Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 600 Sat. February 04, 2006  
   
Business


Weekly Currency Roundup
Jan 29-Feb 02, 2006
Local FX Market

Demand for US dollar was high in this week and USD remained bullish against Bangladeshi taka

Money Market
In the Treasury bill auction held on Sunday, bid for BDT 6,198.00 million was accepted, compared with total of BDT 5,213.00 million in the previous week's bid. Weighted average yields remained at the same level.

Overnight call money rate was steady throughout the week. It ranged between 10.00 and 12.00 percent throughout the week.

International FX Market
The dollar rose to a four-week high against the yen on Monday, extending a week-long rally as investors warmed to the view that there was at least one more US interest rate rise in the pipeline. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lift rates to 4.5 percent on Tuesday, delivering its 14th consecutive quarter-point rise on Chairman Alan Greenspan's last day in the job after more than 18 years. US releases painted a mixed picture, but strong durable goods orders, an unexpected rise in new home sales and a rise in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge all encouraged traders to bet the central bank would keep its foot on the monetary brake. Futures markets reflect an 75 percent chance of US rates rising to 4.75 percent hike in March, up from 50 percent just over a week ago. The euro was also down against the greenback.

The dollar held firm against the euro and yen on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve hinted further monetary tightening might be on the cards after delivering its 14th straight interest rate hike by 25 basis points to 4.5%. In the statement, the Fed dropped the word 'measured,” which had signaled more tightening was likely on a regular, predictable basis at a quarter percentage point at a time. By 0905 GMT, the dollar was around a quarter percent high against euro. Against the yen it was also up 0.25 percent. This week's two major US releases -- the Institute for Supply Management's monthly snapshot on manufacturing at 1500 GMT and the January jobs report on Friday -- are expected to show upbeat activity and hefty hiring. But analysts believe the dollar will get limited support at best from further Fed policy tightening, with the European Central Bank already embarked on a gradual path of raising rates and even the Bank of Japan moving closer to doing so.

The dollar hit seven-week highs versus the yen and three-week highs versus the euro on Thursday, building on gains made after the Federal Reserve suggested this week that it may not be finished raising interest rates. The Fed raised its funds rate to 4.5 percent on Tuesday. Fed policy makers tweaked their post-meeting statement, which analysts said signalled future tightening might depend on economic performance. Dealers said the dollar was likely to remain firm ahead of a non-farm payrolls report on Friday that is expected to show strong US jobs growth in January and reinforce a case for more rate rises. Traders were also looking ahead to a ECB meeting later on Thursday, where the ECB is widely expected to leave its benchmark refinancing rate at 2.25 percent.

- Standard Chartered Bank