Latest trend in food prices shows a kg of coarse rice selling at Taka 13-14, up by Taka 3-4 from weeks ago. A kg of 'fine' rice has had similar surges in price, climbing up to Taka 20 from Taka 16. This represents a 25 percent increase and no sane nation would sit idly by to watch such hikes roaring around in a bristle of time.

There is a common assertion that price hike exacerbates prior and during the month of fasting, although facts tend to negate such an assertion. The 'Ramadan hike' is an artificial construct conjured by unscrupulous vendors and hoarders. It is more cultural than economic. It creates a scaring climate to justify the evildoers' machination to mint quick bucks. Other things being equal, Ramadan by and itself cannot generate such a price spurt.

What are those other factors? In the last fiscal, rice production stood at 27 million tons against an estimated demand of 20.2 million tons. The data stemmed from government sources and it showed a surplus. If the demand was not projected wrongly, why the government imported food despite the production being more than the demand? Food import bills tripled this year.

Since the mid 1990s, successive governments told the nation that 'we are self-sufficient in food.' The claim sounded music to our ears, but, had it been really so, why 3.9 million tons of food were imported in 2002? And, why the current food reserve stands at 850,000 tons only (of which rice 679,000 tons and wheat 171,000 tons). The reserve is barely enough to meet a short-term disaster of any kind.

At the heart of food security lay the quantum of output from agriculture, which contributes 25 percent of the nation's GDP and employs 60 percent of loabour force. The agro-sector thus holds a considerable sway over the voting outcome in any election. The tentacle of voters spreads from the agro-based villages and the politicians have enough reason to pepper over voters' emotion with false data.

That would be tolerable had the current hikes not transcended beyond prices of rice and wheat only. Agro-centric sectors like the fishery (5.4 percent), livestock (2.9 percent) and forestry (1.9 percent) jointly account for slightly less than 10 percent of our GDP. These sectors now find it difficult to cope with increased demands, and, prices of these items too are soaring phenomenally.

Then there are auxiliary food items, which constitute more than half of food expenses in any family. A week's observation reveals the price of onion having nearly doubled, jumping from Taka 20-22 to 35-36 per kg. Likewise, prices of Soyabin oil, lentil, egg, vegetable and other basic foods are upping daily. The entire food sector seems exploding amid an 'overprice frenzy.'

A similar trend is observed with respect to wheat prices, which too registered an upward surge from Taka 7-8 per kg in 2002 to Taka 10-12 now. The hike here is almost 100%. Unlike rice, wheat has a variety of uses and prices of all wheat-products, including bread, increased commensurably in recent weeks.

The scaring spectacle leads one to suspect that, either the traders are hoarding to inflate prices, or the supply has fallen short of demand. Either way, the government seems to have lost its leverage over the price mechanism and allowed a molehill hike to grow into a mountainous inflation. The demand-supply equilibrium is lost.

Meanwhile, the fallout of the hikes has put the macro-economy into a spin as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved upward and inflation glided. The ordinary people now find their going getting tougher each day while the government basks in the glow of celebrations and ceremonies to commemorate its two-years in power.

As such fanfare rolls on, the government's lack of perception in spotting the intricacies of food security is too evident to gloss over. Food prices showed no downward run despite another one million tons shipment having arrived between July and August 2003.

Given that the prices climbed further up the slope, loopholes in planning are nakedly exposed. The government's second strategy also faltered: the drastic cut early this year of taxes on food import (from 29 to 7 percent) has had inconsequential impacts on prices.

One also fears that we are in the midst of a run-away inflation. While that is plausible, prices can defy stabilisation due to some other reasons too. The loopholes in the collection and collation of data on production, which is manipulated to earn political bravado, remain a major problem. Then there are discrepancies in measurement, delivery, and availability. The truth is hard to come by to assist any curious mind.

While crop food, mainly rice, accounts for 15 percent of the GDP, other food-centric sectors are cash-starved and underemployed. Experts believe fish alone could contribute 20% in the GDP growth if the government had concurred more with fish growers.

Meanwhile, the fear of shortage is steering policy makers toward more imports. This will lead to more job cuts and further enfeeble the industry's competitiveness. This negative impact on agro- employment and on other vital aspects of the economy coincides with reduced government spending and the yawning imbalance in the nation's saving and investment; resulting into a snail-paced investment flow and further obstructing the expected momentum in job creation and growth.

Outwardly though, reasons for an import-spree can be threefold: to meet shortfall; to beef up supply to ensure price stability; and, to boost food security by increasing the level of what one may call the 'strategic reserve.'

Available data does not support any tentative gains in any of the above. That aside, one should not condone the issues of mismanagement and corruption that mar the relevant departments entrusted with devising policies to stabilise food prices and to ensuring the adequacy of food reserve.

Rice and wheat are staples. Rice alone contributes 14.4 percent to the overall GDP and unfettered movement of rice and wheat within the country is a prerequisite to bypassing any famine syndrome like those prevailed prior to the 1974 famine. The 1974 famine was caused mainly by our lack of predictive visions and the authorities' inability to get food reached to remote places in time. The US also played a 'suspicious' role in exacerbating our famine situation by its refusal to ship out an already committed food cargo on the pretext that Dhaka sold gunny bags to Cuba.

Three decades on, we've learnt little to obfuscate such relapses by fending off the domestic and international risks that can torpedo any stable food security strategy. Isn't it incredible that no serious study had reflected as yet upon the impact of a 'consumer revolution' on the food strategy despite such a revolution having changed the food habit of many by transmuting their life style?

We are no more the voracious rice and fish eaters, a trait on which rested our culinary reputation for ages. A 'fast food culture' is gripping us faster and its reality seems inescapable. Did we factor in all those 'obvious' while devising our food strategy? I bet, no. Small wonder then that, like the proverbial cow of a judge (kazi), the book shows the cow's presence while the barn has no trace of the animal.

Author and columnist M. Shahidul Islam is a Senior Assistant Editor of The Daily Star.