Governance and politics are unlikely to detract from outcomes on the MDGs in which the country is on track. However, they are likely to be critical determinants of outcome prospects in the off-track MDGs. In the case of safe water, the contentious issues will be the incorporation of private sector and market pricing, safety nets for the poor, and, development of effective regulatory structures. To its advantage, Bangladesh is already embarked a rich variety of experiments on these contentious issues.

Access to energy is likely to be the most critical of future challenges with implications both for growth and MDG attainment. While a great deal of experimentation is going on in the area of renewable energy, this will remain an auxiliary, albeit important, source in the context of power needs of a 5% plus growing economy. Bangladesh will have to look to its gas and coal resources as well as the hydro-power potential of the sub-regional context. Politics and governance are and will be key determinants of outcomes in these areas. Policy vacuums as well as lack of transparency in dealing with the issues are emerging as critical concerns. The role of development partners will also be a factor. Indeed, a flawed policy decision of the development partners in the mid 1990s when the power sector was given up for private sector financing which failed to materialize has been an important contributory factor to the power constraint on the growth process.

The challenges on the health MDGs have less to do with politics per se. It is the governance challenges which are paramount here. The government has established emergency maternal healthcare centres. They are not functioning well because of the lack of decentralization and proper management. Potential oversight bodies such as Upazilla health advisory committee remain dormant. In the cases where these have been activated often with NGO initiative, there have been qualitative improvement in outcomes. MPs are ex-officio chairs of such committees but are neither regular in holding the meetings nor inclined to delegate so that meetings could be regular even in their absence. If these types of governance challenges can be addressed, it will be very much feasible to attain these MDG targets.

On the education MDGs, gender parity is already achieved and enrolment too has seen major expansion. However, universal net primary enrolment and completion remain off-track. The critical challenge is quality but also renewed targeting of the bottom ten percent of the population. Bangladesh is already ahead of several South Asian countries, notably India, in the proportion of public resources devoted to basic education. Nevertheless, additional resources will be necessary. Non-budgetary challenges lie in the introduction of pre-schooling, a curb on rampant private coaching, and better performance monitoring. The PRSP has identified the introduction of a school meal as a potential quality-enhancing intervention through prevention of drop-out and improved retention capacity particularly of poorer children.

Politics and governance: The balance of possibilities
It is easy to despair of politics in Bangladesh if one focuses only on the all too-visible political culture of confrontation and bickering. But certain less visible facets of the political dynamic are also germane to an assessment of political and governance prospects in the coming decade. These pertain to issues of political system development, role of the electorate, entry points for governance improvement, and, emerging flashpoints.

The contrast of doomsday scenarios and eventual occurrence of time-bound elections has been a common feature of the three elections held so far since 1991. However, it would be wrong to conclude that the process has been a frivolous one. In 1991, a substantive issue i.e. switch to parliamentary form, was achieved. In 1996, the substantive innovation was on the caretaker formula. In 2001, the political idea of level playing field gained sway. In 2006, the substantive agenda which is likely to endure as a democratic gain is the independent election commission. Clearly, the last fifteen years has been a case of democratic agenda-building despite the questionable quality of politics. The agenda-building may have been minimal but the discourse space has undoubtedly expanded. However, critical system building challenges loom, most notably, rationalizing MP jurisdiction, strengthening opportunities for institutional grooming of political aspirants, and, reversing the trend towards a disregard of standards in the critical area of appointments.

From a process perspective, an equally significant though less focused development has been the quiet rise of the electorate as a force to be counted in the political space. This is important because even though electoral democracy is in place in many parts of the developing world, it does not necessarily follow that it is the electorate which is one of the critical actors in shaping the political dynamic. Bangladesh even had the unfortunate experience of 'voterless elections' under the overt military rule of the 1980s. Similar experiences abound in other parts of the developing world. The emergence of the electorate as a political force in its own right is therefore never a given but has to be seen as a specific political achievement. The three national elections of the past fifteen years provide a clear demonstration of the significance of such a process. It is instructive to note here that notwithstanding the politically-connected corporate ownership of the media, it is consumer and citizen aspirations which is driving the media content. This is in sharp contrast to the government-controlled media which enjoys far less popular legitimacy.

The other critical feature of the political dynamic to be highlighted is the relative autonomy of aspects of the policy process which has allowed for incremental, albeit uneven, policy and governance gains on targeted economic and social issues. While politics has detracted from 'big' policy decisions, a secondary process of 'small' achievements has accumulated, notably on procurement, aspects of the judicial process, aspects of land administration, social safety nets, direct financing of local governments etc.

An audit of the political dynamic will thus highlight three critical features: a dysfunctional political culture, a policy process lacking political capacity on 'big' decisions but relatively open and engaged on 'small' challenges, and an electorate assertive on the basic issue of continuity of competitive democratic politics. On current prognosis, all three features are likely to persist in the coming decade. This means a continuity of both the electoral cycle and the existing growth momentum. However, quality improvements in politics as well as a significant acceleration of the growth process is unlikely to emerge without the appearance of major new strategic 'inputs'.

An assessment on the balance of possibilities must also take into account likely flashpoints on the horizon. Two bear attention. Firstly, the issue of utilization of energy resources is demonstrating the potential to develop into a political minefield with unforeseen consequences. Secondly, quality divides in education, unless addressed urgently, may fuel discontent and engender social conflicts which are unlikely to be mitigated by the opportunities of existing growth process.

Strategic challenges
On the road to 2015, Bangladesh can at once be both confident and apprehensive. Segmented victories are clearly within reach. But the goals being forged in people's hearts is for a sum greater than its parts. The quest is not for enrolment alone but for the quality of the education, not for the right to vote only but for a polity democratic in both its structures and norms. The strategic challenge really lies in addressing this larger sum.

From an operational point of view, the challenge is in identifying agendas which have the greatest strategic promise. Five such can be highlighted.

Political system building: With its plurality of drivers, the significance of politics in Bangladesh does not lie in being a prime mover but in fulfilling effective framework conditions. The first of these, namely time-bound elections for transfer of power, is in place though periodically subjected to uncertainty. Two critical 2nd-order system-building challenges have now emerged: firstly, promoting checks and balances through clear demarcation of jurisdictional boundaries. For example, the rampant jurisdictional claims of MPs is stifling institutional growth of grass-root democracy as well as having myriad adverse consequence on governance and democratic norms. Secondly, strengthening opportunities for ethical and institutional grooming for political aspirants. The idea of public service ethics has fallen into disrepair and efforts to rekindle such a process is likely to reap rich governance dividends.

Ring-fencing to foster quality institutions: The second is a pragmatic idea of fostering institutional quality in selected strategically significant institutions such as public service commission, election commission, central bank among others through a conscious strategy of ring-fencing. Given that the political system lacks the capacity and the will to undertake big-bang institutional reforms, concentrating on selected strategic institutions is a vital 2nd best, and more importantly, achievable avenue to pursue.

Continue the focus on governance solutions with small g: A frequent mind-set barrier to effective agenda formulation on governance is to over-focus on big solutions i.e. governance with a capital G while neglecting the window of small solutions i.

e. governance with a small g. A recent useful contrast is between the “big solution” of reforming the land record system. Though efforts on this front are nearly a decade old, progress to date has remained elusive. In contrast, an effective “small solution” was the recent change in the Stamp Act, a small administrative innovation by a reform-minded bureaucrat which has produced multiple benefits. In one modest stroke, the amendment has led to cost savings for the government, removed some of the institutional sources of corruption around the printing, distribution and forgery of stamp papers, reduced the bureaucratic load on the sub-registry offices, and reduced the hassle for the buyers and sellers of land. Such small solutions serve to improve the quality of governance as a process, are effective entry points to pry open intractable macro-governance agendas, and provide real-life demonstration of what is feasible in contexts which may not be amenable to more ambitious reform. Bangladesh has gained from an engagement with this micro-governance window and a more strategic engagement is likely to bring better results.

Addressing quality divide in education: The gulf in standards between rural and urban schools is a threat to achieving a MDG which is otherwise within reach. However switching from an access focus to a quality focus is not a matter of mere administrative re-adjustment. The challenge is both at the level of mind-set and at the level of intervention initiatives which are contextually meaningful. The latter includes promotion of pre-schooling, social campaign against commercialized private tutoring, activating local communities, administrative and management structures for performance monitoring, fast-tracking English learning, linking training to class-room practices, recognition of existing good practices, and, establishing model schools outside metropolitan areas.

Overcoming infrastructural constraint on growth: The contemporary infrastructural challenge for Bangladesh is on a qualitatively different plane than when the country was a subsistence-dominated agrarian economy with low level of urbanization. The reference framework for today's infrastructural vision is a rapidly urbanizing market economy aiming to maximize growth dividends from the synergies of a burgeoning domestic market and a competitive globalization process. While important gains have been achieved in rural road connectivity, infrastructure, most notably power and port, has already emerged as a binding constraint on the goal of accelerated growth and poverty reduction. In the coming decade, the three priority challenges will be comprehensive resolution of the power constraint, development of strategic national and regional road transport corridors, and, development of the full potentials of the Chittagong Port as a national and regional gateway.

Hossain Zillur Rahman is Executive Chairman, PPRC and Keynote presenter, Governance Session, Asia 2015 London Conference.