The Election Commission is virtually passing through deadlock since August 2005 because of war of nerves between the Chief Election Commissioner and the other two commissioners on the issue of preparation of voter list. The CEC's decision, ignoring the recommendations of other commissioners to go for preparing voter list on the basis of previous voter list, appears to be unprecedented in the history of Bangladesh. Preparation of fresh voter list involving an estimated expenditure of around Tk.1500 million appears to be not only unnecessary it is also irregular.

After the HC verdict against preparation of fresh voter list, the avoidance of the CEC to hold meeting of the commission appears to be adopting some trick to free himself from pressure from outside the commission. The option that appears to be open for him is either to act independently with advice from the commissioners who have the equal status with him or to resign from the post of CEC. After all, resignation of the CEC is nothing unprecedented. Only very active cooperation from his more experienced colleagues can make it possible for him to hold the 2007 election. This does not, however, appear to be a possibility and as such it seems there may not be any free and fair election under him, even with the recent addition of two new commissioners to give the CEC a majority.

As we see there is no possibility for a smooth, meaningful, and effective election in the present political situation. The four-party alliance and the Awami League, as it appears, cannot come to an understanding because BNP cannot leave JI. Though Jatiya Party of Ershad was considered at one stage as some sort of a balancing factor however, this does not appear to be any more feasible because of division in the party. Unless Ershad with 19 court cases hanging on him decides to resign from the chairmanship of the party, JP cannot play any effective role in Bangladesh politics.

We are not sure as to the capability of Bikalpadhara to emerge as a strong force against BNP. None of the smaller parties appear to be performing better than their past record. Due to growing influence of political mastans, some experienced and capable leaders may not be able to obtain party nomination in both BNP and AL. This may happen particularly in BNP because of its compulsion for leaving 70-80 seats to JI. Some of these disgruntled leaders may contest independently. It would not be surprising if a considerable number of them are elected because of their past records.

Not only in holding election. Bangladesh is also facing the danger of becoming a failed state. Neither political nor social nor economic situation indicate any encouraging sign for the common people. Statistical analysis showing growth may be useful for raising credit rating. It does not convince us that raising the level of investment has benefited the poor people as was expected.

There is no indication showing improvement in the level of corruption or law and order situation. ACC is still non-functional. Extra judicial killings can never root out violence. In fact the government is still showing hesitation in controlling Islamic militancy. Good plan can hardly be executed successfully with highly politicised, corrupt, and inefficient administration. Common people are suffering from serious insecurity because of Islami militants, high price of consumer goods.

The image of Bangladesh has already been tarnished abroad because of corrupt administration, confrontational politics between major political parties, failure of the government to control militancy and insecurity of minority communities. Despite loud claim, the government has failed to play appropriate role in the WTO, maintain or improve relations with US, or EU countries or India or Japan or South Korea, or even with OIC countries.

In making public statements, we often see use of strong (sometimes harsh even) expression by some of our ministers. This is either because of weakness in drafting the statements or sheer lack of adequate depth of knowledge to deal with foreign governments. We may not have enough leaders (political or otherwise) to handle foreign diplomats from advanced countries or donor agencies, we must refrain from using harsh or unkind words about donor agencies or developed nations or neighbours.

Time has come for us to concentrate on improving our diplomatic parlance. We must not forget about our need for support from friendly states and donor agencies to tackle our various economic and social problems effectively and rapidly. We should never ignore the fact that we shall have to go a long way to become even a mid-level income countries because of good number of hurdles.

It would be wrong to try to win the election through vote rigging. This would be just like jumping from frying pan to fire. As we see, BNP has the capacity to win election without any support from any other political party if it can maintain its image as a moderate Islamic party. By seeking support from JI it may even lose some votes because JI's image has already been damaged due to JMB's nefarious activities. Close association with JI will definitely create an impression that BNP also supports militancy though BNP has a considerable number of freedom fighters in its fold.

It is true that BNP has not been able to fulfil some major commitments during the last election. This does not mean that they are totally without success. Had they been more prudent about nomination of their candidates and members of the cabinet, had there been no tendency to copy some misdeeds of the previous government, had there been more cooperation from the opposition, had there been no mischief by the Islami militants, BNP could, perhaps, have done better.

No successful election is possible without successful political negotiation. Showing strong arrogance or threat will not lead us anywhere. It is still not clear as to why the government is afraid of facing the people with reforming caretaker government or electoral laws. Are we to believe that the present government may like to go for anything, right or wrong, to win the election to retain power. Already the Election Commission is at a standstill because of CEC's failure to understand clearly his actual role as the chief of the commission. What will happen to the new recruits from the JCD?

Killing of two judges by members of a militant group in broad daylight has made the life of public servants insecure. How many officers can be given police protection against suicide bombers. In such a situation, is it advisable for the government to increase the possibility for further deterioration of law and order situation before election.

In the past we have seen that the strong dictators like Ayub Khan or HM Ershad ultimately bowed down before the wish of the people, only about ten years back Khaleda Zia herself showed respect to the wish of the people. Though limping, we are still maintaining democratic government. We do not expect from BNP any act that will destroy democracy. On the other hand, we hope that sooner or later the Awami League will realise their role to protect Bangladesh against Islami fundamentalists, in enabling the democratic forces to revive their strength to fight for secularism and retain our existence as a free nation.

We wish that the new CEC would realise the true situation and decide quickly and correctly as to how to accomplish the task of conducting a free and fair election in the present situation. However, we cannot be optimistic under this commission.

ABMS Zahur is a retired Joint Secretary.