Hung parliament spectre clouds future of Indian economic reforms
Pallab Bhattacharya, New Delhi
With exit polls predicting a hung Indian parliament, an air of uncertainty has enveloped the future of economic reforms. The general view in Indian corporate sector is that the country's economic fundamentals are strong. The economic agenda of both BJP and Congress, two main contenders for power, are more or less the same and the reforms process is irreversible, irrespective of the colour of the new government. But there are also reasons to get worried. What has tended to strengthen the anxieties of pro-reforms lobby is the massive defeat of Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu, who was considered the poster boy of economic reforms, in the state legislature polls. What is interesting is that Congress regained power in the state on the popular slogan of free electricity to farmers. Then exit polls have also forecast that in the southern state of Karnataka ruling Congress, led by another pro-reforms Chief Minister S M Krishna, is likely to suffer reverses in the state assembly elections which were held along with recent parliamentary polls. Late last year two other pro-reform Chief Ministers of Congress, Digivijay Singh of Madhya Pradesh and Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, had to bite the dust in the assembly elections in their respective states against a BJP which emphasized more on basic amenities for the common people than big-ticket reforms. Analysts say all this is likely to embolden anti-reforms lobby not only within BJP but also among its allies such as Trinamool Congress. Besides, if BJP falls well short of majority, it will be forced to rope in a dozen of smaller regional parties, who are not known for their support for reforms, to reach the majority mark and enjoy it comfortably. The government of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had pressed ahead with some big-ticket reforms, particularly in privatization, with the support of Telugu Desam Party of Chandrababu Naidu. But Naidu's electoral defeat may dampen the enthusiasm of Vajpayee and his pro-reform key economic ministers like Jaswant Singh (Finance), Arun Shourie (Telecom) and Arun Jaitley (Commerce and Law). Congress has expressed its commitment to carry on with the reforms because after all it was under the party governance that the process was introduced in 1991 when Manmohan Singh was the Finance Minister. In fact, Singh had gone well beyond any conditionality imposed by IMF and World Bank to usher in reforms in the nineties. Going further back, it was under the Congress government, headed by late Rajiv Gandhi, that internal reforms were initiated. But Congress today does not share the BJP view of reforms in toto. It talks of reforms with a "humane face." And that could have implications for the privatization drive. The party has made it clear that it is not in favour of selling off profit-making public sector undertakings. Then there are the sensitive issues of fiscal reforms and pruning government expenditure, cutting subsidies, labour law changes and downsizing the administration to help contain rising fiscal deficit and worsening state finance health, economic analysts point out. All these call for hard decisions will not go down well with the electorate. The Left parties, which are likely to have great influence on the policies and decisions of a Congress-led coalition, have radically divergent views on reforms. Another reform-minded Chief Minister Jayalalithaa of Tamil Nadu, who is a key ally of BJP, had initiated some measures for fiscal reforms like in freeze on recruitment, abolition of power subsidy and curtailing of facility of subsidized rice, wheat and sugar. But all these steps were dubbed as "anti-people" by detractors of Jayalalitha whose party AIADMK is predicted by exit polls of being worsted in recent parliamentary elections.
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