Ali al-Nuaimi, oil minister for Saudi Arabia, Opec's largest producer, made it clear on Thursday where he expects the US price of a barrel of crude to be: "The price today is between 40 to 50 dollars, and that's where it will probably stay during 2005."

These statements appear to confirm what analysts have predicted for several months: Riyadh has been changing its views on pricing, after having for a long time defended a price of 25 dollars a barrel.

At present, the price of crude based on Opec calculations has increased to about the level indicated by the Saudi minister -- it closed Friday in New York at 51.49 dollars, while in London it sold for 49.61 dollars.

Several ministers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have hinted at an increase in the past few months, but it was not clear where Saudi Arabia stood. For that reason, analysts have taken note of al-Nuaimi's recent remarks.

"I think it's a signal to the market that there's going to be a big increase in the Opec price band," said Kevin Norrish, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.

The Saudis "have certainly laid out that there's going to be further discussions at the next (Opec) meeting and I think it's possbile that it will be unveiled."

The 11-nation cartel, which represents 40 percent of the world's crude oil production, will next meet on March 16 in Isfahan, Iran.

During its last meeting on January 30, Opec decided to suspend its target price band of 22-28 dollars a barrel, which had been in place since 2000, on the grounds that it was "unrealistic." The cartel is expected to consider the price band again at next month's meeting.

Potential triggers for oil price increases are numerous.

Analysts cite the risk of slowing Russian exports as the fall-out of the Yukos saga continues. They also point to the strength of Chinese demand -- one reason for inflated oil prices in 2004 -- which shows no let-up.

The situation will create a bidding war for Middle East oil, analysts say.

Opec's president and Kuwaiti Energy Minister Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah said Wednesday that the cartel could increase oil output if prices increase further.