Perspectives
The fate of Indo-Pak dialogue
M Abdul hafiz
In his characteristic boldness of holding out olive branch to the adversary, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, the septuagenarian Prime Minister of India, launched his fresh peace offensive on 18 April last while addressing a public meeting in Srinagar with a grandiose offer of unconditional 'talk on all issues' with Pakistan. It was in quick succession of his peace initiatives earlier when in 1999 he undertook his famous bus ride to Pakistan leading to Lahore declarations for good neighbourly relations between the arch-rivals of the subcontinent and engaged President Musharraf in much-hyped Agra summit in July 2001. Notwithstanding the failures of all those efforts all credits go to the Prime Minister who repeatedly opened up the window of opportunity to break Indo-Pak impasse. That he took calculated risk on making his latest peace overture was apparent from what he told the parliament only days later on May 02. "Now whatever happens will be decisive" adding "I am confident, I will succeed." On May 27, the Indian community in Berlin was assured, "this time the bus will not break down." He was ostensibly referring to his failed bus diplomacy that got mired in the bitterness over Kargil episode. In spite of a measure of circumspection he left no ambiguity about his historic mission: effecting a breakthrough in Indo-Pak deadlock before he soon passes into history. Pakistan's prompt and positive response made the prospect look brighter.Yet the only tangible gains of Vajpayee's initiative so far have been the resumption of Delhi-Lahore bus service and the return of the high commissioners of the respective countries to their post to preside over grossly under-staffed missions. That the curbs were lifted by India after nearly three months of Vajpayee's overture reflects a niggardly notion of step-by-step approach which does not however fit in its Prime Minister's extraordinary gesture. The Samjhuta Express still remains suspended. So are the airlinks. Some soothing diplomatic formulations are expected to be devised to remove the snags and someday those services will perhaps be restored. But, what next? These are desirable steps, but the decisive test of the peace process is the resumption of a composite dialogue stalled since Agra. More specifically, when the leaders of the both countries will be able to talk on the light issues listed in the Islamabad joint statement of June 23, 1997 and repeated in the unsigned Agra declaration of July 16, 2001. In his offer although Vajpayee did not speak of a linkage between the 'talk' and 'cross border terrorism' his deputy Lal Krishna Advani underlined the point of conditionality by repeating the charge of 'infiltration' and the urgency of closing down the "terrorists' camps." But the real punch then came from Vajpayee himself who in his recent speech at the UN seemed to have suggested that any talk/negotiation on Kashmir would be tantamount to negotiation on terrorism and would, as such, be betrayal of the Kashmiris who by participating in the election had expressed both determination and self-determination. Portending a new twist in his initiative Vajpayee now said, "when the cross border terrorism stops -- or when we eradicate it -- we can have dialogue with Pakistan on the 'other issues' between us." In saying so Vajpayee was clearly indicating that Kashmir, Pakistan's core issue for any talk, was not going to be in the agenda -- even if there may eventually be a dialogue between the two countries. Mr Vajpayee's unexpected offer to resume talks and its instant, enthusiastic acceptance by Pakistan did not put an end to India's old refrain of cross border terrorism nor to Pakistan's charade of the brutal suppression of the freedom struggle in occupied Kashmir. The good will that the Indian Prime Minister's peace initiative could generate dissipated fast under the pressure or fear of the extremists in both countries. Coming in its wake, President Musharraf's emphatic reiteration of Pakistan's known stand on Kashmir in the UNGA and Prime Minister Vajpayee's retort to it as "terrorists' blackmail" only emboldened the extremists in both the countries. Small wonder that the likes of VHP's Togadia in India openly professes subversion for Pakistan and General Hamid Gul, who took his lesson of politics in the ISI and his cohorts saw in Musharraf's UN speech a reversal of Kashmir policy from dialogue to arms and complimented the President for his courage. These are while the vast majority in both the countries worry about the effect the trend will have on the fate of Indo-Pakistan dialogue which is not as yet formally abandoned and certainly one to which hinges the wellbeing of the millions of the subcontinent. The cynics say that Prime Minister Vajpayee's April peace initiative was prompted, among other things, by concerns that Washington had expressed about the rise in tension due to intemperate statements from Indian leaders calling for pre-emptive attacks on Pakistan. It was an imperative for India to assuage the anxiety of Washington which is strongly for Indo-Pak amity so that its global war on terror particularly one is Afghanistan is not hampered. India, it is said, has been adequately rewarded for the gesture. The Americans, welcoming the relaxation of tension, promptly withdrew their objections to the sale of Israeli Phalcon radar system to India. Moreover, the election next year is a big factor in the decision making of Vajpayee who cannot afford to be 'soft' on Pakistan at this delicate time. These are, however, political expediencies which may be resorted to by both sides for temporary gains. But for the gains of the millions on a permanent basis there is indeed no alternative to the dialogue which must be rescued before the offer of it dies down of neglect. Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.
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