GDP growth may hit new high |
BBS projects 6.71pc growth in FY06
Rejaul Karim Byron
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) may accomplish a record 6.71 per cent growth in the current fiscal year, with manufacturing sector showing a robust performance, projects Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
The BBS last week also set its final estimation of GDP growth rate in FY2004-05 at 5.96 per cent, which was 5.38 per cent in its provisional estimate.
A planning ministry source said the bureau has prepared these projections and calculations to help design the next national budget.
To Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Research Director Zaid Bakht the provisional estimate of FY06 GDP growth appears to be achievable.
However, he expressed doubt about the final BBS estimation of FY05 GDP growth and the revised FY04 GDP growth rate, which shows a huge rise from 5.52 per cent to 6.27 per cent.
Zaid said last year agriculture production suffered due to floods, but this year the production in this sector has been good. Since agriculture plays a major role in the GDP, this year it has risen.
According to BBS, the agriculture and forestry sector, which represents 17 per cent of the GDP basket, this year posted a 4.67 per cent growth, compared to 1.80 per cent in FY05.
The manufacturing sector also performed well, Zaid noted, which is evident from the import volume of capital machinery and industrial raw materials. The export from this sector marked a healthy 19 per cent growth this year, he mentioned.
The BIDS research chief however expressed doubt about the sustainability of this year's growth rate, given the ongoing power crisis, which is likely to hit the industrial growth severely.
According to the BBS provisional estimation, the manufacturing sector, which represents 16.5 per cent of the GDP, rose by 10.47 per cent in FY06, whereas its average growth rate has been 6 to 8 per cent in the last five years.
The construction sector rose by 8.37 per cent this year, compared to last year's 8.31 per cent. This sector represents 9 per cent of the GDP basket.
Fishery that accounts for 5.03 per cent of the GDP also grew by 3.89 per cent against 3.64 per cent in FY05.
The transport, storage and communications sector, which represents 10 per cent of the GDP, rose by 8.25 per cent in FY06 compared to 7.92 per cent in FY05.
Wholesale and retail trade representing 14.12 per cent of the GDP marked a 7.26 per cent growth in FY06 compared to last year's 7.06 per cent.
Real estate, renting and business activities representing 8.14 per cent of the GDP have marked a 3.69 per cent growth, which was 3.65 per cent in FY05.
Community, social and personal services representing 7.52 per cent of the GDP marked a 4.08 per cent growth compared to last year's 4.05 per cent.
Among other sectors, mining and quarrying contributed 1.14 per cent to the FY06 GDP, electricity, gas and water 1.64 per cent, financial intermediation 1.70 per cent, public administration 2.76 per cent, education 2.46 per cent, and health and social work 2.25 per cent.
This year mining and quarrying grew by 8.73 per cent, electricity, gas and water 7.72 per cent, financial intermediation 7.12 per cent, public administration 8.21 per cent, education 7.98 per cent, and health and social work 7.13 per cent.
FINAL ESTIMATE OF FY05 GDP GROWTH
The BBS final estimate puts the growth of agriculture and forestry sector in FY2004-05 at 1.80 per cent, which in its provisional estimation was negative, (-0.37 per cent).
In FY05 the growth of manufacturing has been reset at 8.19 per cent from 8.43 per cent in the provisional estimation and construction at 8.31 per cent from 8.69 per cent.
In FY01, the last year of the immediate past Awami League government, the BBS in its provisional estimate set the GDP growth at 6.04 per cent. But, soon after the change of government, the bureau in its final report lowered the percentage to 5.27.
The GDP growth in FY02 was 4.42 per cent, which in FY03 the BBS set it at 5.26 per cent.