Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 65 Sat. July 31, 2004  
   
Editorial


Matters around us
Will Indonesian presidential polls result lead to political unrest?


Indonesia, world's fourth largest populous nation, earlier this month went for elections to choose a president -- for the first time through direct votes -- in a remarkable step towards further democratisation of the pattern of rule. But the outcome of the polls, which has only recently been announced after several days because of vastness of the country and the new system, gave enough indications that the nation of more than 22 crore people may witness political problems centering the results.

Among the several candidates in the fray for the top position, none has been winner since at least fifty percent of the votes is required for victory. Candidates taking first and second positions will now go for run-off elections in September so that a winner emerges with more than fifty percent of the votes. The system is something like the French presidential polls but allegations of irregularity and threats for taking the issue to the courts are creating concern for the future shape of things in the country of inumerable islands.

Former army general and ex-security minister under president Megawati Shukarnoputri, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono topped the elections with 34 percent of the votes followed by the president herself, who secured 26 percent of the votes. The third position went to another ex-army general Wiranto with 22 percent, who alleged that the voting had been flawed and the matter be taken to the court. If finally the presidential polls falls into litigation, the second round of election may become somewhat uncertain. Furthermore, general Yudhoyono feels that security must be tightened to the line up to the run-off elections as he fears wrong doings related to elections matters.

The government brushed aside the accusations and maintained that things were moving in the right direction for free and fair presidential polls in the country. However, an undercurrent of tensions is palpable in Indonesia centering the elections and analysts say the future developments may complicate things even though nothing very serious barring some minor bomb blasts have so far taken place following the announcement of the results.

The second round of polls will be between Gen Yudhoyono and incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri but Gen Wiranto alleges that he has been pushed out of race by being relegated to the third position. He is from "Golkar party" of ex-dictator Gen Suharto, which secured maximum seats in the parliamentary polls in April. Since Wiranto comes from the part that fared well in the parliamentary elections, his accusations against "unfair" presidential elections are likely to raise some dust in the political scene.

Indonesia won freedom from the Dutch under the leadership of charismatic Ahmed Sukarno, who remained at the helm till deposed in the failed pro-communist coup in 1965 that brought Gen Suharto at the centrestage and he ruled the nation for long 32 years mainly through autocratic style. A pro-democracy movement forced him to quit power, bringing Borhanuddin Habibi as interim president and later Abdur Rahman Wahid was elected president by parliament members. Megawati, daughter of "Bung"(Brother) Shukarno, was widely expected to become president but when dark horse Wahid was chosen, she graciously accepted vice-presidency in a praiseworthy decision that earned her admiration. Physically handicapped Wahid was forced to relinquish the presidency for alleged incompetence and corruption and Megawati was the clear choice for the position.

She enjoyed the advantage of being the daughter of the leader of the Indonesian freedom movement and her tenure as president is marked by both achievements and criticisms. A good governance remained a subject of criticism in the country and alleged interference in different matters including business deals by her parliamentarian husband also formed a part of the criticisms against her. However, the president was firm in the saddle as the opponents were not a big threat against her. Meanwhile, Indonesia admirably moved closer to democratisation of the rule and the decision to elect the chief executive of the nation through direct popular votes was a step in the right direction.

Many eyes were cast on the presidential polls since it was new and unique for the country. I had the occasion of visiting Jakarta late last year and was impressed to see the development of the country, which is also the population wise biggest Muslim nation in addition to being an important Asian country with considerable clout in the Southeast Asian region. However, people at that time were eagerly looking forward to the presidential polls that was still several months away. Because the future political scenario was largely contingent upon the outcome of this election.

The army obviously played a role in the affairs of the nation in different forms till democratisation began but it is not clear if the army has taken a complete back seat now in the revolving political situation. The presidential polls that have sparked off controversy of some degree are likely to go for the second round unless courts intervene or political problems, which still seem somewhat remote, force to delay or complicate the process. Indonesia has come a long way towards establishing a representative government and as such any development that scuttles the process will be something that is least desirable.

All the southeast Asian nations were not democratic but the wind of change has its impact an the region in a positive manner. Indonesia being the largest country in that area occupies important position in the larger context of democratic rule and the nation is moving, even though somewhat experimentally, towards the avowed goal of representative character of government. The presidential election is a key component in the whole exercise. All concerned would be well advised to refrain from anything that would adversely affect the process. A free and fair poll is imperative on one hand and sheer opposition for the sake of it is equally undesirable on the other. After all, at this stage the country needs political stability.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.