BJP, thirteenth time lucky?
Reshufle saffronises NDA
Praful Bidwai, writes from New Delhi
If a Prime Minister's test of leadership is that s/he must have her/his way in reshuffling the Cabinet, then Mr Vajpayee has all but failed it. His "routine" reshuffle -- for the 13th time -- has mutated into a first rate crisis for the National Democratic Alliance. Mr Vajpayee promised an "NDA-centric" reshuffle: Ms Mamata Banerjee would be (certainly) and Farooq Abdullah (probably) be inducted; a DMK nominee would replace the critically ill Murasoli Maran, and "overburdened" ministers would shed multiple portfolios. However, the heavily BJP-dominated reshuffle saw Mr Ajit Singh quit, the DMK reduced to irrelevance, the "overburdened" ministers continuing, and relations between the BJP and its allies souring. The reshuffle has produced India's largest-ever Council of Ministers (81 members), but no finality. Mr Vajpayee says: "There will be another reshuffle soon". Mr Vajpayee allowed himself to be outmanoeuvred by Mr L.K. Advani, backed by party president Venkaiah Naidu. He made big concessions to Hindutva hardliners by inducting Swami Chinmayananda and Mr Prahlad Patel, and placating Senapati Bal Thackeray. The BJP's credibility has further eroded. The NDA has been so weakened that it might not fight the next Lok Sabha elections unitedly. Mr Vajpayee's original reshuffle scheme fell apart when the Advani-Naidu duo vetoed Dr Abdullah's induction and started luring dissident Trinamool MP Sudip Bandopadhyay by sidelining Ms Mamata Banerjee. Furious, Ms Banerjee cancelled her Delhi flight and accused Mr Vajpayee of breaking "coalition dharma". Ms Banerjee isn't a great friend, but a bad enemy, to have. She has a strong handle against the BJP: it tried to split Mr Bandopadhyay from Trinamool, but meekly capitulated to Mr Thackeray when he replaced Mr Vikhe-Patil with political novice Subodh Mohite. The BJP's double standards aren't new. Last year, it bowed to Mr Thackeray's diktat to drop Vajpayee favourite Suresh Prabhu because he wasn't filling the Sena's coffers enough. That, and the decision to nominate Mr Mohite, come from the senapati's new distrust of all those with non-Sena backgrounds. Mr Thackeray is also under pressure from the Sena's "Maharashtra-only" lobby to replace the party's non-Marathi representatives (e.g. Sanjay Nirupam and Pritish Nandy). It matters little that Mr Mohite totally lacks political or administrative experience. The reshuffle shows that allies like Trinamool -- recently routed in W. Bengal's local elections -- and DMK/MDMK don't matter much to the BJP. It's playing footsie with Ms Jayalalithaa, whose pro-Hindutva tilt pleases it immensely. So, the BJP kept Commerce with Mr Jaitley although he also holds Law. In the MDMK's case, the CBI raid on Mr Gingee Ramachandran's assistant couldn't have taken place without Mr Advani's approval. All this speaks for itself. The BJP has a record of deserting and humiliating allies: recall its ditching of the Socialists in 1978 and Mr V.P. Singh in 1990. More recently, it allied with Mr Bansi Lal and dumped him. It has dismissed Mr Ajit Singh and marginalised people like Messrs Ram Vilas Paswan and Ramakrishna Hegde, while mauling the JD(U) with repeated raids. What happened to Mr Haren Pandya, who revolted against Mr Narendra Modi, remains a gory mystery. The BJP's "secular allies" are partly to blame for this. They have been mute spectators to Hindutva's brazen takeover of education, culture and more -- and to the Gujarat pogrom. With the reshuffle, the BJP has reinforced its Hindutva agenda. The biggest pointer is the Chinmayananda's induction under Mr Advani. He is a member of VHP's Margadarshak Mandal and a founder-member of the Ramjanmabhoomi Mukti Yagya Samiti, created in 1984 to spearhead the temple "movement". Chinmayananda is a communal rabble-rouser. He attended the latest dharma sansad and recently shared an anti-Vajpayee sangh forum. Only slightly better is Mr Prahlad Pate l -- a male version of Ms Uma Bharati. He reportedly faces charges under 77 sections of the Indian Penal Code. He recently sponsored a Parliament resolution urging a law banning cow slaughter. Of these Hindutva hardliners, Mr Vajpayee himself admitted: "I have taken a step. You may draw your own conclusions." An even stronger indication of the BJP's pro-Hindutva turn is its support to the trishul campaign and Mr Vinay Katiyar's fiery jagran yatra in UP. The yatra is a desperate attempt to garner votes while maintaining the alliance with Ms Mayawati despite its problems --including a virtual Rajput revolt and upper-caste backlash. Mr Vajpayee inducted Hindutva hardliners, but he didn't even try to "balance" his Cabinet. Mr Nagmani's appointment rewards those who split Mr Laloo Yadav's RJD. Mr Kailash Meghwal is Mr Bhairon Singh Shekhawat's nominee. Although Vice-President, Mr Shekhawat continues to play day-to-day politics in Rajasthan. Mr Meghwal is known as his hatchet-man and Hindutva hardliner -- not a Dalit leader. Mr Vajpayee, then, has yielded substantial ground to Mr Advani, and bent to pressures from other BJP power-centres and industrial lobbies. Look at the power wielded by Ms Sushma Swaraj, who continues to hold two portfolios and of course, the two Aruns, who are among the handful of faces whom the BJP can showcase as its "modern", "competent" men attuned to industry lobbies in telecom, information technology, etc. The BJP has now all the major ministries barring Defence and all the plum portfolios too -- Rural Development (budget, Rs. 14,000 crores), Civil Aviation, Commerce... Mr Ajit Singh was sacked for voicing farmers' problems, which are indeed vital in UP. Mr Singh wasn't the first NDA minister to speak at cross-purposes with his colleagues. He was removed so that the BJP can consolidate its badly fraying upper-caste base. The savarnas are so important to the BJP that it has ardently endorsed Mr Ashok Gehlot's upper-caste "economic quota" after first calling it a mere "political gimmick". The BJP has consolidated its grip on the NDA -- year after year, issue by issue, reshuffle after Cabinet reshuffle. But it has demonstrated the limits of Mr Vajpayee's leadership -- and its own boundless opportunism. This could cost it heavily in the coming Assembly elections. Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.
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