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Sunday, December 23, 2012
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Bangladesh rated high

Guardian places it among some countries that could overtake west by 2050

Bangladesh is among a number of emerging countries that could overtake the west by 2050, as they are growing fast, according to The Guardian newspaper.

"As the west remains mired in gloom and even the BRICS start to plateau, attention is turning to this group of countries, many of which not so long ago were rudely dismissed as basket cases," said Larry Elliott, economics editor of the London-based newspaper, in a write-up on Tuesday.

As even BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa] plateau, other countries, from Bangladesh to Mexico, are coming up fast and could overtake the west by 2050, he said.

"They are big. They have young and growing populations. They have invested in infrastructure and education. And they are growing at the sort of rates that make them the envy of the recession-hobbled west."

"…when growth rates for 2013 are chalked up, these are the countries that will dominate the top 20," Elliot said.

While some emerging countries, such as Vietnam, have been hit hard by falling western demand for their exports since the financial crisis of 2007-08, others have been sustaining strong growth rates, he wrote.

"Bangladesh and the Philippines have been helped by remittances sent home from expatriates working overseas. Mexico and Indonesia have generated strong domestic demand from their large populations."

John Hawksworth, chief economist at PricewaterhouseCoopers, said, "There are countries beyond the BRICS that have quite strong long-term growth potential."

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Without proper political leadership a country cannot progress. Civil bureaucracy must flourish under the proper political patronage and with high quality education we should be able to supplement each branch of those efficiently. Currently we have tremendous shortage of young people who are trained to handle technology and similarly we also need young generation to take up high quality business and commerce activities. So, future is in education and that has to be number one (1) priority.

We must introduce entrepreneurship programme immediately. People with innovative ideas along with help from social business model must be financed from state banking sector. Private banking sector must be able to disperse 30% loan compulsorily without failure. If the nation can afford to lose billions through corruption in rental power projects, bank frauds, MLM conspiracy, stock market, railway corruption; why not we simply try this model to create employment?

We need to diversify the way we think; let us create few new ministries: Frozen Food, Jute, Tea, Leather and RMG sectors; all must have dedicated ministry and civil service should be re-think. When you are able to hire highly educated young people directly from market and they can be trained accordingly, why we should recruit through public service commission (BCS). We need to think hybrid.

: Sheikh Monirul Islam, Opee

It is signalling directly that 2013 is going to be a very challenging year economically. West is going to suffer because of the mess they created and people are just about getting to know where they went so horribly wrong? If global economy gets upset, what is going to happen to our remittance earning and revenue from RMG sector? It is getting very critical.

: MAG Osmani


  • rch
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 01:49 AM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    Bangladesh will make tremendous headway within 4-5 years if these two ladies are gone today.

  • Abul U.K.
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 04:09 AM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    The same media here the other day classified Dhaka city is the worst of habitable cities. On the face of it this is no doubt a remarkable forecast. But those who provide country's sizeable remittance through their hard labours them or their dependants are neither the beneficiary nor even the poorest of poor. We can see the reserve is being spent right and left by the politicians and all other high ups. Very recently, there was a big hike out of all proportions in the daily allowances in favour of those fortunate ones. We need selfless patriotic leaders to utilise our forex for the benefit of the nation. Who will dare say BD is a poor country when they see our leaders and high ups make such luxurious visits mostly on frivolous grounds. Poorest of the poor do not even get a tablet free from our public funds.

  • Saleh Tanveer
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 05:48 AM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    Yes, Bangladesh's possibility is bright; but that is only a possibility that is not going to be realised if we do not grow out of our system of political dysfunction and increasing predatory behaviour of political leaders and criminal elements they harbour.

  • A Self Exiled Bangladeshi
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 07:48 AM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    I believe we have the potential. But, not if we continue to govern ourselves as we have for last 41 years. A promise of our nation that is held hostage and plundered by incompetent few.

  • ali
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 09:53 AM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    I agree with Tuhin. I was born there. I live in NY for past 20 yrs. I love going there to visit families and etc. but I would not invest a dim in a country where no law and order. Ruled by two women who don't have equal US high school diploma. This joke. But I guess u have to see where Singapore was 30yrs ago.

  • Asad Zaman
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 10:05 AM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    John Hawksworth underscored also a crucial point that some of the emerging countries (including Bangladesh) “have a lot of potential for catch-up as long as they have broadly growth-friendly policies”. However, the GROWTH-FRIENDLY POLICIES (and of course the growth-friendly Politics) -- which is a key to the growth and welfare of Bangladesh – is totally INCOMPATIBLE with the BNP and Jamaat-Shibirs’ recent violent agitation activities -- ranging from nationwide road-blockades, arson attacks on public as well as private vehicles, and the vicious terror culture of beating policeman by his own rifle, stabbing and attempting to gouge out a cop's eyes and to set him on fire in the name of agitation or hartal. Without going to the parliament, if the activists or hooligans of oppositions (or their alliance) continue such violent and destructive activities, Bangladesh will never reach its goal (Shonar Bangla). If they truly love to see the country’s expected development and people’s welfare, the oppositions must adopt growth-friendly programme instead of such violent means.

  • Hakim
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 10:42 AM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    If we can ensure that everybody does their duty in the country; if we have an honest, patriotic leadership with a vision; if we can bring corruption to a minimum and if our education system becomes up to date, being free from dirty student-teacher politics and geared to the needs of the country, we have every reason to believe that we are on course to surpassing the European economies, as predicted by the Guardian. It is very possible.

  • Dr M A Obaydullah
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 04:25 PM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    One of the readers of the Guardian has commented that some developing countries are growing faster than rich nations, but is this growth sustainable? Much of it is based on the commodity price boom, which is led by China buying raw materials to feed its export market. As recession hits the west, growth in China – which is hugely reliant on exports to the US and Europe – is beginning to slow. So, don't be too elated!

  • Iftikhar-ul-Awwal
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 12:31 PM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    Such long term forecasts can only hold good if we as a nation take the right policy decisions to challenges facing the nation today. The first impediment would be to bring down the population growth rate which is not sustainable. This is required in view of our limited territory and need for arable land and housing, etcetera. Second, we got to take bold decisions to utilise our underground mineral resources, especially that of coal. Side by side, proper planning is required to utilise the maritime zones for hydrocarbon and fishery. Thirdly, the democratisation processes within must mature, bringing in peace and security. Fourthly, we need to secure our territorial boundary and as such we need to build up a strong modern defence force, even though at first glance it may seem wastage of national resources. Fifthly, more investment is needed in educating our future generations and in the development of scientific, technological and medical research. Sixthly, we must accelerate the development of our infrastructure, especially in regard to ports, airports, good roads, bridges and connectivity with the rural areas. Seventh, energy sector needs serious attention. We will require at least ten times of the present need of electricity by 2050. Options like gas importation through pipeline from Iran or central Asia or hydro electric power from Nepal may answer our needs.

  • Iftikhar-ul-Awwal
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 02:29 PM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    Nuclear power plants to generate electricity should be avoided in a densely populated country like ours unlike that of France, Japan and other economically advanced countries. Industrialization, on the other hand, must be well planned keeping labor and environmental issues into mind. Skill development to run next generation capital intensive industries through technical and practical training is vital. Thanks.

  • OpeeMonir
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 12:13 AM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    Almost 4% of the total GDP growth (5.5 to 6% projected) is alone from the agricultural sector while foreign remittance of around 13 billion $ maintains our current account of foreign reserve & balance of payment, while RMG sector bringing us an almost equally 12.5 billion $ making both remittance and RMG sector contributing just above 1% of that GDP growth.

    RMG sector workers are basically from village while remittance earners are 95% from our village population leaving behind only the other most vital organ agriculture sector which is 100% contribution of our poor mass, the villagers. I think we are economically the most successful country in the world which makes us unique. Who enjoy the benefit of all these: of course the BAIRA members, BKMEA & BGMEA members, and a handful of the big commodity traders. We all know about VVIP, VIP & CIP; how many CIP goes to the villagers and the poor mass; none?

  • tuhin
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 12:32 AM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    I hate such fake predictation.

  • Vampire knight
    Sunday, December 23, 2012 12:54 AM GMT+06:00 (163 weeks ago)

    Interesting! 38 years ahead. I wish to be alive till then.

    Nothing is impossible, provided that we have a Mahathir Mohammad of Malaysia or a Lee of Singapore.





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