How the 2004 election is shaping up in USA
A.H. Jaffor Ullah
Things are looking good for Democratic presidential aspirant, Senator John Kerry and his running mate, Senator John Edwards. The political pundits in America have opined that the November election will be decided in the "battleground" or tossup states. The following are a few of the tossup states: Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, Louisiana, Florida, and a few more. The inclusion of Senator Edwards on the ticket was a logical one because the Republican Party has made inroads in many southern states, which used to vote for the Democrats until the 1960s. Senator Edwards is a southerner; therefore he may pull enough votes in a few of those states to bring one or two to the Democratic Party in November. But what about those industrial and western states? The new poll results published on July 24 do not bode well for President Bush. Two new polls taken in key tossup state, Florida, where Al Gore lost by only 500-600 votes in 2000, found the race deadlocked in a three-way race. That indicates the independent candidate, Ralph Nader, could again steal enough to make a difference. In other words, neither candidate can be sure whether he can enlist the state in his column at this stage of the game. The Democrats have blamed Nader for helping Bush to win the state in which Nader managed to obtain more than 97,000 votes in 2000. It remains to be seen whether there will be a reenactment of the 2000 election this time around. In the last presidential election, the northern industrial states went for Al Gore while smaller states overwhelmingly voted for the Republican ticket. Will the trend be the same in 2004? Many experts consider Pennsylvania (23 electoral votes) to be one of the "battlegrounds" states. Al Gore won this state four years ago. Will the state go Democratic this time? As per a state poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times, Kerry was up over Bush by 48 percent to 38 percent, which is a commanding lead. This is most certainly good news for Senator Kerry. In the western part of America, the liberal state of Oregon (7 electoral votes) narrowly went to the Democratic side in 2000. There, Senator Kerry is now leading Bush 50 percent to 42 percent, while Nader has 4 percent, according to a poll by the American Research Group. If this trend continues then Oregon may again go into the column of the Democrats. According to a recent AP report, in Florida, a Mason-Dixon poll found Bush at 48 percent, Kerry at 46 percent, and Nader at 2 percent. A rival poll by the Los Angeles Times put Bush at 45 percent, Kerry at 44 percent, and Nader at 2 percent. The race therefore looks too close to call in Florida. It is going to be a real tossup state just like in 2000. The Midwestern state of Ohio (21 electoral votes), is a swing state. This state has a perfect record as far as choosing the right candidate in the presidential election for many years. In 2000, the state narrowly went for Bush (49.9 percent to 46.4 percent). Polls conducted in recent times by multiple pollsters are now saying that Bush and Kerry are tied in Ohio. The same goes for the tiny state of New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), which narrowly went to Bush in the last election. Right now Kerry is leading the state by only 2 percent. The readers should take note of the fact that any poll taken has a statistical error of plus/minus 4 percent. The way things are shaping up as far as the presidential election is concerned, Senator Kerry is going to give President Bush a run for his money. The Republican candidate is always flushed with money, which makes the television add a cinch. But this time around, Senator Kerry was able to receive an impressive amount of election contributions. He is holding these for an eleventh hour media blitz. This makes the Republican Party a bit edgy. If Senator Kerry wins those industrial northeastern states, a few Midwestern industrial states, and the three Pacific states (California, Oregon, and Washington), then the only states he needs to wrap up victory are a few southern states. That is where Senator Edwards will come in handy. This is the strategy the Democratic Party is bracing for. Under this scenario, President Bush may win those smaller states in the South, Midwest, and mountain areas, but without carrying Ohio, Mr. Bush will run into trouble. The math is straightforward. Therefore, the election watchers should focus on battleground states such as Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. As they say, the election these days are fought in battleground states. It should be music to Mr. Kerry's ears that he is leading by a wide margin in one such tossup state (Pennsylvania). The election is more than three months away. There is no telling what damaging information may emerge for any leading candidate. If the economy improves significantly in the next three months, then the voters may go with the candidacy of President Bush. But if it remains as it is now, then there is a chance that Senator Kerry may come out victorious. Therefore, I for one would be looking at the economic data published by the Federal Reserve Bank and other governmental and private agencies. Also, the stock market performance may tell us the way the economy of this giant nation is heading. So far, market performance has been lackluster, which should give the Republicans a headache. The 26th U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt once quipped, "The most successful politician is he who says what the people are thinking most often and in the loudest voice." In post 9/11 era the U.S. voters' mind is preoccupied with terror attack from outside. Messrs. Bush and Cheney are capitalising on it. Let us wait and see how this factor plays out in the next presidential election. Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
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