During the last three decades the Arab states enjoyed unprecedented prosperity because of their income from oil revenue. How much of this prosperity could bring real benefit to the common Arabs is a moot point. Where relationship between the people and the ruling class is just like the subject and the ruler the question of equitable distribution of wealth becomes irrelevant. When all the wealth belongs to the creator (Allah) the common Arabs believe that it is rather the will of God that only the born fortunate should enjoy the greater portion of wealth.

The western world suddenly (1973) realised that oil is a critical factor in modern economy; thus more attention is needed for its protection and development. The increase in oil revenue could not make the Arab states conscious about the need for their solidarity or security. They were made to believe that the western world will look after their well being. However, the Arabs started to think that non-Arab Muslims are also their well wishers and their support is necessary for their strength and prosperity since the Gulf war of 1991. It is still surprising that there exists a big gap in understanding between the Shia and the Sunni communities. Shia persecution is going on for the last several hundred years. It is perhaps difficult for even a common educated Sunni Muslim to accept with good grace the development of Shia community though religion should be viewed as a purely private affair.

Apart from Shia-Sunni division the Arab-non-Arab factor is a serious impediment to developing a strong Islamic community worldwide. The Arabs, probably due to their close relationship with Prophet Muhammad (sm) consider themselves superior to non-Arab Muslims, though there is no provision for making any differentiation among Muslims. In fact it is perhaps difficult for the Arabs to accept the equality of men because of their close affinity to tribal culture.

The Muslim-Jew conflict is as old as the religion of Islam itself. If Islam believes in no compulsion of religion, if it believes in respecting other religions it is perhaps time for Islamic scholars to find out some acceptable solution for developing better understanding between the Muslims and the Jews. It is true that the Jews always showed hostile feeling towards the followers of Prophet Mohammad (sm) during his lifetime, they (Jews) must realise that circumstances have changed a lot since then. They have a population of only 11 million against 1200 million Muslims throughout the world. Even in the USA the Muslim population is seven million. The technological gap is gradually narrowing down between the Arabs and the Jews. It may not be very advisable for them to rely so heavily on the strength of US.

The result of Iraq invasion by the US led forces was easily anticipated. Iraqi armed forces were simply no match for alliance forces equipped with the most modern weapons. Moreover, Iraqi forces were kept under forced deprivation since the Gulf War of 1991. In fact it is commendable that the forces of Saddam (composed of Baath, Militia, Fidayeens and Republican Guards) could withstand the relentless attack of the alliance forces for so many days. It is alleged that had there been no betrayal by a major part of Saddam forces and extension of cooperation by the Shia community in general to the alliance forces, a clear victory by them would have been much more costlier.

Despite a victory peace has certainly not been established in Iraq. The alliance forces are constantly facing hostile reception from the Iraqi rebels. Both Bush and Blair are trying hard to convince their peoples about the justification of the Iraq war. Both of them appear to have failed so far. The alliance forces, it is reported, are tired and want to go back to their respective countries. The relentless guerilla type war has made them nervous. The Bush-Blair Alliance is desperately trying to increase the strength by bringing in additional forces from friendly countries. Around 22 countries have so far reported to have responded to Bush's call. The major powers, however, agree to assist in Iraq's reconstruction only under UN supervision and not under US command. So far US has not conceded to this demand.

Setting up of an interim government to establish a democratic civilian government has proved to be much more complex and difficult than envisaged by the invaders. Keeping Iraqis together is a great problem. Saddam's harsh dictatorship kept the people together through intimidation. Kurdis and majority of Shia community were against the Saddam regime. Now the Kurdis want autonomy and the Shia tribes are asking for greater participation in the state activities. Bush administration is disappointed because the Iraqis desire freedom only under Iraqi leadership and not under American domination. They refuse to accept American prescription of democracy. Bush-Blair alliance has realised that democracy or liberation cannot be attained through B-52 or satellite guided bombs. Iraqis cannot be fooled to gain the control of its oil. The Iraqis have understood very well that the main interest of the alliance is Iraqi oil and certainly not their liberation. The Americans established base in Kuwait not for protection of the Kuwaits but for the greater interest of the Israelis.

US administration does not want that UN should have the key role in reconstruction of Iraq. As per Geneva convention the invaders are responsible for reconstruction. Bush administration agrees for UN participation only in humanitarian activities. The reconstruction is to be done mainly by the US firms. Bush administration is aware of the growing anti-American feeling in Iraq and that the US led forces are regarded as occupiers. Iraqis believe that Americans are doing every thing mainly for the benefit of Israel.

The American administration's motive is totally exposed now. It has become essential for the Arab Muslims to gradually delink their economic relationship with US. They must start work for closer relation with friendly European states such as Germany, France and Russia. This, however, does not mean that they should remain hostile to Israel. In fact it would be a good idea for OIC members states brainstorming to find out how to better their relationship with Israel. On the otherhand, Israel must realise the futility of Arab-Israeli conflict. By now they must have been convinced of the fact that sheer brute force based on borrowed support can never be the foundation of a state among hostile neighbours. Continuation of Arab-Israeli conflict will result in increase of international terrorism. And NATO will not be able to play any effective part if major powers like France, Germany or Russia do not accept US definition of "international terrorism."

The growing mistrust of US administration about Arabs has resulted in increased US restriction on the Arabs' entry into US. This will certainly drift the attention of the Arabs from US to Europe. This trend will result into closer economic cooperation between the Arabs and the Europeans. Not only this. If Arab Muslims have to sacrifice more for the peace and prosperity of Israel, gradually the non-Arab Muslim states will be compelled to think about directing their attention toward Europe.

The American administration must work sincerely to bring back law and order in Iraq as quickly as possible. And they must leave Iraq as early as possible. They must not think of imposing western type of democracy in Iraq. Let the Iraqis find out their type of democracy.

It appears that the only option left for Bush administration is to leave the entire job of Iraqi reconstruction without wasting further time to the UN. Let the work be supervised by the UN, for only UN can attract the interest of major countries for their active participation in the rebuilding of Iraq, which deserves priority over anything else at the moment.

A B M S Zahur is a retired Joint Secretary.