The UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) warned that developing nations should not count on a sustained global recovery to act as a driving force for their growth following a "slower and more erratic" upturn than expected in 2002.

The upturn underway in the United States was already beginning to look like the "double dip, jobless recovery" of the 1990s, diminishing the US's traditional role as an engine for the global economy, the 2003 Trade and Development Report said.

It cautioned that excess debt and domestic imbalances in the US, which had not been tackled since the boom years, "could result in a period of unstable and sluggish growth, with occasional surges as well as dips".

Neither Europe, with its weak consumption and cap on counter-cyclical government spending, nor Japan with its stagnant investment and near zero growth, were in a position to cushion US deficiencies on the world scene, the report noted.

"Adverse consequences for the developing economies, even the most resilient, are unavoidable," Unctad's Secretary-General Rubens Ricupero said in the report.

Most poorer regions should avoid overt decline thanks to internal improvements, such as greater domestic demand in Asia or better political conditions in Latin America, while Africa has been relatively insulated from the downturn of 2001, Unctad said.

It found that East Asia and Africa depended largely on the evolution of their trading environment, and acknowledged that trade was expected to expand much faster in the developing world than in industrialised countries.

But it cautioned: "The rapid expansion of trade and further trade liberalisation depend crucially on a rapid recovery of the world economy rather than the other way around."

The report also dampened African countries' hopes of a boost under the poverty and hunger cutting drive promised at the United Nations' Millenium summit in 2000.

"Given the current level of development cooperation and the structural weaknesses across the region, there is now a growing consensus that it will be impossible to meet the Millenium Development Goals even under the most optimistic growth scenario for the world economy," the report said.

Average growth for all developing countries including China rose to 3.3 per cent in 2002, up from 2.4 per cent a year earlier, but below the average of 4.8 per cent in the 1990s.

The differences in growth across the developing world are widening, and the ability of poor or emerging nations to deal with external shocks in volatile economic conditions varies sharply, according to Unctad.

Asian countries were rated as in the best position, picking up strongly this year thanks to "an independent momentum for growth" generated by a more expansive monetary policy which helped boost demand and beat off the global slowdown.

Latin America was likely to avoid a recession thanks to a brighter political outlook, but its recovery will be "anaemic and fragile", with little room for changes in monetary policy following debt crises, Unctad warned.

Africa was blighted by low commodity prices and unable to rise above performance of past two years, while only a handful of African countries might experience growth rates of seven per cent or more, the report said.