Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 154 Tue. October 26, 2004  
   
Business


S'pore economy on track, oil may impact next year


Singapore's economy remains on track to grow by between 8 and 9 per cent this year as forecast, but next year's growth could be hit if oil prices remain at the current high level, Trade and Industry Minister Lim Hng Kiang said Sunday.

Though growth is expected to slow in the last three months of this year, 'even with the slowdown, we should be comfortably within the range of 8 to 9 per cent', he said during a dialogue with 300 residents of Bishan-Toa Payoh North constituency.

This is because for the first nine months of this year, the economy averaged strong growth of 9.2 per cent, he said.

Looking ahead, Lim said if oil prices remained at the current level of around US$55 a barrel, Singapore would likely feel the impact towards the end of next year.

This would largely be through a drop in external demand as high oil prices caused a slowdown in the global economy, which would then lead to a fall in demand for Singapore's exports, he said.

'We expect that kind of impact to come in sometime towards the end of next year because of the lag effect in the oil prices,' he said, adding that if oil prices fell back to US$40 or lower, then the impact would be less.

The Government's current forecast for next year, which is for the economy to grow by between 3 and 5 per cent, is based on the assumption that oil prices fall to an average of US$45-US$46 a barrel.

Yesterday, Lim also addressed a resident's concern that households will be hit by higher utility bills.

He pointed out that the unit price of electricity has remained 'fairly stable' in recent years.

This is because the opening up of the power-generation sector to competition has led to efficiencies which have helped to mitigate the rise in oil prices, he said.

'If you look at your electricity bill, most of the increase is really through our individual higher consumption,' he added.

During the dialogue session, which capped his five-hour-long ministerial visit to the ward, Mr Lim also took on a range of questions on jobs for older workers, longer maternity leave and the proposal to build a casino here.

Taking pains to explain the Government's position on the controversial casino issue, he said what is being considered is an integrated resort to draw tourists through a range of entertainment options, such as a water-theme park, theatres and art galleries.

The casino will account for only a share - of between 30 and 40 per cent - of the revenue for the whole complex.

Explaining the rationale, Mr Lim said developers of integrated resorts in cities like Las Vegas found that they could not make money from world-class acts like Cirque de Soleil.

'So they have a casino which brings in 30 to 40 per cent of the revenue and that cross subsidises the entertainment,' he said.

The Government has been talking to potential developers but 'they haven't come back to us yet'.

It will call for and study the proposals from developers before discussing with them ways to minimise the social harm on Singaporeans, he said.