Rule of law and macroeconomic performance
Dr. Abdullah A. Dewan
One of the important public goods that governments provide is the 'rule of law'. Legal systems that provide strong legal protection for entrepreneurs and investors are critical to development of efficiently functioning financial markets which fosters economy's ability to bear risk. This ability to spread risk over a multitude of investors is sine qua non to increased investment and economic growth. Achieving these goals require an impeccable will of the government machinery to enforce the rule of law in letter and spirit. Unfortunately, people have been electing their representatives to power only to find later that they are forgotten and their representatives are busy making their own fortunes. In his recent remark on Law and Order, the State Minister for Home Affairs Mr. Lutfozzaman Babar (Netrokona, June 24), said, "The overall improvement in law and order is one of the prerequisites for development of a country". He claimed, "We have already succeeded in restoring peace in people's mind, wiping out terrorism from the country". The State Minister's outlandish claim of success about "wiping out terrorism", however, is grossly inconsistent with the daily occurrences of his party workers taking law into their own hands. While the international pressures for producing the killers of former Finance Minister Dr. SAMS Kibria and those who made unprovoked grenade attack on Awami League rally on August 21, 2005 are building up, the Prime Minister elevates a slain BNP Jubo Dal leader Sagir Ahmed, an 'alleged criminal', to the rank of a national hero by offering Fateha and wreath on his coffin wrapped with the party flag (Ref: Daily Star, June 26). To all citizens who follow the rule of law, a criminal never dies a hero's death. A criminal who escapes the law is simply waiting to be killed by another criminal. Unleashing terror by beating and burning houses and properties of the supporters of an opponent, Khairul Kabir Khokon, who won the by-election in Narsingdi-4 constituency, has committed an act of political terrorism. The dreadful act of slicing ears of two opponents by Chairman of the Hajipur Union Parishad is simply an act barbarity (Ref: Daily Star, June 23). One wonders what this MP from Narsingdi, who has absolutely no respect for democratic values and rule of law, has to offer to his constituency. The recent intelligent reports of toll collections and extortions from businesses by JCD leaders of different colleges in and around the capital, and mugging of Tk.12 lakh by two JCD activists from a jewellery shop manager in Baitul Mukarram raises eyebrows as to what kind of politicians the country would have to bear with in the future (Ref: Daily Star June 23). No countries are completely free of robbers and thieves; but there are not too many countries on God's earth where such crimes are committed by student community. Further, the State Minister Mr. Babar fails to recognise that explosion of two dozen bombs in Ahmadiyya-inhabited area in Brahmanbaria town and setting fire on their mosques on June 24, and 19 other incidents over the last 21 months are acts of terrorism on minorities (Ref:Daily Star, June 29). Many international organizations including the US State department and law makers are alarmed by this rise of "ethnic repression". The eviction of about 65 families consisting of mostly Hindu and indigenous communities, from government land in Mostafapur union in Parbatipur upazila under the pretext of a rehabilitation project for the landless are certainly a state sponsored act of lawlessness and terrorism (Ref: The Daily Star, June 25). The evictees themselves are homeless and landless. Did the Union Parishad Chairman, a local BNP, leader has the authority to march with 150 of his men to carry out eviction and looting their belongings? When citizens' own elected official resorts to terrorist like acts, where would the helpless citizens look up to? These types of lawlessness and violence have become day-to-day occurrences somewhere in Bangladesh. They are not normal law and order problems; they essentially constitute terrorism in one form or another. Then there are breach of legal business contracts, corporate scandals, bank loan frauds, and pervasive political and bureaucratic corruptions (corruption perception index of 1.5 lowest in the world). All these are going on before people's eyes and the corrupt people are accumulating black money as if to suggest, "We are the untouchables." Do all these relate to, "Why are we so poor?" The answer is best summarised by the following statements taken from "nationmaster.com". "Major impediments to growth include frequent cyclones and floods, inefficient state-owned enterprises, inadequate port facilities, a rapidly growing labour force that cannot be absorbed by agriculture, delays in exploiting energy resources (natural gas), insufficient power supplies, and slow implementation of economic reforms. Economic reform is stalled in many instances by political infighting and corruption at all levels of government. Progress also has been blocked by opposition from the bureaucracy, public sector unions, and other vested interest groups. The BNP government, led by Prime Minister Khaleda Zia has the parliamentary strength to push through needed reforms, but the party's political will to do so has been lacking in key areas." According to a recent report (August 2004) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, USA, real GDP per capita, adjusted for differences in purchasing power (US $) varied widely among countries. A recent United Nations report showed that it ranged between a high of $53,780 (Luxembourg) and a low of $470 (Sierra Leone). One naturally wonders what accounts for these cross-country variations in GDP per capita. Why are some countries wealthier than others? Is this because poor countries have bad governments? Is it because of lack of rule of law? Could it be because poor countries have low level of factor of production (that is, physical and human capital, PAHC)? Obviously, a simple answer would be "sum of each". Empirical studies and real life experiences of the existence of wide divergences in countries' endowments with natural resources could not fully account for a country's economic performance. Japan, for instance, is resource starved, yet it is at the top of economic ladder along with the richest countries of the world. South Korea with only a few resources has been climbing the economic ladder faster than any Asian or European countries. Middle Eastern countries have abundance of oil and human resources, yet none of them is truly rich and industrialised. Economic literature is replete with analyses arguing that a country's ability to accumulate physical and human capital (PAHC) and the efficiency, with which it transforms them into goods and services, seems to be an overriding consideration. According to the Freedom House's Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) 2004 Legal System and Property Rights (LSPR) Index, 24 out of 100 countries surveyed over the 1980-2000 periods had an average annual rating of 7 or higher. Their average GDP per capita in 2000 was $25,716, and enjoyed an average real GDP growth of 2.5 percent over the period of two decades. The lowest per capita income among them was approximately $12,000. At the other end of the spectrum, there were 21 countries with an average rating of less than 4 (Bangladesh 2.9) where average GDP per capita in 2000 was $3,094 and their growth rates averages 0.33 percent. Among the 21 countries with low quality legal system, Columbia had the highest GDP per capita of $7,010 in 2000. Freedom House's annual LSPR report shows that the rule of law in Bangladesh has been deteriorating over the last 10 years. Here are a few statistics worth noting. The index is based on a scale of 1(worst) to 10 (best). The LSPR index went down from 5.0 in 1995 to 3.2 in 2002; judicial independence went down from 3.7 in 2001 to 3.2 in 2002; impartial courts index went down from 4.2 in 2000 to 2.8 in 2002; integrity of the legal system index went down from 7.0 in 1995 to 3.3 in 2002. Here highest available values are quoted to compare to those for 2002. Data are available through 2002 only. In many Third World countries, including Bangladesh (as the data above indicates), judicial systems are weak, and legal cases are often likely to be settled on the basis of who has better political connections. In the former Soviet Union, with the fall of communism, the interface between legitimate business and organised crime was virtually blurred, as state owned assets rapidly found their way into the hands of a well-connected few. In this environment of weak rule of law, GDP per capita dwindled to as low as 12 per cent in the decade following the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet States. What happened was that the factors of production were depleting (instead of accumulating) and the productions and distributions of goods and services were plagued by inefficiency and the malaise of corruption. There are copious empirical studies using survey data which measured the rule of law as a composite of the enforceability of contracts, the effectiveness and predictability of the judiciary, and the incidence of crime. The analysis examined the relationship between, (a) rule of law and the accumulation of PAHC and, (b) rule of law and productivity. In both cases, the study found a strong positive correlation implying that the stronger the enforcement of the rule of law the higher is both accumulation of PAHC and productivity. Another group of studies showed that countries with less corruption tend to have higher levels of GDP per capita (correlation between the two variables is 0.87 which is statistically significant). Corruption deprives investors of compensation for risk taking and increases uncertainty about potential investment payoffs. Bangladesh is under the radar screen of the law makers of all aids sponsoring countries and international institutions who are watching for violations of civil rights, human rights, corruptions, weak enforcement of law and order, and intimidation of political rivals, and the media. One wonders if a country plagued by the culture of corruption, weak enforcement of the rule of law, greed of self aggrandisement, curse of confrontational politics, and endemic vulnerability to natural disasters would soon show wrinkles of hopes and progress. Dr. Abdullah A. Dewan is Professor of Economics, Eastern Michigan University, USA
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Violence on campus:Typical of Bangladesh |