"While all options remain open on March 31, it is difficult to see Opec rolling back its 10 February decision entirely, unless heavy consumer country pressure is brought to bear or there is a major rethink on the underlying supply-demand data," the industry specialist says in its Monday edition.

"While these two options are feasible, it appears more likely that Opec will engineer a modified output cut that will see actual production reduced by 700,000 bpd to one million bpd from around 26 million bpd in February and March.

"This would present a compromise position that would partly satisfy producers concerned about the seasonal drop in second quarter demand and the concerns of consumer countries," the weekly newsletter says.

"But the question of the likely level of leakage for any new deal gives even these rough calculations a major caveat. In other words, ministers must also find a way of explaining to anxious consumer governments and public opinion how their stated policy of production cuts since September 2003 sits with evidence of increasing Opec production over the same period," MEES adds.