In order to avoid further deterioration he urged the leaders to avoid confrontational politics through intense dialogue and narrow-down their differences on critical issues as well as to develop a culture of development oriented politics for growth and prosperity of the country by making the national parliament the centre for resolving all aspects of economic and social life of the people.

As the nation is going through a difficult time due to adverse internal as well as external factors, he said political sagacity and visionary leadership is of utmost importance to overcome the economic and political crises. "We do earnestly hope that our leaders will not let us down," the ICCB president said.

Mahbubur Rahman was speaking at the ICCB Annual Council 2005 held in the conference hall of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), Dhaka on April 15.

A report of the executive board for 2005 was presented by Rahman at the council, which observed that pressure on foreign exchange reserve as well as on the exchange rate might continue, as higher import cost of oil and other commodities would drive the depreciation of taka further.

It was of the view that despite the contractionary monetary policy pursued by the central bank, the inflationary pressure continues to remain in the economy eroding real earnings of limited income group people.

"Continuation of the tight monetary policy including raising of the interest rate to contain inflation works [only] little [and] rather cast [a] negative impact on business and investment," it added.

The ICCB annual council, however, appeared to be optimistic that the steady expansion in industry and service sectors coupled with strong recovery of agriculture sector, would create a higher GDP growth in the fiscal 2005-06.

The council agreed on Asian Development Bank's latest projection that long-term consequences of the loss of quotas for the garment industry, the knock-off effects of high global oil prices, weak governance and political uncertainty, especially in the run-up to the January 2007 elections may slim down medium-term growth prospects for Bangladesh.

Mentioning the crisis of power and fertiliser as an ominous sign in the horizon, the ICCB report also apprehended that the power crisis would reach a record level in this summer and as a result all consumers -farmers, industrial, commercial and domestic would be hit hard.

The power crisis coupled with scarcity of diesel oil has already did some damage to Boro cultivation this year and the crisis of fertiliser, allegedly created by a section of unscrupulous dealers, has also put the farmers in great distress, the report observed.

If the situation continues like this, production of Boro, a major rice crop, will be less than expected. As a result common people will be seriously affected due to increase in prices of most basic food items, mainly rice.

The report mentioned that Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC), the sole importer of gasoline products is having difficulties in opening L/Cs due to non-payment of huge outstanding import bills to major nationalised commercial banks. Moreover, in the absence of credit facilities from Islamic Development Bank, the government has decided to borrow $250 million short-term loan at a higher interest rate from a foreign commercial bank.

The report said, in spite of some reforms in fiscal management, revenue collection has not been satisfactory thus compelling the government to borrow more from the banking system.

The report, however, mentioned that the budget deficit during 2005-06 would be within manageable limit of 4.5 percent of GDP due to lower level of Annual Development Programme (ADP) implementation.

The council observed that against all apprehension, the readymade garment (RMG) sector posts sustainable export growth in the first year after phasing out of the mutli-fibre arrangement (MFA), which gives the economy a big relief.

The report expected that growth in the volume of global trade would increase slightly and remain at the double-digit level for emerging and developing countries.

It was observed that because of decline in non-fuel commodity prices, inflation would come down in emerging and developing economies.

It was stated that due to capacity constraints and various protectionist measures by rich nations, the least developed countries (LDCs) could not avail equal opportunities of globalisation, which has been availed by economically powerful countries.

The council said like Cancun the poor countries were terribly disappointed by the outcome of the Hong Kong ministerial about a fair deal of Doha Development Round.

"Even after a few months since the Ministerial Declaration, LDCs are not quite sure about their gains and losses since their fate will be decided in future meetings in Geneva and Washington this year," ICCB president said.

Among others, President of Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) MA Momen, former Deputy Prime Minister Jamal Uddin Ahmad, Managing Director of United Insurance Syed Aziz Ahmed, Managing Director of KAFCO Peter A May, Managing Director of BOC Bangladesh Waliur Rahman Bhuiyan, former BGMEA President Annisul Huq and MCCI Secretary General CK Hyder took part in the discussion.

The council was also attended by ICCB Vice-presidents Latifur Rahman and Samson H Chowdhury, ICCB's executive board members also FICCI President Masih Ul Karim, Insurance Association Chairman M Shamsul Alam, ASM Quasem, R Maksud Khan, Mamun Rashid, Aftab Ul Islam, and Nasir A Choudhury, and ICCB's members Barrister Rafique-ul Huq, Dr M Zahir, and M Haider Chowdhury.

Chief executives of banks, insurance companies, multinationals and industrial houses also attended the council.