On macro-economic issues that will occupy a part of the discussion, Finance Minister M. Saifur Rahman will get a nod of approval. Bangladesh Bank estimates economic growth in 2004-5 to exceed the projected 5.5 percent. The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have corroborated this estimate. Bangladesh will highlight progress in monetary management, the fiscal and credit situations, foreign currency reserve, and initial steps to reform the banking sector.

The Finance Minister, in fact, on his return from the annual IMF-World Bank meeting in Washington last month, announced that the World Bank was ready to provide assistance amounting to one billion dollars for the next annual development programme. The donors, as the official expectations and calculations go, were sufficiently pleased with the governments' performance to offer aid that will exceed two billion dollars in the next fiscal year.

There will be the customary slap on the wrist of the government on such issues as the human rights record, the continued top position on the Transparency International corruption index, law and order, strengthening local government, the spat about the NGOs, and the poor performance of essential public services such as health and education. The government, in turn, will proclaim its sincerity of efforts and explain how more progress was hampered by the intransigence of the opposition and why the government was compelled to give priority to maintaining stability and order in the country.

The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) will be a prominent item for discussion in the BDF. IMF and the World Bank see PRSP as an instrument for defining development priorities and strategies by Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HPIC) and other selected low income countries. An acceptable PRSP will qualify countries for concessional loans from IDA ( World Bank's concessional loan window) and PRGF ( IMF's Poverty and Growth Facility). Bangladesh took the decision to prepare the PRSP in BDF 2000 and presented an interim PRSP (I-PRSP) to last year's BDF. Progress on preparation of the full PRSP, to be completed by the end of 2004, and the key ideas in it will be presented in the forthcoming Forum.

Titled as "A national Strategy for Economic Growth, Poverty Reduction and Social Development," the Bangladesh PRSP is seen by the government as the framework for development planning and budgeting through three-year "rolling plans" and annual development programmes. The I-PRSP presented a "medium term macro-economic framework for 2004-06" for implementing a poverty reduction strategy. The strategy emphasized macro-economic stability, improving governance,

investing in human development and social protection for the vulnerable.

A process of consultation has been followed on I-PRSP with civil society and academic groups. The consultation has prompted questions about the premises underlying the macro-economic framework and the target and pace of poverty reduction. There is skepticism about the extent globalisation and privatisation, rather than the interest of the poor, are the driving force behind a process initiated by IMF and World Bank. A much deeper concern, expressed almost universally, was the lack of political will and capacity of the government to deal with major obstacles to implementing any pro-poor strategy -- breakdown of law and order, extortion and economic violence, ineffective local government, appalling performance and lack of accountability in public services, and absence of democratic culture and behaviour in political institutions. Can the full PRSP indicate how these obstacles will be removed?

What difference will a guarded pat on the back of the government by donors on macro-economic management and a tap on the wrist on human rights and governance make? Let's look at some promises made by the government and views expressed by donors in the last BDF in 2003 (based on "Report on the Bangladesh Development Forum," Dhaka, 16-18 May 2003).

-- The government pledged the "creation of efficient and effective local government institutions in a decentralised decision-making framework through participatory mode." Yet, the ruling coalition remains hostage to the members of the parliament who want to keep control of patronage and do not want to cede any authority to locally elected public representatives.

-- The government promised to create an independent anti-corruption commission. Its creation remains tangled in procedures and there are grave doubts about how independent and potent it would be with the structure proposed.

-- The independence of the judiciary and its separation from the executive branch is a long standing promise. The government has asked for the umpteenth postponement of its execution from the Court in the face of Supreme Court directives.

-- Establishment of a human rights commission with credibility and teeth also has been a long-time agenda. Again, the government cannot make up its mind how independent and powerful the commission should be and it remains another promise still to be fulfilled.

-- The government agreed on " the key role played by NGOs and the importance of Government-NGO partnership in poverty reduction." But, the threat of a diabolical legislation hangs over NGOs which would let the government control NGOs by allowing officials to define and decide when an NGO is involved in "politics."

-- The donors praised the government for "designing fundamental reforms [in] and preparing a substantial primary education subsector programme." But they expressed concern about effective staffing, timely implementation, decentralisation, the inclusion of the marginalised, fighting endemic corruption in appointment of staff, and working with NGOs to effectively reach the children left out. With hindsight, it can be said that flagging these concerns were well justified; because there has been no real serious steps in a year in addressing these concerns. In fact, the subsector programme which technically began in July 2003, is yet to become opera-tional, in part, because of disagreement between donors and the government about acceptable qualifications for the head of the programme.

-- The constitutional obligation of the state for protecting the rights of ethnic, religious and other minorities has been a regular topic in the Forum. Six years after signing the peace accord in the Hill Tracts, there are not

only complaints of bad faith by the tribal leaders, but the escalation of sporadic violence into renewed insurgency is a real possibility. The mob assault and abuse of the small Ahmadiya community have happened with impunity and their religious books have been banned by the government. The consequences of such tolerance and even sympathy for the fanatic elements are ominous and unpredictable.

-- There are the boiler plate items such as improving law and order, strengthening the police force, merit-based promotion in the civil service and the "nexus between some politicians, some police, and criminals ... that provides a protective umbrella for criminal activities." The government will surely explain how hard it is trying and that indeed more rapid progress would be made, provided that the opposition parties would refrain from being utterly non-cooperative.

It is very likely that BDF 2004 will see a repeat of the discussion of the same and similar items as noted. And there will be the same mutually reassuring diplomatese until the same topics are discussed again next year.

How can it be different -- a real dialogue about some targets and strategies for the coming year and a sincere effort and a mechanism for monitoring and reporting progress during the year? PRSP, as much as it is the framework for setting and achieving key development objectives, can also be the basis for identifying achievable objectives - including economic, social and political ones - for the coming year and monitoring progress towards these objectives. A key poverty reduction issue is that the growth rate has to be raised to 7-8 percent from around 5 percent, along with some pro-poor changes in the composition of the growth, to combat poverty. Experts agree, and World Bank and ADB have made the point, that controlling corruption and improvement in governance can ensure the necessary two percentage point increase in economic growth.

There can be and should be extensive debate and discussion about refining PRSP, making it genuinely pro-poor and yet achievable, and lending it truly national ownership. More impor-tantly, a consensus has to be built on removing the obstacles to its implementation and assessing and monitoring progress. The monitoring has to be participatory - not just by officials and consultants, based on agreed short term and medium term targets and indicators, and transparently shared with and reported to the public and in the media. This should be done, not because the donors demand it, but because this is the people's right and the government's duty.

Dr. Ahmed is the Director of BRAC University Institute of Education and Development.