While we would probably not have defaulted on our debt obligations in mid-September 2001, we would have hard put not to. We have traveled a long road since 9/11, economically, politically, and geo-politically. In the doldrums and hovering around a 1000 or so points, the Karachi Stock Market has now breached the psychological barrier of 10,000 points and will probably shoot up to 15,000 before slowing down. Our foreign exchange reserves have gone up more than 15-fold, from less than $1 billion to about $12 billion, more or less. The business climate has improved substantially, enough for foreign investors to start trooping into Pakistan in person, the latest being the Saudi investor, Prince Waleed. The much-touted "trickle-down economics" may not have trickled down to the poverty-stricken masses as yet, the prospect of the middle class forming a longer begging-bowl line has been stemmed somewhat, if not showing any signs of being reversed. Poverty may go hand-in-hand with affluence as in India. Nothing symbolizes the burgeoning consumer boom more than the $291 million each forked out for two cellular licenses recently, investors are prepared to take a calculated risks in Pakistan. If proliferation of mobile telephones are anything to go by, we may be rapidly overtaking India's economic overdrive, even though on a pro-rata basis.

The real-estate market is something else, to call it a positive economic indicator would be an understatement. After 9/11 the Muslim community in the West, particular in the US, came under focused scrutiny, given the horrific nature of 9/11 that was neither surprising nor unrealistic. The expatriate Muslim community started to hedge their bets with respect to their assets sending a fair percentage back home to their respective countries. While Pakistan immediately benefited by unofficial "hundi" remittances being stopped and remittances being directed through official banking channels, thereby increasing the foreign exchange reserves manifold, the 2002 India-Pakistan stand-off due to India's mobilizing almost her entire armed forces on our borders resulted in a temporary hiatus on the economic front. After the political uncertainty of the October 2003 elections and the 17th Amendment, the geo-political turnaround that caused the psychological floodgates to really open up was the visit of the Indian PM Atal Behari Vajpayee to Pakistan in January 2004. The prospect of peace force-multiplied the economic gains and encouraged the Pakistani expatriate community to start sending their money in tons, most of it flowing into the real-estate, some of it into the stock market. Along with unofficial money came real investors to tap into the potential, force-multiplying the economic boom. The market pace may not be sustainable for long, given Pakistan's economic resilience it may slow down but will not have a free fall.

If Pervez Musharraf is beleaguered domestically, it is because he had the courage to take tough macro-decisions vital to the country's interest. One may be picky about some of his micro-decisions, we cannot deny this man a correct "selection and maintenance of aim," the country's supreme national interest. And one may not agree with him on the mish-mash "uniform" democracy in place in Pakistan, given the integrity of our politicians and their combined calibre, what was (and is) the alternative? One can only imagine the harangues he must be subjected to by visitor after foreign visitor because of the visible religious fanaticism in Pakistan, in minority but vocal and strident enough to be taken seriously by a hostile foreign media. Can we ever give "a soft image" to Pakistan in the presence of such extremists? As he steers a perilous course to keep everyone (and his uncle) in the West off our backs, don't discount Pervez Musharraf's services to this country. People love to decry his personal ambitions, let him cast the first stone he (or she) who doesn't have ambition!

One of the US President's closest advisors (and charter member of his intimate inner circle) is Karen Hughes. This close aide accompanied Governor Bush to the White House, returning to Texas after a few months because of personal domestic reasons. When the going got tough during the recent US elections, she returned to his side. Her visible presence was seen loyally taking issue with the media on primetime TV about the disastrous Bush performance during the first US Presidential debate with Kerry. It is very revealing that Bush has chosen Karen Hughes to head the fresh policy initiative to reconcile US with the estranged Muslim community all over the world, the appointment showing the importance Bush is giving this issue.

Condoleezza Rice visits us at an interesting time. On the one hand peace seems to be breaking out in South Asia, on the other speculation is rife that she will offer F-16s to both India and Pakistan. For fly-pasts alone? Pakistan has many reasons to be grateful to the US and not the least for not making a giant parking lot out of us despite the prima-facie evidence linking us with Osama Bin Laden through our Taliban connections. Because of the US pumping funds into Pakistan for any number of reasons, from outright grants to service fees for use of temporary bases for the war in Afghanistan, re-scheduling of debts, debt forgiveness, etc other western countries got into the act. To quote my article "Too Close to Call" of November 2004, "Whether we like Bush or not is immaterial, as Pakistanis living in Pakistan, what we have to worry about is how the President of the most powerful nation on this Earth views Pakistan and formulates US policy. For the last three years it has been very favourable towards Pakistan.

While US policy may not change drastically under Kerry, for Pakistanis it is better to go with the devil we know rather than risk life with the devil we don't. Pakistanis may flirt with Kerry, even date him, but we must remain married to Bush. One may like Kerry immensely, but if I had a vote, because of our national interest I would vote for Bush. As much as most of us may dislike it, we should sport buttons that say, "Dated Kerry, Married Bush!"

As the sixth woman in Bush's life, after his wife, two daughters, mother Barbara and Karen Hughes, Condoleezza Rice as National Security Advisor (NSA) was overwhelmed by the star power of Colin Powell. Since taking over from him as US Secretary of State she has shown that: (1) she is no pushover, (2) she also has star power, and (3) her views as NSA are synonymous with that of her boss and her new role as the diplomatic point-person of the most powerful nation of this Earth. Condoleezza Rice's visit will cement the US-Pakistan relationship and maintain continuity for a long haul on a mutually beneficially course.

Ikram Sehgal, a former Major of Pakistan Army, is a political analyst and columnist.