I regret I could not meet Mr. Gujral in Dhaka in April, whom I met only once about three years ago through the courtesy of Prof. Rehman Sobhan. That was when we were attending a regional cooperation meeting in Katmandu. I thought as a most sensible Indian leader he never played international diplomatic poker and would never stoop to a bluff, nor he would try to bluff anyone.

We do not have many friends in India but being a very respected person in the political circle of the sub-continent Mr. Gujral is known to be a well wisher of Bangladesh. Apparently, the US's Iraq domination syndrome (IDS) has influenced Mr. Gujral as well. Otherwise, how could a person of his stature say, "I don't want to tell you that you should export gas to India, you can export gas to any country of you choosing (DS, April 28, 2003)". It is beyond a common man's understanding that a former PM of India can make such overt suggestion as to what we should do with our gas. Otherwise, why on earth he is reported to have said in a meeting organized by South Asian Human Rights (SAHR), "You have to ensure proper use of gas. Either you export it to any country or set up gas-run chemical plant." At least Mr. Gujral is on record that he did not interfere in Bangladesh's internal decision rather he endeavoured to resolve international issues between the two governments, such as water or border issue. Now what happened?

Based on available information, no one would charge or allege conspiracy nor would raise a finger on his remarks. I would humbly like to submit that as against India's gas reserve of over 30 Tcf including the latest discovery, Bangladesh's proven reserve is barely 6.2 Tcf (Nagorik Committee Report, November 2002) while the demand is likely to be 13.70 Tcf by 2020 (Petrobangla, April, 2001). The country would thus find itself exhausted of the current reserve of gas even before 2019. The National Gas Committee (as per its report submitted to the government in August 2002) indicated the depletion of present gas reserve in the next 11 to 12 years. Apparently the government is quietly sitting on the "recommendation-less" 273-page report for the past about nine-months. The government did not offer any formal position regarding acceptance or rejection of the findings of the reports as yet. In one of the Centre for Policy Dialogue's Task Force Meeting (held on 22 April 2003) on Development and Governance of Energy, the Chairman of the National Gas Utilisation Committee (Mr. Azimuddin Ahmed) sadly indicated that he didn't know about the fate of the report.

However, assuming that the government has taken cognisance of the reports, would it not be intriguing to a common citizen when he or she learns that "the Committee also arrives at the finding, after in-depth examination, that under the short and mid-term demand-supply projections, there is a problem of short supply which militates against export of gas from the current reserves" (Page XIII GUC Report, August, 2002)? The important second aspect highlighted by the Committee was that they constantly kept in view the paramount requirement of energy security, particularly in the backdrop of the demand-supply imbalance from 2014-15 onwards. One must be alarmed when the Committee says, taking the possibility of serious shortfall in not too distant a future, even import of gas may be necessary as a last resort if no discoveries are made into consideration. In these circumstances, the Committee underscored, first, the inadequacy of the current reserves for export of any volume; second, the need for extensive exploration; and last, limited export from new discoveries by the IOCs. The last observation of the Committee is simply a nebulous idea. The limited export concept has neither been quantified (50 million cft/day or 500 million cft/day) nor has been analysed from any perspective. Mr. Azimuddin's long civil service career might have influenced him to incorporate such a statement. To my knowledge, no one ever examined this "limited export" but the hon'ble State Minister for Energy has found the expression "export of gas" and immediately bought the idea for his consumption.

I am also amazed that the former Indian PM said in an exchange with journalists on 27 April, 2003 that, "To my mind, domestic burning of gas is most uneconomic of this natural resource". What else could we do in Bangladesh, as gas is the only commercial energy available for use now? Almost 72 percent of commercial energy utilisation depends on natural gas, including over 50 percent use for generation of electricity (Task Force Report, 4 June 2003) since there is no other alternative source of energy in the country. In India, for instance, almost 55 percent of total primary energy is accounted for by coal and the share of oil is 31 percent. Gas has witnessed a major gain to notch up to a share of 8 percent by 2002. Besides, India's hydroelectricity potential is large. Through bilateral arrangement, India imports electricity (hydroelectricity) at a very cheap price from both Nepal and Bhutan. India is now pursuing import of natural gas in LNG form or piped gas from Turkmenistan-Iran via Pakistan. Like the United States, India's appetite for energy is huge. And they would like to import energy from any country. Did Mr. Gujral ever inquired whether India has ever thought of sharing surplus electricity from Farraka power plant (perhaps 2100 megawatt under one umbrella) with Bangladesh? Incidentally, India's Energy Security Plan cover 50 years but Indian experts (even some Bangladeshi experts) consider a 50-year energy security for Bangladesh as absurd. It is unfortunate that India is consciously lobbying for import of gas on a priority basis from Bangladesh.

Nuruddin Mahmud Kamal is a retired government official.