Will 2006 be better than 1996?
Farid Bakht
Making predictions is like walking into a minefield. So I thought I would do a little research. I looked at some op-eds from this time last year to see what they had to say. Rest assured, hardly anyone spelt out just how far the bombers would reach. Who predicted August 17's 500 simultaneous bombs exploding in practically all districts? Not me. Similarly, many got it wrong with the garments industry. It is not well but at least it is very much alive. So I am going to take the easy way out and admit I do not know what is in store. I will, however, try to ask the right questions which will take us half way there, and ask you to tell me the rest. Let us look ahead then, even if we are not looking forward to 2006. I am trying to avoid writing something along the lines of: The country is in crisis! Can anyone tell me when it was not in crisis? Which was the best year for Bangladesh? 1972, but surely only the first three months? Or 1990 when street power overthrew a dictatorship? Or 1995 when Dhaka share prices shot through the roof, while the London Financial Times ran headlines screaming: Dhaka is the hottest market in Asia? Will 2006 be the best or will it be one of the worse ones? It will not be the worst. Nothing beats the terrible famine year of 1974. Something in the air?
Nevertheless, it is true to say that the country faces a new type of crisis, with the appearance of a sustained, sophisticated bombing campaign and the introduction of suicide bombers. I am puzzled. Could you tell me where is it going, and what the end game is? I have not seen the foreign community baton down the hatches. The parties, field visits and meetings go on. There has been no serious security alert, no whiff of evacuation. Perhaps they have got the measure of the situation and know what is going on. Many are hard-bitten veterans who have seen it all before. If one has worked in Afghanistan, Sudan or Sierra Leone, then this might be merely a picnic in comparison. To find out where the wind is blowing then, you could do no worse than stand on a street corner in North Dhaka and stick your finger in the air. It is all quiet on the Gulshan front. For 2006, here are your nine questions: - Will the bombings reach new depths on the lines of August 17 but worse?
- Or will the Rapid Action Battalions break up the network first?
- Will Jatiyo Party and BNP join hands and become an unbeatable alliance, while the Awami League marks time?
- Will BNP say "sayonara" or will it be "au revoir" to Jamaat?
- Will the rejigged alliance do the unexpected and call a snap election, catching the opposition napping?
- Will the opposition do a workable deal on "electoral reform" or will it drag us into a pointless confrontation and boycott the elections?
- Will the incumbent regime be able to peacefully hand over power at the end of September to a 90 day caretaker government?
- Will the caretaker government be able to handle the election process in the face of unprecedented bombings and "reformed" electoral violence? Will 90 days mean 90 days or will it become another number?
- Will we miss cuddly Harry K Bangla?
Meanwhile, the rest of the 147,000,000 (minus 10,000 otherwise pre-occupied politicos) will ask: When will the price of rice and essentials come down? Will businesses be able to cope with multi-day hartals and showdowns? Will the Taka plummet to Tk.80 to the dollar as capital flight intensifies? Will inflation hit the roof? Will the garments industry haemorrhage orders and jobs as in 1996's pre-election impasse? Will remittances from migrants drop off as they wait and see what happens? Will investment collapse as foreign and domestic businessmen all go slow amid the uncertainty? What natural disaster will befall us? We escaped the tsunami of last Christmas. The last great flood hit us in 2004 and surely we will not be deluged on that scale for another four years? Who knows? Let us hope we avoid the long overdue cyclone too. Politically, 2006 bears some disturbing similarities to 1996, except we have a new wild card in play. By the end of 2006, if the answers to the questions above turn out to be benign and harmless, then I would say we were damned lucky. Enjoy the Christmas and 31st evening. Do not expect a happy new year. Just make a wish for one. As a footnote, I cannot leave you in such a negative mood. If everything else is depressing, let's forget the big picture and dwell on the good things. We can make 2006 the year of football. Bangladeshis normally support Argentina (strange but true) and we can all watch the World Cup Finals at 2 am in the morning. As long as the Ministry of Loadshedding allows us. And we can cheer on the exploits of our Argentinean-managed Bangladesh national football team too. Close your eyes and hope for the best. Maybe it will turn out OK, then? Farid Bakht is the author of a forthcoming book on the future of Bangladesh.
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