The sale of jets to Pakistan will create newer opportunities for India to go for a bigger arms hunting spree. Signaling a new strategic partnership with India, the US has indicated that the sale of jets to Pakistan will be well-compensated by its willingness to sell top of range fighter aircraft and co-production of defence equipment to India. It is understood that the Americans have offered F-16 and F-18 fighters for sale to India with possible transfer of technology to build in India. The US has also indicated that they are prepared to discuss every issue of defence transformation with India to help her to march forward in its vision to be a global power of the 21st century. The American strategy suffers from total lack of vision and is bound to create an arms race in the sub-continent.

It is understandable that the lifting of the ban to sell 28 F-16 fighter aircraft already paid for by Pakistan has been hailed in that country. The ban had been imposed by the US Congress since 1990 and since than the relationship between the two erstwhile allies had been downhill. However, President Pervez Musharraf had cleverly played the American card by supporting the US war against terrorism, even at the cost of antagonising the majority of his countrymen.

However, the acquisition of only 28 F-16s will hardly enhance the strike capability of the PAF, which has been seriously depleted by almost 15 years of military sanctions. The PAF was forced to rely on the inferior Chinese F-7Ps for a long time. Though the number of new F-16 aircraft is not many, it would, no doubt, provide a sense of relief to the PAF psychologically, because of their proven capability.

The IAF is also in desperate need to increase the number of fighter squadrons which has depleted to 32 combat squadrons from the sanctioned strength of 45. It has to replace more than 300 front line aircraft, nearly half of its combat fleet, within the next decade. The first squadron of indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) will not be inducted at least until 2012. Therefore the IAF is desperately trying to acquire approximately 270 fighter aircraft (off-the-shelf plus license built in India) to bolster its fleet. The IAF has short listed the F-16 fighter aircraft, with a range of over 3,900km, in its shopping list and plans to acquire 126 of them at a cost of $26 million each.

For a short-term strategic preparedness capability, both India and Pakistan may feel at ease with the shift of American attitude in the region because it would raise the level of belligerence of both the nations. But there is bound to be a costly arms race between both the nations. This was evident when Pakistan received the first lot of 40 F-16s in 1980. It triggered one of the largest buying sprees by the IAF when it acquired a large number of French Mirage 2000 and Russian Mig-29 aircraft. Pakistan's defence spending has been increased to $3.4 billion to pay for the new inductions to offset Indian air and naval superiority and keep its military options against India open. The IAF is not sitting idle either; it intends to spend $6 billion to induct state-of-the art fighter aircraft like Mig-29M2, JAS -39 Gripen or Mirage-2000-5 that carry laser guided bombs to hit targets 1850 km away.

The army and the navy of both the nations are not far behind in their attempts to maintain superiority in their respective areas. When Pakistan bought 310 T-80 tanks from Ukraine, its armour capability became superior to the T-72, the main battle tank of the Indian army. To restore the balance of power the Indian army bought 310 T-90 tanks from Russia at a colossal cost.

The Indian navy is also seriously looking for 4 Scorpene diesel-electric submarines and also 8-12 P-3C Orion long range maritime patrol aircraft with a range of 4,000 km, that can stay airborne for 12 hours and attack surface targets with missiles, or patrol the coastline. Indian arms import since the Kargil episode in 1999 amounted to $9.5 billion, but in 2005 there is a fresh round of arms purchase amounting to $15 billion, thus making them the second largest arms purchaser after China.

Pakistan has recently acquired 2000 TOW-2 anti tank missiles and four F-22 Frigates from China, 8 P-3C maritime patrol aircraft (the same that are on offer to the Indian navy), 70 F-7 MG fighter aircraft from China, and is in joint collaboration with that country to develop FC-1 light fighter aircraft.

Both Pakistan and India sees the change of US attitude with skepticism, especially Pakistan who has suffered the most due to US sanctions that froze the supply of spares for the F-16s. The PAF was compelled to cannibalise spares from its existing fleet of 40 thereby reducing the number of available combat aircraft. India was also affected by US sanctions after its nuclear experiment, when the US stopped supply of spares of 30 SeaKing helicopters, the backbone of the Indian navy's ship-borne air capability. Indian apprehension in doing business with the US is therefore also understandable.

The US, on the other hand, is bent upon entering into a long term strategic partnership with India. Indo-US joint services defence exercises have been held and US defence production companies participated with their equipment in the Aero-India defence exhibition held in Bangalore to woo the top brass of the defence forces. India wants to ensure that uninterrupted supply of spares and transfer of technology of the intended equipment are guaranteed through a legal arrangement. One thing is for certain that Indo-US relations are on an upswing. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to the US on July 18 is expected to open a new chapter in the Indo-US relationship in enhancing strategic cooperation between the two countries.

There is plenty at stake for the for the US, the largest military industrial complex with annual exports of more than $14.5 billion. The biggest gainer from the F-16 sale to Pakistan and the proposed offer to India would be the US itself. USAF took delivery of the last lot of the 30 year old F-16 aircraft. Unless there are new orders for those aircraft, the manufacturers would be compelled to lay off personnel.

The latest trend in improving the relationship of both the warring nations of South Asia has been acclaimed by the world and welcomed by the common people of both the countries. It appears that there is a genuine desire by the leadership of those two countries to discuss every issue of contention including that of Kashmir. The world has witnessed radical geo-political changes globally in the last two decades. It is not impossible for India and Pakistan to sort out their differences on a permanent basis to ensure overall economic emancipation. However, it is evident that while both the nations are busy projecting their effort to improve ties with each other, there continues endless efforts by the US to enhance each one's military might.

India is also maintaining close defence cooperation with Israel, and is the fourth largest military client after Singapore, Chile, and the US, accounting for $10 billion worth of defence imports including drones, Barak missiles, Elta radars, sensors, ground surveillance radars to monitor the Line of Control (LOC) and aircraft electronics.

Pakistan is desperately looking westward to find alternate sources to replace their aging defence equipment in addition to close cooperation with China. With such huge quantum of arsenals in pipeline, both the countries would continue to mistrust each other and would remain on increasing belligerency and thus the state of instability would continue to haunt the region for a long time and . The Bush administration is likely to continue backing Pervez Musharraf and supply lethal arsenal to Pakistan in return for ongoing support for the war on terror.

At the present moment, America will continue to focus on Iraq and the war on terror. It is unlikely to get itself entangled in a complicated issue like the Kashmir solution. If America was sincere about Kashmir, they would have created pressure on both the disputing countries to resolve the 57 years issue instead of arming them with lethal weapons. In view of possession of nuclear arsenal by India and Pakistan, it is all the more important for America to help defuse the tension between both these countries by creating a semblance of peace rather than to keep the belligerencies alive. The Palestine dispute is another example of deliberate instability created by American policy.

Instead of going to the roots of why the Palestinians have taken up arms against the Zionist nation, the Americans have preferred a one-sided approach. The story of Iraq and Afghanistan is no different. The most recent serial blasts in London should be seen as a harbinger of further instability. It is high time that the superpowers got their heads together to try to resolve the basic issues that give rise to such terrible acts. Let us hope that good sense prevails on the American administration soon enough to stop the arms race in South Asia and elsewhere in the world.

The author is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star.