Iraqis are living an ignominious life and apparently there is no sign of an early end to their suffering. The Bush administration is sparing no pains to shore up the present regime whose legitimacy has not been accepted. Simultaneously US is trying to solidify the puppet regime of Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan. Because of her full support of Israel US wants to see Israel at the centre of the greater Middle East project in which Turkey has a special role. Because of Soviet threats in late forties Turkey was compelled to establish very close link (which exists even today) with the US. Since the invasion of Iraq by the US the relationship strained a little because Turkey did not allow US forces to pass through her territory to invade Iraq. Turkey also did not send troops into Iraq. There was an unwritten understanding between Saddam and Turkish authorities who used to send troops to Iraq to fight the Kurds in northern Iraq.

The Kurds played a critical role in Iraq war through inviting US invaders. The US rewarded the Kurds by making Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani the president of new Iraq. This has resulted in the revival of PKK guerillas who fought against Turkish forces for about 15 years. For the last two years Turkey is pressing US for allowing its forces to move against the PKK. The US authorities, however, have not acceded to this suggestion. In short, the grandiose plan (GMEP) of president Bush does not appear to hold any bright prospect.

Four years have elapsed since the 9/11 tragedy. How far Bush's loud claim is successful is a moot point. Whatever may be the quantum of success the reality is every day the innocent Iraqis are dying, US soldiers dying and Shia-Sunni relationship deteriorating dangerously. The US experiment to hand over power to the majority has not been successful. The Iraqis in general want earliest exit of US forces from Iraq. The guerilla activities are gaining ground day by day. No positive result could be achieved through US threat to attack Syria or Iran. In fact it is gradually, and perhaps speedily, becoming a war between the US and the Arabs. The sufferings of the Iraqis will certainly bring the Arabs closer.

During the last four years there has been incidents of bomb blasts in Indonesia, Spain, Egypt and Britain. Countries like Italy, Australia, Poland, Japan and Korea have already received threats of terrorists' attack. Similar threat has also been received by the US.

US government says that it may take around ten more years to establish an effective government in Iraq. Against tremendous pressure from the people of US to withdraw the US forces from Iraq it says that immediate withdrawal of US forces from Iraq is to admit defeat to the terrorists. On the other hand, the countries which participated in the Iraq invasion have started to withdraw their forces. They are no longer interested in sending more troops to support US occupation.

US has already incurred a huge expenditure in Iraq war (around US $200b). Everyday it needs US $1b to maintain the war against the Iraqi guerillas. Because of hurricane Katrina the Federal government needs more than US $100b for reconstruction, and rehabilitation. Of late another cyclone (hurricane Rita) has struck the US coast. These disasters have exposed the vulnerability of US -- the wealthiest, most advanced and most powerful country and the only superpower -- to natural disasters. It agreed to receive aid from other countries to rehabilitate the people affected by Katrina.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has failed miserably to handle the relief operation. To some experts the failure may be due to lack of attention by the government because of its too much attention to terrorist related disasters.

So far US has failed to capture Osama bin Laden or his principal associates like Al Zowahiri or Zarkabi. Talibans are again growing in strength in Afghanistan. US created Saddam to fight against the Soviet army and Israel to control the Arab oil and gas.

The state of Israel was created due to betrayal of the trust of the League of Nations by Britain which told series of lies between 1917 and 1948. The grounds on which the UK, the USA and the rest of the UN membership agreed to create the state of Israel were not only bogus but also immoral. Jews had been badly oppressed by Russians, Europeans and Americans. Arabs or Muslims were certainly not the oppressors. The Jews forgot the horrible oppression they had suffered and proceeded to oppress Arabs of Palestine.

The Iraqi guerillas are freedom fighters. Their main objective is to throw the US forces out from Iraq to save Iraq's wealth i.e. oil and gas. US government has clearly realised that but by increasing the forces in Iraq it can never win Iraq war. As we see Bush's dream to establish some sort of democratic government or system in Iraq cannot be fulfilled. It is clear that the Iraqis are suspicious of the US motive. The majority Shia population will not be able to control Iraqi Administration at least in near future. Only that system or arrangement will be able to work which is acceptable to the Sunnis, Shias and the Kurds. The guerillas should also be consulted. The American desire to unilaterally impose some system will only worsen the situation.

The Americans could never solve any international problem very satisfactorily. Thus they cannot solve Iraqi problem as well because their motive seems malevolent. Bush administration has fully realised the possibility of gradual deterioration of the Iraqi situation. It also does not find any easy and honourable way to get out of Iraq. Signs are becoming increasingly clear that guerillas are growing in strength both in Iraq and Afghanistan. Sufferings of innocent civilians due to guerilla warfare will help the guerillas to draw more sympathy of the common men.

As things are, the best way for Bush administration appears to be (a) withdrawal of forces within six months, (b) approaching France, Germany and Russia to settle the question of establishing future administration of war ravaged Iraq (payment of some compensation to the Iraqis by US and other participants in Iraq invasion should also be deliberated upon), (c) apology to the Iraqis for causing immense suffering to them wrongly, (d) refraining from giving threats to Iran and Syria.

With Israel's withdrawal from Western Gaza, Pervez Musharraf's gesture to come to better understanding with Israel, increasing pressure by the Americans themselves to withdraw American forces from Iraq and sudden financial strain due to hurricane Katrina prompt one to conclude that withdrawal of American forces from Iraq may be completed much sooner than anticipated.

ABMS Zahur is a retired Joint Secretary.