Congress confronts a challenge
Praful Bidwai, writes from New Delhi
It was the chance of a lifetime. On January 7, Ms Sonia Gandhi could have begun repairing the creaky 110 year-old Congress party machine by announcing elections to its Working Committee. That would have broken the undemocratic practice of nominating members. Such elections were repeatedly promised since the party's top decision-making body was reconstituted in 2004, and renamed Steering Committee. An elected CWC was to replace this before the January 21-23 plenary session in Hyderabad. However, Ms Gandhi again resorted to nominations. She had nothing to lose and much to gain from holding party elections. She enjoys tremendous goodwill and credibility because of her renunciation of the Prime Ministership. She would have enhanced her stature had she re-democratised the Congress, distanced herself from sycophants, and shown she's not obsessively promoting the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. There are only three surprises in the list of 20 CWC members. Mr Rahul Gandhi doesn't figure in it. But he could soon be co-opted. The new CWC is dominated by "old veterans." Only two members or special invitees belong to Generation Next. Third, Karnataka is over-represented, claiming 6 seats. The Congress runs an uneasy coalition there with the Janata Dal (Secular). The two clash over infrastructure development projects favoured by the pampered IT industry, the Bangalore metro, and the NRI-promoted Bangalore-Mysore freeway, lined with posh housing complexes, which will divide villages. The Congress's tie-up with JD(S) dissident Siddaramaiah in recent local elections has annoyed Mr H.D. Deve Gowda. He may precipitate mid-term elections. The Congress isn't well-placed to win these. Inducting six members from Karnataka into the CWC won't help matters. More generally, the Congress faces a gloomy prospect in the coming elections -- in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, and Tripura. In West Bengal, the Left Front seems set to win for the seventh time consecutively -- probably a world record. In Tamil Nadu, Ms Jayalalithaa could well win thanks to the tsunami relief operation and social security measures like free meals for the poor. In Kerala, the dice seem loaded in the Left Democratic Front's favour. It has swept all by-elections with unprecedented margins. Besides, Mr K. Karunakaran's faction has significantly cut into the Congress's base. In Tripura too, the Left has the upper hand. It's only in Assam that the Congress could put up a respectable fight thanks to divisions within the Asom Gana Parishad and its rift with the BJP. This year's elections, then, won't give the Congress a boost. It can at best console itself that the BJP probably won't do well either, and that the United Progressive Alliance's stability won't be threatened, despite differences among the constituting and supporting parties. Although the Samajwadi Party and the Congress are sparring over telephone tapping, the SP won't destabilise the Congress. The Left isn't happy with the Congress's policy direction. But so long as it broadly follows the Common Minimum Programme, and the Left vetoes unpleasant measures (like BHEL equity sell-off and pension privatisation), it'll keep the alliance going. The Left definitely doesn't want the BJP to return to power, whose prospect in any case seems distant. The big challenge to the Congress will come in 2007, in Uttar Pradesh. The party has no base in any sizeable group in UP. The real contest there is between the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party. The BSP, whose vote-share has more than doubled in 15 years, is now attracting groups outside its core-constituency, including savarnas, and the most backward classes. Ironically, the party grew on the strength of Dalit self-assertion against the domination of Tilak, Tarazu aur Talwar (respectively, Brahmins, Banias and Rajputs). The SP too is trying to entice savarna groups like the Kayasthas with job reservations. Reforming Congress is a formidable task. To address this, it's not enough that the party carry on with its present holding operation. It must strike out and prove its relevance. Only thus can it build a winning social coalition. The Congress's drift towards neo-liberal economics and a pro-United States foreign policy is the surest recipe for erosion of popular support. Yet, many Congress and government leaders favour this. Dr Manmohan Singh and Mr P. Chidambaram now regard 10 percent GDP growth as the key to "inclusive" development. They should know better. It's not for want of high GDP growth, but for lack of equity and employment, that the NDA lost in 2004. More growth within skewed income distribution will further widen disparities. The market is a hopelessly bad redistribution agency. This is the state's task. It can only perform it if it's economically strong. This inevitably means raising taxes to finance infrastructure growth, provide good-quality public services, and fund increased social spending and measures to correct geographical imbalances. These imbalances threaten to cleave India into what Amartya Sen recently called "a California" and "a sub-Saharan Africa." To regain pre-eminence, the Congress must do far better than guarantee employment to each rural family for a maximum of 100 days a year -- which can at best add to its income by Rs 6,000, or a very modest 6 percent. It must develop a comprehensive strategy to promote land reform, generate labour-intensive employment, revitalise the rural economy, support small enterprises, provide income security to unorganised workers, and establish entitlements to public goods including food, healthcare, education, shelter, and water. This means shifting the balance of forces between rich and poor decisively in favour of the poor. No party can win enduring legitimacy from the masses by making India the B-team of a global superpower. What people respect is fierce independence in foreign policy. They expect India to contribute to making the world a better place, not join the latest bandwagon. This means discarding the "holding operation" approach. The Congress must not shy away from ideological-political battles if it's to reinvent itself as a left-of-centre party committed to popular welfare. Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.
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