The outcome did not spring any major surprise. There was however Communist euphoria over sitting West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's sweeping electoral success within his own state. At the same time, there was acknowledgement from the Left Front Chairman, Mr Biman Bose that the Leftists had won 'only' a little more than 50 per cent of the vote. In fact, it received 50.24 per cent of the votes in contrast to 48.99 per cent the last time round in 2001. This humility was balanced by others within the Communist front who were keen to point out that this time the popular percentage support for the Trinamul Congress, their perpetual bete-noir had declined to 28.53 per cent as compared to 38.95 per cent in 2001.

The Left Democratic Front came to power in Kerala by dealing a severe blow to the Congress-led UDF, winning 98 seats in the 140-member Assembly. The DMK-Congress alliance wrested power in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry. In Tamily Nadu, known for landslide victories (achieved alternately by the two Dravidian parties), Ms Jayalaitha's AIADMK was ousted from power but the victor DMK fell short of a majority by about 15 seats in a House of 234.

The incumbent Congress suffered a setback in Assam in their quest for securing majority, but emerged as the single largest party. It may be recalled that the Congress had won a clear majority in Assam in 2001, but this time there was a split verdict. The Congress will now have to look for allies from within the Bodo party and the Assam United Democratic Front headed by Mr Badruddin Ajmal.

This erosion in support for the Congress in Assam has, quite predictably, led to comments about Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's style in politics. It is now being openly suggested that he is being seen as aloof and needs to refashion himself as being 'more responsive to people's needs and aspirations.' It is also being hinted that he needs a 'stronger' political presence to interface with the party (Congress) and get independent feedback. This anxiety has surfaced given the fact that the Congress will face another slew of Assembly elections next year in Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Gujarat, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh.

Coming back to West Bengal, analysis indicates that Mamata Banerjee of Trinamul Congress appears to have got her figures drastically wrong. The 'people's mahajot' against the Left did not materialise. The results now indicate that even a combined Opposition of the Congress, Trinamul Congress and the BJP would not have been able to knock the Left out of power in these elections. These polls have reaffirmed once again the declining popularity of Trinamul. This trend has been consistent with their poor performance in the Lok Shaba elections in 2004, when the percentage of their votes dropped by 8.85 per cent in comparison with the 1999 parliamentary polls.

The results also underlined that Mamata's choice of the BJP, and not the Congress, as the alliance partner has cost her heavily. It is now being estimated that the alliance with the BJP had cost her a large share of the Muslim votes, especially in urban, semi-urban and industrial areas. Analysts have mentioned that the Left's clean sweep in the industrial belt in North 24 Parganas, Howrah and Hoogly, where there are large populations of Urdu-speaking Muslims, seems to indicate this. Her assumption that the Congress would further shrinking under the weight of her politics has been proved wrong.

Compared to Trinamul, the Congress's performance in West Bengal has not been that bad. Its tally and its vote could have gone up higher had it not fared so badly in its two strongholds of Malda and Murshidabad.

Another interesting facet came out from the West Bengal election. The agrarian belts of north and south Bengla voted for the Left as enthusiastically as the industrial areas in Howrah, Hoogly, North 24 Parganas and Burdwan. This, for the first time, confirmed the Left's comprehensive resurgence throughout West Bengal.

'The Statesman' (published from Kolkata) in its editorial of 12 May, has significantly stated “Marxists would prefer to view political success and failure in ideological and organisational terms, and would say that the projection of personalities is the hall mark of bourgeois parties. But even diehard ideologues will concede that the Left Front sweep in West Bengal is largely attributable to an individual, Mr Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, and the brand of communism or capitalism, he has come to represent.” The buzz-word here is 'capitalism.' One anticipates that in more ways than one, efforts will now be undertaken within West Bengal to woo greater foreign direct investment in areas like agro-processing, tele-communications and information technology. One presumes that this will be seen as consistent by the middle class and the rich urban Bengalis who have become new converts to the Left and now want the Communists to be more flexible.

The highlight of Bhattacharjee's success is the legitimacy it gives to successive victories of the Left Front since 1977. This victory under close scrutiny of the Election Commission also rids the Left of charges of rigging that has hounded them over the years.

One thing is transparent from these elections. Constituents of the UPA amalgam ruling in New Delhi have received renewed backing from their constituents, but it is also evident that underneath the surface, because of the Left's popularity, there will be some effort to effect changes in the power equations at the Centre among the UPA partners.

It is also clear that after the conclusion of the current session of the Indian parliament, the Congress headed by the massively re-elected Mrs Sonia Gandhi (from her Rae Bareli constituency) will have to engage the Left afresh on pension reforms and FDI in the retail sector, the two issues that the Indian Prime Minister wants to move forward. Congress also realises that now there will have to be more give and take with the Left.

The election results have also established very clearly that alliances and coalitions are inevitability for the Congress, both at the Centre and increasingly in the States.

It is also very obvious that the Tamil Nadu result has made it virtually impossible for an alternative government to be formed in the 14th Lok Sabha. The BJP and some regional parties have tried a few times in the last two years to see if an alternative coalition to the UPA can be forged in New Delhi. This was contingent on the DMK switching sides. Now such a possibility has become remote given the fact that the DMK will be dependent on the Congress to run the government in Chennai (with a strong Jayalalitha in the opposition). Such an adventurist posture consequently will be less likely.

Nevertheless, the emboldened Left will definitely keep the Indian Prime Minister under pressure. Congress leaders like Ajit Jogi and other dissatisfied elements will also continue to seek and propose the presence of a 'political' Prime Minister. Dr Manmohan Singh will have to tread a fine line between now and the rest of his term.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador who can be reached at mzamir@dhaka.net