Comitted to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 4 Num 69 Mon. August 04, 2003  
   
Editorial


Post breakfast
A region's reconstruction


Afghanistan, nearly two years after becoming the focal point of the West's War on Terror, remains a troubled, disorderly, half-ruined land perennially on the brink of chaos. The little infrastructure it once had has been smashed by decades of war and civil war. Roads, electricity and water are as rare as jobs for the two million refugees that have returned home. Pro-Taleban guerrilla forces, according to international journalists still prowl many parts of the country, hunted by thousands of US and other western troops.

Elsewhere, powerful regional governors and warlords openly ignore the current Afghan government's demands for taxes. Opium poppies are still being planted, sometimes in fields never before used for illegal drug crops. This is indeed sad and disappointing.

It may be recalled that as the war ended, in January, 2002, a multinational conference held in Tokyo to kick-start Afghan reconstruction heard World Bank estimates that the bill might reach $12 billion over five years and $18 billion over a decade. However, only about $5 billion was actually pledged by World Bank, European Union and national donors. Of that, so far, according to available reports, only -- $1.8 billion has actually trickled in, with delays. Most of this has evaporated in meeting emergency needs- medicine, tents and firewood.

President Karzai of Afghanistan is presently carrying out a sensitive task. He has less than one year to go to put together a constitution and hold elections. This, for obvious reasons is proving to be difficult. He has already recently been to London seeking more foreign troops. He also wants his friends to arrange for his government more powers, so that he can operate freely across more of his country. He correctly believes that this needs to be the first step to bring forth security that is required for reconstruction.

We must remember that Karzai has both a symbolic as well as a practical role. To those who are opposed to forces of reaction and intolerance, his success is vital. If he fails, the whole afghan project would be in serious trouble. It is this aspect which needs to be remembered. In this context, it would be equally useful to seriously consider the question of US troops joining forces with international peacekeepers in expanding stabilisation operations across the country when NATO takes charge in August Mr Karzai also needs additional funds and that should be made available. Disbursement of such funds may also be expedited and the process made simpler.

Nation-building and reconstruction are not as easy as many think. It is a complicated, complex process which has it its own dynamics. The inter-action of the many factors need to be carefully handled.

Carl Bildt, the former Prime Minister of Sweden, writing recently in the International Herald Tribune has made some observations. He has pointed out that 'in the wake of the war in Iraq, the world is learning once again that it is easier to destroy a regime with military might than to build a new state out of the bomb craters'.

The situation in Iraq is also a cause for concern. Thomas L Frideman, commenting also in the same newspaper raises a few interesting questions. He reflects on the state of affairs existing in this region and says -- " the right reason for this war was the need to partner with the Iraqis, post Saddam, to build a progressive Arab regime. Because the real weapons of mass destruction that threaten America were never Saddam's missiles. The real weapons are the growing number of angry, humiliated young Arabs and Muslims, who are produced by failed or failing Arab states -- young people who hate America more than they love life. Helping to build a decent Iraq as a model for others and solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are the necessary steps for defusing the ideas of mass destruction, which are what really threaten America."

The points raised by the eminent journalist are important. The war is now over and we have seen many mass graves. The stated reason of the presence of WMD has now been buttressed with moral reasons. Nevertheless, on the eventual rebuilding of Iraq will depend whether terrorism can be done away with. In a manner of speaking, the future of the Middle East, rides on the 'Coalition' building a different Iraq. We must not forget that.

There have been some steps forward. According to reports coming out of Iraq, some areas of Iraq have about 20 hours of electricity a day, nearly ten hospitals are now functioning on a rudimentary basis and more than 8,000 policemen are assisting in the process of restoring law an order. Improvements are taking place in bits and pieces, but probably need to be expedited.

The US Administrator in Iraq, L Paul Bremer, has been entrusted with sensitive aspects of governance. He is supposed to assist the Iraqis in convening a constitutional conference and also work out an exit strategy. In this regard, he will help to determine how long the United States will retain a significant presence in Iraq. This, one presumes, will depend on how fast the Iraqis can write a constitution and get it ratified by the Iraqi people. It will possibly also be influenced by how soon elections can be held in Iraq.

Then too, there is the question of the great percentage of the Iraqis being unemployed. This is a ticking bomb and needs to be tackled with determination. Creating a small Iraqi army might resolve the problem only partially. It is the educated section, who need to be brought into the system and here flexibility needs to be the operative word. Past political affiliations might have been due to duress and so should not always be the bar to future employment in the new system.

What we have in Iraq today is the "mother of all nation-building." For the sake of peace and stability in the region, international efforts have to succeed.

The world has witnessed in the past few decades of successes and failures in nation-building, be it in Haiti, Kosovo or East Timor. Bringing normality back in Bosnia has also been an ongoing operation for many years. It was initially believed that nation-building would be completed in Bosnia in a year. Six years later, under the stewardship of the fourth High Representative, matters are still far from satisfactory. These were the easy cases, simple compared to Afghanistan and Iraq. Yet, given care and co-operation, the task can be achieved.

The following measures may be considered in this regard:

- The question of limiting the international security presence of Kabul deserves second thought. As long as the gun remains the fastest way to power and property, there simply will not be room for democratic politics and entrepreneurship. With national police in disarray, there is no alternative to using soldiers and armies to keep order for the moment;

- It must be remembered that the central challenge is not just reconstruction but also nation-building. It is imperative that the physical scars of war have to be removed. This is costly and will take time. However, building a political infrastructure is the key. This alone can unite and bring order. It in turn will create a suitable infrastructure for economic governance, growth and jobs. In Iraq in particular, a constitutional role needs to be identified that will unite Arabs, Kurds, Turkoman and Assyrians. In addition, an equation needs to be agreed upon regarding representation of the different sects and faiths on a mutually acceptable basis. Jurists, both secular and Islamic could assist in this process. The Organisation of the Islamic Conference, based in Jeddah, the Al-Azhar University in Cairo and other Institutions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iran, Malaysia and Pakistan may also be able to help; and --

- While it would be important to focus on the humanitarian aspects, that should not pre-dominate over long-term issues. Several significant aspects related to the re-emergence of Iraq and Afghanistan are still not being addressed with priority and that should take place. This includes economic questions like currency, customs, taxation systems, commercial law, banking, debt restructuring and accessing international capital markets. If these factors can be brought in place, it will lead not only to job creation but also to the emergence of a middle class, the key to long term stability.

There will, in all probability be disagreement over the state-building process. There will be opposition from within the vested quarters in Iraq. It might be useful therefore to associate the United Nations in this regard. Some form of UN framework might help. It normally does, but is not always a guarantee. In peace, the coalition after all has to be broader than during the time of war.

This is going to be a hot, long summer in Iraq. Amidst all of this a new Iraqi authority has to be created, and sooner the better. Only this will enable the Coalition to avoid a campaign that could be prolonged, and in which progress is not as linear as the expeditious march toward Baghdad.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador.