Only two days before, American Nobel Laureate Professor Joseph Stiglitz almost categorically negated the very concept of gas export. The rumour in Dhaka is that Prof. Stiglitz's down to earth observation has unnerved the policy planners in Bangladesh. Rational thinkers and the civil society genuinely felt that the country being the lowest per capita consumer severely lacked adequate reserves of energy resources for its own consumption, let alone having exportable surplus. The recently concluded National Gas Utilisation Committee in its final report (submitted on 27 August 2002) stated that the present reserve of gas would exhaust by 2020, if not earlier, and the country will have to import energy thereafter. Quoting Prof. Stiglitz (DS 16 August, 2003) it was reported that if Bangladesh decides to export gas now, it will have to import it 15 to 20 years later and ultimately be faced to pay two-way transportation costs. Prof. Stiglitz further stated that, "it is better for Bangladesh to keep its gas reserve for the future.......Gas reserve is your security against any volatility of energy prices on the international market. One should be very careful about the pace of extraction". However, one reason for gas export may be to convert the resource into money, but money always do not contribute to desired development, Prof. Stiglitz said, citing the example of Nigeria (where in less than fifteen years the per capita income came down to almost one third even with huge oil export). "If Bangladesh exports even a portion of gas quickly, you will have to be dependent on import later", said the Nobel Laureate. Yet, it is amazing that Ambassador Thomas commenting on the remarks of American Noble Laureate economist said, " I don't know if he has any experience of natural gas engineering..... And with all respect for him, I disagree with him" (DS 18 August 2003).

Meanwhile, the media reported: "Gas Export meeting shelved indefinitely" (DS 17 August 2003). In fact, a high level meeting on the gas sector scheduled to take place at the Prime Minister's office on 17 August has been postponed indefinitely. "The meeting will be held some other time," Mr. AKM Musharraf Hossain, State Minister of Energy told BBC soon afterwards, though his voice was choked at times. He however claimed he discussed the gas export issue with senior ministers and none opposed the idea (whether any one at all supported was not disclosed for unknown reason). The staff correspondent of DS however reported that couple of policy markers and majority of the party leaders opposed the export. The report added, "We are aware that majority of the people oppose it. And if we take such a decision, we will unnecessarily jeopardise our popularity. We are in a better position by not exporting gas". It now appears to us that the proverbial Dilli ka laddu coincides with the idea. If you eat the laddu you repent and if you don't you still repent. Mr. AKM Musharraf Hossain is perhaps trying to convince himself as well as others that, "eat the laddu and repent"! Whether he will get time to repent is indeed an issue of interest.

Incidentally, the state minister reiterated his earlier statement, "those who oppose gas export are in small number" (the daily Janakantha, 8 June, 2003). The question is: has there been a survey on the subject of gas export? Yes, a recent on-line survey indicated that almost 83 percent oppose export (Bhorer Kagaz, 20 August 2003). Nevertheless, the opinion of an economist like Prof. Stiglitz was an ultimate blow to the export proposition.

At this point we recall the story of proverbial goat particularly for the benefit of those who are not likely to know it, ever. A villager bought a black goat in the evening from a hut (village market) and was walking it home. On the way some crooks saw it and hatched a quick plan to get the goat. One by one they started walking beside the villager expressing shock that he should be taking a dog by a leash. When he heard the same expression of shock and surprise from the fourth man in quick succession the simple minded villager felt embarrassed and became doubtful about the creature. Eventually, he let it go. The four rouges had a feast that night having befooled the gullible man. But those who come from abroad are very important persons known for their ranks and many achievements in their respective areas. The strategy is also similar. They have one concerted plan to pursue Bangladesh to change her mind on gas export. It, in fact, is a modern version of the psychological assault resorted to in the story. In this case, it seems to us that those intelligent persons are not lying for their own national interest, rather interest of their new found friend!

Though unconnected with the story, we recall with agony some high profile visits in the nineties. The first to try taking us out of our resolve was Mr. Dick Chenny, now Vice President of the U.S. Government. As a senior executive of the Oil Company Helliburton, he made visits to Bangladesh to prepare the ground for early export of gas. He also unduly influenced the government to allow Helliburton/Cairn to start production at Sangu gas field (in the offshore Bangladesh) pending proper reserve estimate and certification as per international gas field practice. In the meantime the oil lobby in U.S. found a willing companion in Bill Clinton, then President of the United State. He came to Dhaka during his South Asian trip only for a day. But even within such a tight schedule, he exhorted Bangladesh government to be ready and willing to export gas. He argued that new energy technology would emerge within the next two decades making gas less attractive or make it just another among many alternative energy sources. His visit was preceded by his energy secretary Bill Richardson's several trips. In both the episodes one local senior bureaucrat played an unclean role and connived with the foreigners. Nonetheless, everybody witnessed with eyes open that Bangladesh was suddenly being courted with all ardour by the mightiest power in the world.

Soon, pressure on behalf of one American oil company (Unocal) also came through multinational institutions such as the World Bank (see DS August 2003). The oil lobby then found a new method. They started using heavy weight economists. Nobel Laureate Prof. Kenneth Arrow came to Dhaka representing an environmental outfit. His visit was surely more connected with gas export from Bangladesh than anything else. He couldn't hide the actual intent. We were shocked. Why would a Nobel Laureate be interested in gas export to India by Bangladesh? Because the oil lobby wanted him to do so, that's why. In this connection we also would like to remind our readers that we wrote an article in the Daily Star- Natural Gas export: Cautious steps are necessary (DS 5-6 November 2001) shortly after the government declared about the need for gas export in October 2001 (when coincidentally Unocal submitted its gas export proposal on 29 October, 2001). Then came Jeffry Sachs, who claimed, "there is no sense in keeping energy under the ground for 20 years, let alone for 50 years". Use it and develop it, which sounded like an experienced well wisher! But really it was not so. These million dollar advice flowed into the minds of our politicians and bureaucrats -- all free of cost!

We would be doing injustice if we didn't mention about the role of the predecessors of Mr. Thomas. Ambassador Holzman and Ambassador Mary Ann Peters respectively almost dedicated themselves during 1996-2003 to influence two consecutive political governments of Bangladesh to export gas. People of Bangladesh didn't accept their arguments.

Given a priority to the domestic energy security to help reduce dependency on oil import, there is a need to enhance domestic gas use (currently gas use substitutes about 10 million tons of oil equivalent and saves around U.S $ 2 billion annually), particularly emphasising on more power plants in the western zone of the country, which is energy hungry. The country's policy planners must also appreciate that without investments in gas infrastructure development and installation of power plants across the river Jamuna the rate of gas consumption would be slow for some years, yet as a part of the safety net approach gas must be conserved and not wasted by way of export, as advised by the so many 'well-wishers' of Bangladesh.

Nuruddin M. Kamal is a retired Additional Secretary and former Chairman, Bangladesh Power Development Board, M/s S.K.M Abdullah, Dr. Mujibur Rahman and Prof. Hussain Mansoor, are former Chairmen, respectively, of Petrobangla, Dr. Nurul Islam is Professor, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology and Dr. Badrul Imam is Professor, Dhaka University.