Indo-Pak relations and US strategy
AMM Shahabuddin
Both have played well, showing good captaincy. Both have proved their talents and ingenuity one being a well-disciplined Army General-turned politician and the other a well seasoned politician and thorough bred diplomat. Incidentally, one is a born Indian but now a Pakistani leader and the other is born Pakistani but an Indian leader. Thus the two Titans -- Gen. Musharraf, President of Pakistan and Dr Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister of India and a leader of India's oldest political party, Indian National Congress, had recently met in Delhi, discussed, not Delhi's weather, but much deeper things and dispersed in cheerful and jovial mood, during Gen. Musharraf's 'cricket diplomacy' visit to the Indian capital on invitation of the Indian PM. They displayed lot of diplomatic hand-shakes and broad smiles confirming success in the process of building confidence and friendship between the peoples of the two arch rival nuclear countries, particularly by launching for the first time after some six decades a historic bus service between Srinagar in Indian Kashmir and Muzaffarabad in Pakistan Kashmir. This would indeed bring closer the Kashmiris living in the two divided parts of Kashmir. Of course, many will say that there is nothing new in Pakistan's 'cricket diplomacy' as a similar 'gimmick' or 'show' was staged by another Army-General-turned politician Gen Zia-ul Huq in the eighties. However, it must be admitted that Musharraf's 'cricket diplomacy' and Manmohan Singh's 'successful playing' were greatly significant because of their brilliant captaincy in putting back the earlier de-railed talks on the right track again. After the failure, rather sudden collapse, of the much-hyped Agra summit of 2001 between Gen. Musharraf and the then Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee, a new chapter had been opened this year to pick up the lost threads left behind at Agra, to begin their avowed new journey apparently on road to peace. Trump-card It can't be denied that Kashmir issue had often been abused and misused by the political leaders of the two countries as a trump-card or election tricks to gain popularity in their respective countries. And, you know, politicians often prove best actors. So, invariably, whenever there was a rising domestic problem in either country or election heat-waves were going against them, they would immediately bring out their magic-stunt -- Kashmir -- and shed crocodile-tears for the suffering of the people and sovereignty of the country. More than one definite achievements of the resumption of the dialogue between Musharraf and Manmohan is the bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad for the first time in the last sixty years, also new plan for a rail service between Sind and Rajasthan, besides rail and bus services between Lahore and Amritsar and increased frequency of air services between the two countries. So there has been less talks and more 'field work.' A good progress, no doubt, although much less of Kashmir has been heard. The Indian Foreign Secretary Mr. Saran had said, at the end of Delhi talks, that much progress had been made in the process of boosting confidence-building between the two countries, adding that Kashmir is "a complicated issue" and "it may take time to resolve" and it is "a long way off". A word to the wise is enough, they say. And the picture is now clear as to where Kashmir issue stands compared to other measures being taken. And Musharraf had already said with confidence that they would continue discussion "in a sincere, purposeful and forward-looking manner for a final solution". So far so good. It is a good sign that the Pakistani leaders who had although insisted, since the Kashmir issue was taken to the UN by India in 1947, that it was the "core issue" that needs to be settled first by holding plebiscite under UN auspices, before other issues are taken up, had now shown their wisdom to come down (or calm down) to realise the ground reality and had agreed to discuss all issues, including Kashmir. This U-turn for Pakistan on Kashmir, at the behest of whoever might be, augurs well for both countries. Kashmir and UN The Kashmir issue is hanging fire with the UN for last six decades or so. The UN Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP), which had brought a ceasefire between the two countries, proposed to hold plebiscite under UN auspices to decide its future. Although the UN proposal was agreed upon by both countries but the plebiscite could not be held as yet as the two countries could not reach an agreement on the modalities for holding the plebiscite. So it is now a history. It is really a "complicated issue" and it would "take time to resolve," and it is "a long way off" as pointed out by the Indian Foreign Secretary. Under the 1972 Simla Agreement, both parties had accepted the LoC (Line of Control) as the official border line between the two parts of Kashmir. During the last six decades or so, much water had flown down the Ganges and the Indus, but the 'pain in the neck' continues as before for both countries. And the issue would continue to be "complicated" as both India and Pakistan stick to their guns. It is really difficult to say how far the much-expected "flexibility" on Kashmir can be stretched by Musharraf and Manmohan when India considers that Kashmir is an integral part of India and Pakistan says that the LoC can never be accepted as the final dividing official line. Third party involvement? Whether Indo-Pak leaders like it or not, they would have to admit that they need a third party involvement of some super-power for an amicable settlement of the much-vexed Kashmir problem and keep the present renewed flow of Indo-Pak efforts for building confidence and friendship on through various means, as is being done today. As a superpower, America, has a lot to do in this respect. And some encouraging signs are already visible with the shadow of US role, from behind the scene keeping off the heat but consistently advising both for a peaceful dialogue. In fact, America's involvement in Asian affairs, particularly in Indo-Pak affairs, became strongly visible to the world when President Clinton in 1999 stretched his long hands from White House as a big storm was raging over Kargil. Despite repeated denials by Pakistan of the Indian allegations about the presence of Pakistani soldiers and militants in Kargil on the Indian side of the LoC, Nawaz Sharif, then Pakistan's PM, was caught, with pants down, by Clinton. He was advised to immediately withdraw Pak forces and militants from Indian territory which was duly carried out. This made Clinton larger then his size before the Indian people. Thus he gained a strong fool-hold for America in India. This was perhaps the beginning of the process that continues to-day with new US deals with India both in defence services and economic and commercial sectors, showing how events were moving in India's favour, creating a rather suppressed discontent and resentment in Pakistan which has become a front-line key-player in America's war against terror in Afghanistan. But the humiliation Pakistan suffered in Kargil couldn't be washed out although Pakistan has been richly rewarded for its unconditional support to US actions, against terror. Now, when US offers F-16 war planes to Pakistan, India resents and to overcome India's discontent and resentment, America offers it not only F-16, but also more advanced F-18, as well as Patriot anti-ballistic missiles system. Now Pakistan's turn to resent. But both Gen. Musharraf and Manmohan know well what shape of things is likely to emerge because of US advances. Pakistan will have to bean with it. US Plan for Asian region The new secretary of state of Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, during her recent visit to the sub-continent, had clearly indicated that South Asia "is critical, with China on one side and Iran and the Middle East on the other." This unfolds US plan to make India a "major power", not only in Asia, but also "a major world power in the 21st century." Sometime back, precisely in 2001, a senior US Defence official was quoted as saying that "in a major geo-political shift, the US is looking to forge closer military ties with India as a counter to China". And this was followed up with the most significant visit to India by the Chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, considered as "the highest-level military visit to India." Now India is getting ready to enter the planned expanded UN Security Council as a Permanent Member perhaps with the blessings of America. To face the growing influence of China in the region, the urgent need of America is to strengthen its ties with India. Pakistan, being one of the closest allies of America has a strategic role in it. Hence both India and Pakistan needs peace and friendship to further boost the US strategy in the region. Any rift in Indo-Pak relations would be a big hurdle to achieve the US mission in the region. So the game has just begun. The captains are on high alert. AMM Shahabuddin is a retired UN official.
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