Hope for better Indo-Bangla relations
Brigadier General M. Sakhawat Hussain (retd)
The Congress, the oldest political party that led India to freedom, catapulted into power in an unbelievable election result that ousted a communal coalition government led by BJP. Indian Congress, the party that symbolises the secular India is back in power allied with other prominent secular regional parties and the left front. The stunning result of 14th Lok Sabha could not surprise election pundits more than the incumbent coalition of NDA. However, the high drama that followed the selection of next PM was unique in Indian political history. Nevertheless, the Congress and its pre-election allies, agreed to form the government under Dr. Manmohan Singh, nominated by Congress president Ms. Sonia Gandhi after her dramatic declaration of not accepting the post on her personal account. The tenor of the current Congress party hopefully would inject freshness in the internal and external dynamics in dealing with internal and external policies. We in Bangladesh are more concerned with the shape of the external policy that would be adopted by the newly installed secular government in Delhi, especially in improving relations with its smaller neighbours including Bangladesh. Leaving aside Pakistan, NDA's ambivalent policy towards its smaller neighbours had caused strenuous relationship especially with Bangladesh. Outstanding smaller irritants between the two countries multiplied with Delhi's continuous insinuation against Dhaka mostly on perceptive issues. There was even serious border clash between two neighbours on issues that could have been settled with prudence from Delhi, but it was not to be. In a sense the relation between the two had often been in the lowest ebb in thirty-three years existence of Bangladesh as independent country. There are outstanding issues that need to be resolved and most of these issues are as old as Bangladesh's independence and would not be new to the Congress government. Among the many issues, transit, alleged sheltering and training North East Indian insurgents, illegal migration and threat of unilateral withdrawal of water from common rivers resulted in a cold relationship between Dhaka and Delhi. The unilateral decision of BJP government of adopting the River Linking Project to divert water from common rivers to the Indian interior came as a bombshell to Bangladesh. Rivers are lifelines of this poverty stricken country that needs no emphasis. The river linking said to have been the dream project of BJP, became an election agenda. Point to note here is that this was no new project rather it was revival of a dormant project that Capt. Dastoor had put forward to the then Congress governments few decades back to help resolve water problem during drought and semi-drought seasons in North West and West India. The BJP revived the project, that many would suggest, for political gain. However, it was not only Bangladesh that opposed such a devastating plan that would jeopardise the very economic existence of Bangladesh but would also harm the less developed Eastern State of Assam and part of West Bengal and Bihar of India. These considerations hardly touched the then Indian ruling coalition. It was an interim ruling by Indian Supreme Court on a Public Interest Litigation hearing that had directed the government of India to execute the suspended decades old river linking project. The ruling came as a blessing for the NDA. The planned project envisages major river linking through number of planned canals to be excavated to draw waters from the Ganges and the Brahamaputra to west and south India to increase water flow of rivers within those region during lean period. The project also aims at conserving excess water from these rivers in big reservoirs to divert water in much of the drought affected west and south. Most of these rivers that are included as prime sources of excessive water for diversion, are by all definition, regarded to be international rivers, shared by two or more countries, especially the Ganges and the Brahamaputra are the main sources of water for Bangladesh. Bangladesh as the lower riparian country would remain to be the most affected if and when such grandiose Indian project is executed. India did not even consider to officially inform Bangladesh of the project until the last JRC meeting held in New Delhi. After much fuss, the Indian authority identified the issue in joint declaration at the end of the JRC meeting. Indian authority of that time claimed that the project was still at feasibility study stage, but the reports indicated otherwise. It is reported that Delhi has already rehashed the old plan and constructed six canals in the south as part of feasibility study. As reported, NDA government advanced the project for funding and experimental excavation of few link canals. The proposed river linking aims to transfer excessive water from eastern states to the west and central India by creating artificial reservoirs. These reservoirs then would store water during high monsoon in the east and supply to drought-affected western and parts of central India. The project envisages linkage of major rivers. The main linkage would be Ganges to be joined with Kaveri. The task to be completed by year 2016 or within fifteen years once the initial works is taken at hand. BJP government had appointed former Union Power Minister Suresh Prabhu as head of the task forces that would work out detailed plans and evolve a national consensus. One does not know whether the project has taken national centre stage or not, yet it has created enthusiasm all around heartland of India. No doubt that the project, if and when executed could mitigate long standing water shortage of North West Indian farmers boosting Indian agricultural output and the rural economy of the Indian heartland. Congress government has vowed to take economic reform to suit rural development that alleged to have been largely ignored by NDA government. The enthusiasts of the project tell the worried neighbours including Dhaka that India's ambitious project in fact would rather resolve the occurrence of yearly flood that devastates the economy, brings damages to life and property. So far Delhi is concerned it does not see why Bangladesh should be worried. According to the proponents of the project, even after storage major rivers, especially Ganges, would have enough water both on high monsoon and in dry season that would sufficiently meet Bangladesh's requirement. The whole project is envisaged to be a network of 30 canals, 10,000km long, involving the construction of nine large and twenty-four small dams to be completed in even over half a century. And then there is the cost factor. Total project cost estimated to be Rs. 560,000.00 crores or Rs. 5.6 trillion. This estimate is based on current exchange rate that would escalate many folds in given time. Ganga-Kaveri (north-south) link plan is as old as of 1972 but the prohibitive cost was major factor that the project remained in the file. Interlinking project that India is coming up with would prove to be dangerous for Bangladesh. Assuming that Delhi is not prevented by the Northeastern states and required funds are made available what would then be the consequences for Bangladesh whose all but one river either originates in or flows through India? We are already facing the adverse effect of Ganges water treaty that was signed in 1996 to settle the Farakka Barrage issue. Bangladesh is yet to get even agreed volume of water during lean period and that increases the salinity in southern Bangladesh at that given period. Now that the Indian Congress, the party that was associated with the liberation of Bangladesh, is in power, we expect more rational approach to the issue that calls for multinational consultation if at all the project India must pursue at the cost of human suffering both within and outside India. However, it seems highly unlikely that Congress would pursue such an ecologically disastrous project at the cost of its allies like Laloo Prashad of Bihar, and others in Eastern States who had already opposed such grandiose BJP plan. Yet one is not sure unless the project is scrapped altogether. Nevertheless, one must not lose sight of the court ruling 'to execute the project in public interest.' Whether the Congress would make an effort to have the judgment vacated remains to be seen. However, we do expect the secular coalition government led by Congress to change the foreign policy direction that alienated Dhaka from Delhi. We welcome a secular government in the form of Congress in Delhi and hope that all issues pending with neighbours would see the resolution through dialogue replacing the arm twisting policy of the last government.
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