True, the Congress won three general elections even after the split. But all of them -- two under the leadership of Indira Gandhi and one under Rajiv Gandhi -- indicated more of people's wrath against those who were in power than of hope in the party they returned. It was a negative vote. Even then, the Congress did not learn any lesson.

The last few years have been really bad for the party. It has lost its moorings. It seems as if it has no fire left. The old spirit of service and dedication has been taken over by power politics. Even the party's strong point -- secularism -- has been reduced to a mere slogan, evoking less and less conviction. Congress president Sonia Gandhi looks personally committed to secularism. But this cannot be said about the other leaders of the party. The tactics some of them adopted during the state elections, especially in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, reflected soft saffronisation as if they were trying to ride two horses at the same time.

Fears expressed by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) are genuine. It has rightly pointed out that people had expected from the Congress "a firm defence of secularism and democratic values." Instead, they had found the Congress "vacillating and compromising." Still the Left parties have announced their support to the Congress if and when it forms the government. This makes up for the party's weakness elsewhere.

The Congress has also lost the grassroots contact which distinguished it from other parties. The RSS appears to have occupied the space which the Congress has vacated. This has been seen during the state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. It looks as if the RSS cadre has spread all over the countryside in the north, particularly in tribal areas. It has opened schools, hospitals and health centers to offer basic facilities. This has earned it goodwill. The RSS has, however, poisoned the minds of the tribal population. Gujarat saw how it was used for a pre-planned massacre in the state two years ago.

The BJP may be giving the impression that many Muslims are joining it. But the community, at least in UP, which has 80 Lok Sabha seats has swung towards the Congress. Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and Mayavati's Bahujan Samaj Party, which the Muslims preferred in the past, may be the losers. Like UP, Bihar too has a substantial population of Muslims. But they look like staying with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of Laloo Prasad Yadav who has not allowed any communal riot to break out in the state in the last decade. The Congress will have the Muslim vote on its side because of its alliance with the RJD. But the Congress has only a few seats in Bihar. Its best bet is still UP. Yet, however big the Congress chunk, it cannot push up its present strength of 112 to the magic figure of 273 in the 545-member Lok Sabha.

The induction of Rahul Gandhi in the Congress may not make much difference. His sister Priyanka may have. But then like any mother in the subcontinent, Sonia Gandhi wants the son to succeed, not the daughter who is considered a part of the husband's family. Whatever the BJP's claims, it too cannot capture a majority. It was founded on a parochial appeal and built upon that sentiment. Its support is not wide. Unless the majority community gets contaminated between now and the polling day the party will be nowhere near the 273 mark. The BJP may even find it hard to retain its present strength of 182. In 1977, the party miraculously increased its number from nine to 90. But that was because it had given up its separate entity -- the Jana Sangh as it was then called "and merged into the Janta Party which enjoyed at that time the spotlight because of the movement led by Jayaprakash Narayan, a Gandhian, against Indira Gandhi's autocratic rule.

Both the Congress and the BJP, the two main parties, should have known by this time that their base is not countrywide. The BJP has very little following outside the Hindi-speaking states and the Congress in the Hindi-speaking states. Both are trying to ride on the shoulders of regional parties.

Both, in fact, admitted their limitations when they sought alliances with different parties of the country. There is hardly any state where they have gone it alone. Combining with local parties big or small, is their compulsion. The fallout has, however, been positive. Local competent candidates who would be left in the past have got nominated. In the process, some good elements in the region have come to the fore.

What is unfortunate is the personal attack against Sonia Gandhi. The manner in which Advani and other party leaders are concentrating on her foreign origin shows nervousness on the part of the Sangh parivar. Using a BJP-inclined TV network for this purpose gives out all.

I do not see the BJP and the Congress together winning more than 300 seats. Anyone who can command the support of the rest of 245 seats has every chance to become the Prime Minister. Atal Behari Vajpayee is not a foregone conclusion as the BJP makes out.

In any case both the BJP and the Congress while forming the next government will see to it that real power stayed with them. The example of the BJP is before us. In the ruling NDA, it has practically all the key portfolios -- Home, External Affairs, Finance, Industry and Communications.

Whatever the alliances may cost to the BJP or the Congress, they are good for the strength of Indian democracy. No party can go autocratic. Regional aspirations will get represented at the centre. Even the BJP which once thrived on its slogan of one culture and one party has changed into a firm believer of the coalition politics. Vajpayee's main point of campaign is that he has successfully run the 24-party government for the full five-year term.

Vote-wise, both the BJP and the Congress manipulate caste and other identities. They find that caste factor counts not only in Bihar but also in UP and other Hindi-speaking states. It is, however, the failure of communists and liberals who have not been able to retrieve people from poverty and backwardness that has given rise to narrow considerations. L.K. Advani's effort to devalue regional parties is understandable because he believes in strong centre.

At least the Congress has learnt a lesson in this respect after missing the primeministership for not having accommodated Mulayam Singh Yadav some years ago. It is a pity that regional parties are not being respected for the tremendous job they have done to sustain India's pluralism. That is the reason why federalism has not taken roots in the country, something which would have integrated the nation firmly.

Kuldip Nayar is an eminent Indian columnist.