Maharashtra is a political landmark. The result is all the more creditable because the Front faced heavy odds on account of incumbency and "rebellion" by dissidents.

The DF provided a shabby government, whose leader (Vilasrao Deshmukh) had to be changed midstream. Under its rule, India's most industrialised state ran up a debt of nearly Rs 100,000 crores. Hundreds of farmers committed suicide under the impact of a drought and mismanagement of relief provision. More shamefully, 3,500 children died of malnutrition.

This created fertile soil for a BJP-Shiv Sena triumph. Yet, they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory! The DF did reasonably well in all the regions, although in Western Maharashtra, it suffered from "rebellion."

The voter affirmed secular, inclusive politics centred on livelihood issues, on which Ms Sonia Gandhi and Mr Sharad Pawar concentrated their campaigns.

The Sena-BJP campaign was fettered by the failing health of Mr Vajpayee and Mr Thackeray, by the BJP's demoralisation, and by the Sena's bitter succession battle. But even more crucial was the erosion of the BJP-Sena's social base.

Clearly, traditional constituencies like the urban poor, Muslims and Dalits are going back to the Congress. This is partly attributable to the Left-leaning Common Minimum Programme of the UPA's Central government.

The BJP-Sena further damaged themselves by running divisive and negative campaign. During his sole public rally in Mumbai, with Mr Vajpayee, Mr Thackeray viciously attacked Mumbai's immigrant community, which forms 60 percent of its population. Mr Vajpayee didn't counter this with moderation.

This cost the BJP-Sena many non-Marathi votes. Significantly, many BJP-Sena Marathi/Gujarati strongholds in Mumbai returned Congress candidates. The BJP-Sena's "development" agenda didn't sell.

Nor did Hindutva sell. BJP "master-strategist" Pramod Mahajan turned out a dud. His much tom-tommed "micro-management" didn't work. The BJP's cynical calculation, namely that the Bahujan Samaj Party would eat into the Congress's votes, went awry. So did Ms Uma Bharati's fiery rhetoric, charged by her ludicrous Tiranga Yatra, and Ms Sushma Swaraj's demagoguery.

The BJP had reckoned that a Maharashtra victory would enable the National Democratic Alliance to present its recent Lok Sabha debacle as an aberration or a flash in the pan. The NDA would reaffirm its claim to being the "natural" party of governance, undermining the UPA.

The opposite happened. After Maharashtra, the UPA has consolidated itself. In by-elections in other states too, the Congress expanded its support-base.

The next state elections, due in February in Bihar, Jharkhand, and Haryana, could further punish the NDA. In Bihar, the RJD and Congress make a formidable combination. In Jharkhand, Mr Shibu Soren's "martyrdom" will work against the BJP. In Haryana, Mr Bansi Lal's re-entry will help the Congress.

In the elections that follow -- in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala -- the BJP isn't even in the reckoning.

BJP leaders have been daydreaming. First, they convinced themselves, on astrological forecasts, that the UPA would collapse by September 26. Then, they conjured up a "third front" -- to be formed by the DMK, NCP, and Lok Janshakti Party quitting the UPA and teaming up with the Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal (U), and other non-Congress, non-BJP parties. The BJP would support such a front from the outside and topple the UPA.

The Rashtriya Swabhiman Manch, recently formed by Messrs George Fernandes, Chandrasekhar, and Subramaniam Swamy, was to promote that same purpose. These leaders are now out of business.

The BJP power-struggle won't end with Mr L.K. Advani as party president. This sudden, desperate, move was meant to pre-empt a wholesale RSS takeover of the BJP. It also cut Mr Murli Manohar Joshi out of the leadership race. It shows that the BJP's "second-generation" leaders aren't up to the mark.

Indeed, no BJP leader has strategy or imagination. For far too long, the party flourished on one-liners and gimmicks. That isn't working anymore.

There is a reason for this. The BJP's rise since the mid-1980s wasn't primarily the result of its own positive appeal. The BJP gained from circumstances of others' making, including the long-term decline of the Congress system. The Left couldn't fill the vacuum this left in the political centre. The BJP capitalised on this.

For a period, mobilisation around Ayodhya helped the BJP grow out of the confines to which the Jana Sangh was restricted: geographically, largely to Northwestern states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat, and socially, to the well-off upper castes -- in some cases, downright reactionary feudals like former princes.

Thus, between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, the BJP implanted itself in Uttar Pradesh through a unique combination of mandal (OBC politics) and kamandal (Hindutva), personified by Mr Kalyan Singh.

This helped the party sink roots in the heart of North India -- for the first time. But the continuing "Forward March of the Backwards" and the politics of Dalit self-representation reversed this trend. Barring Gujarat, and pockets of Jharkhand and Himachal, the BJP couldn't expand beyond the old Jana Sangh influence-zone.

Today, the BJP faces a three-fold crisis -- of strategy (it has no coherent counter to the Centre-Left), an organisational crisis (it has had four presidents in six years, three of whom couldn't complete their terms), and a crisis of leadership succession.

The BJP is too heavily invested in Right-wing neo-liberalism to pursue an independent policy. It is too deeply mired in Hindutva to be able to broaden its appeal beyond a bigoted minority. It is too devoted to power to rejuvenate itself when out of office.

Today, the BJP is in danger of becoming too dependent on the RSS for coherence, mentorship and votes. Mr Advani's first decision after becoming party president was to call upon RSS leaders on Vijaya Dashami!

Such over-dependence could be suicidal. The BJP has exploited the Hindutva issue, including Savarkar, Tiranga, and terrorism. It conjured up the spectre of Muslim demographic colonialism, and played the anti-Pakistan card. Nothing worked. The BJP seems set for prolonged exile.

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.