The ruling alliance has rejected the demands for reforms in the caretaker government system and electoral rules while the Awami League (AL) led 14-party opposition combine declared street agitation to force the government to meet the demands.

The possibility of any dialogue between the government and the opposition has diminished largely when the prime minister at a BNP rally on December 22 in Paltan rejected the opposition demand and said the next election will be held under the existing system.

Political analysts forecast a volatile political situation after the opposition programme to march towards Dhaka on January 22. The opposition combine has planned to mobilise people from different parts of the country to gather in the capital on the day demanding reforms in the caretaker government and Election Commission to ensure free and fair polls.

They said the situation will take a dramatic turn if the main opposition lawmakers resign en masse from parliament. It will be a real challenge for the government.

If the Awami League lawmakers resign, the government will have to decide whether it will hold by-polls in 57 constituencies or move for an early election. And it will be very difficult to arrange by-polls in the vacant seats of the AL lawmakers, observers believe.

If the government goes for fresh election without reforms in the caretaker government system and electoral rules it will create another national crisis as the mainstream opposition parties have already declared that they will not participate in the next polls under the existing caretaker government system, rather they will resist it, a political analyst said.

An AL source said the party has a plan to resign from parliament en masse at a certain stage of the upcoming street agitation. Chances are very slim to join parliament for a day to save membership of the party lawmakers as they did in the past, he said.

Most of the lawmakers of the main opposition party are now on the verge of losing membership of parliament due to consecutive 90 days' absence from the House.

Leader of the Opposition in Parliament and Awami League President Sheikh Hasina has been abstaining from the House proceedings for 77 days and if her absence continues for another 13 days she will lose the membership as per rules.

The next session of parliament is likely to begin in the third week of January and it may be a long session running for several weeks.

OPPOSITION PLAN
The success of two divisional grand rallies in Khulna and Rajshahi has encouraged the opposition to stage similar showdown in other big cities. Opposition leaders said they are planning to hold rallies in Sylhet, Barisal, Chittagong, Rangpur or Dinajpur and Mymensingh which top leaders of the opposition will address.

About the January 22 'long march' towards Dhaka, an opposition leader said: "It will turn into a 'Dhaka blockade' and if the government tries to foil the programme as they did earlier, we will enforce tougher programmes including non-stop hartals."

When the opposition is planning to take the antigovernment movement to the peak by February, the government side is firm to face the opposition in the streets.

"We will not give any chance to Awami League and other opposition parties to take control of streets," said a senior BNP leader. He said BNP and other parties in the government will go for more street programmes to face the opposition.

About the government stance on caretaker government and electoral rules reforms, AL General Secretary Abdul Jalil said: "We will not allow anyone to hold the elections without carrying out the reforms that we have proposed."

"We will ensure people's right to vote and after that the national election will be held," said Jalil, also co-ordinator of the 14-party alliance.

Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD) President Hasanul Haq Inu said the next course of opposition movement will focus on resisting any "election of blueprint" by the BNP-Jamaat coalition government. "Opposition leaders will sit shortly to chalk out plans to mobilise people in the Dhaka long march programme," he said.