This was clearly an afterthought -- two hours after the August 25 Cabinet meeting.

This shows the BJP in poor light. It demands a revision of the view that the BJP's ideology may be controversial, but its leadership is astute, and always stays one step ahead of its adversaries.

UP's BJP leaders didn't have a clue to Ms Mayawati's likely moves -- even after she told the media the previous day to expect "spicy news". Meanwhile, she drafted an elaborate 30-page letter to the Governor.

To cover up its political ineptitude, the BJP now claims that Ms Mayawati's recommendation to the Governor to dissolve the Assembly is invalid because it came after she had lost her legislative majority. But she commanded a majority when she held the Cabinet meeting! Not one BJP minister resigned for the next two days despite the "withdrawal of support".

It is constitutionally irrelevant for the BJP to claim that Ms Mayawati made her decision "unilaterally", without "consulting" her allies. Under the Westminster system, which India follows, the Chief Minister's word is final.

In any case, according to The Indian Express, Ms Mayawati had obtained her ministers' prior signatures on a blank sheet. As to how the BJP supposedly a "party with a difference" agreed to this servile and humiliating arrangement defies comprehension.

But let that pass. Let us also not go into the rationale of the Governor's decision not to dissolve the Assembly.

What is material is the pathological opportunism underlying the BJP-BSP alliance. Ms Mayawati openly says the two parties shared neither ideology nor programme, only power. Why else would she ally with a party wedded to casteist Manuvad -- the antithesis of Dalitism?

The BJP is more culpable than the BSP for this unprincipled politics. It allied with the BSP for the third time -- with its eyes wide open. Unlike the BSP, which says it needs short-term power to advance the Dalit cause, the BJP claims adherence to "principle".

The BSP's UP social base is unshakable. That's not true of the BJP. Now even the "novelty factor" hasn't worn out.

Thanks to its third "honeymoon" with the BSP, much of the BJP's upper-caste support has eroded. Earlier, most of its OBC support-base moved out when former CM Kalyan Singh was expelled.

It would be a great surprise if the BJP retains even half of its current seats in UP: 87 (of a total of 403), compared to the SP's 142 and the BSP's 110.

The BJP's situation nationally is hardly better. The BJP and allies, forecasts a friendly India Today-ORG-Marg poll, will lose 55 Lok Sabha seats (from the present 304), reducing the NDA to a minority.

The BJP's own national tally appears certain to drop from 182 to under 150. Without the BSP's help, the BJP might win barely 100 seats -- reflecting its "natural" status.

The collapse of the BJP-BSP alliance in UP will have an immediate impact on the four Hindi-heartland Assemblies (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi) where elections are due. Without the BSP's crutch -- through its 6-to-10 percent vote -- the BJP could face a defeat in all four states, especially if the Congress reaches a seat understanding with the BSP.

This, on top of reverses everywhere except Gujarat, and growing general unpopularity due to misgovernance, spells serious trouble. In the next Lok Sabha elections, the BJP faces disaster, and loss of credibility, leading to yet more electoral-political defeats.

So the party will try devious and desperate means to avert marginalisation and collapse. Amongst these are: communal polarisation through sectarian issues (e.g. Ayodhya, cowslaughter), and terrorist violence, for which to blame Muslims, with or without proof.

The BJP can stoop very low. It can incite and use communal violence as a strategy of political mobilisation. Other parties may occasionally flirt with communalism or soft-Hindutva. But none (barring the Shiv Sena) has systematically used anti-minority violence to garner votes like the BJP.

Amidst the BJP's grave crisis comes the report of the Archaeological Survey of India on the Ayodhya excavation. The BJP will use it to press the temple demand. But the "final report" is thoroughly rigged. None of the ASI's earlier "interim" reports even mentioned the possibility of a temple having pre-existed the Babri.

According to reputed archaeologists and historians, the "evidence" of a 10th century temple was smuggled in at the last stage, dodging independent scrutiny. It cites as key evidence 50 "pillar bases" with carvings bearing lotus motifs, etc. which are "distinctive features" associated with north Indian temples.

However, archaeologists Suraj Bhan and Supriya Verma and historians Irfan Habib and R.C. Thakran, who have visited the site many times, say "no pillar bases" exist. They don't belong to a single period; they aren't aligned, and the material doesn't suggest a temple. "When I was there, I did not see any 'massive structure' beneath the Babri mosque," says Prof Thakran.

The "pillar base" is an old red herring. In 1975 too, pro-Hindutva archaeologist BB Lal claimed to have excavated "pillar bases". This claim was convincingly refuted by archaeologist D. Mandal. To establish a temple's pre-existence, what's needed is not figurines or carvings, but a sizable structure, with clearly defined walls, plinth, base, etc. That has not been found.

The BJP will try to capitalise on popular ignorance of archaeology, and play on "patriotic" sentiments and false pride about Indian civilisation. It will stoke feelings of revenge and present our religious minorities as villains. It must be stopped in its tracks.

Postscript: Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav's appointment as CM has raised high expectations, especially about the Ayodhya-case chargesheet against Mr Advani and about a secular, non-vindictive, agenda. Mr Yadav must not disappoint.

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.