The Horizon This Week
After Iraq is it Iran?
Arshad-uz Zaman
Although there are no signs of the Iraq crisis resolving any time soon there are tell tale signs that the theatre action may shift to Iran. In the case of Iraq President George W. Bush donned the garb of the warrior and totally assisted by his ally Tony Blair, the Prime Minister of Britain, launched a massive attack against poor and defenseless Iraq. The only picture retained from the war was the pulling down of the giant statue of President Saddam Hussein. He had been painted by the western media as a blood thirsty dictator, who held secretly Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), with which he could rain terror on any part of the world. That Western inspectors were unable to find any weapons in Iraq did not bother the USA.President Bush like his father Senior President Bush tried to build a coalition and whereas father Bush had succeeded because Saddam was clearly the aggressor against Kuwait, the US propaganda machine failed to establish any valid reason for attacking Iraq. US, helped by her allies and particularly Britain, overran Iraq without any resistance. The resistance began shortly thereafter for Iraqi fighters continued to mount increasingly daring attacks and over the period have died by the thousands. But they have exacted a heavy toll of American lives as well. Except Britain most of US' allies have pulled out faced by heavy domestic criticism against a war that nobody wants to fight. The present picture is that the most powerful country of the world is bogged down in Iraq and wants to pull out. That would create a terrible image for the US and the attempt is to justify the invasion of Iraq by exporting democracy to the inhospitable climate of that country. Thus elections of various kinds have been held and attempts are going on for cobbling together representing the majority Shias of the south, the Sunnis in the centre and the Kurds of the north. Political intrigues are the order of the day. Although the Kurds are outnumbered by the Shias and the Sunnis, since it was the Kurdish leaders, who invited the Americans into Iraq, they have an edge over the two other communities and at present occupy the post of President of Iraq and the Prime Minister of Northern Iraq. Indeed the Kurds have their own flag in Northern Iraq and are behaving as if their long time held dream of independent Kurdistan was a reality. This of course puts the Kurds on a collision course against their three important neighbours, namely Turkey, Iran and Syria, who all have sizeable Kurdish population and are determined that they do not achieve statehood. Frustrated by the Iraqi misadventure, the US has announced that Iran, who is supposed to own a nuclear bomb, must be made to see reason. The preparation this time is not an invasion of Iran but swift bombing action against her nuclear facilities. The US has turned a deaf ear to Iranian protestations that she is not interested in possessing nuclear weapons but is determined to have facilities for peaceful uses of nuclear power. President Bush, who has been a great friend of Premier Ariel Sharon and mounted the attack against Saddam Hussein following his advice, has fashioned his Middle East policy according to the plan of Israel. Thus President Bush's Plan of the Greater Middle East and North Africa has Israel as the centre piece. The illness of Ariel Sharon, which virtually means an end of politics for Sharon, puts the entire Middle East in utter disarray. President Bush has lost his most valuable friend and guide. Indeed with the US support totally assured it was Sharon, who was calling all the shots and President Mahmoud Abbas of Palestine was no more than a spectator as Sharon was rearranging the map of the region including the fate of Palestine. It appears less and less likely that President Bush will have the nerve, without having the counsel of Ariel Sharon, to push Iran to the limit. The other members of the Security Council, minus Britain, are lukewarm to any firm action against Iran. And the truth is USA is a rapidly dwindling power and cannot afford to go it alone. The US has had spectacular retreat from various parts of the world. We recall how the US Ambassador escaped from Vietnam by a helicopter from the top of his Embassy roof. Faced with the might of the Iranian masses, she had to close her Embassy in Iran and has not been able to return since. There are unfriendly noises from her backyard in Latin America. The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is aware of the world picture and, therefore, can appear to be unbending. In the light of the Iraq debacle, when the talk is not if the US will pull out her troops but WHEN, it seems highly unlikely that the US would want to get embroiled in another adventure. The Middle East has witnessed a new player -- Ariel Sharon. With his disappearance from the political scene it is a whole new ball game. Arshad-uz Zaman is a former Ambassador and Acting Secretary General, OIC.
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