I think most voters are under no illusion about the state of the economy of Bangladesh at this point of time. Rampant consumer price inflation has aggravated the sufferings and miseries of already miserable people of this country. The BNP-led government maintains that skyrocketing oil prices and state of the world economy is primarily responsible for higher commodity prices, but most people reckon that manipulation by unscrupulous businessmen and bureaucratic corruption are the main culprits. Nationwide power cuts not only disrupt trade, commerce and industries but also damage the country's reputation as a low-cost, efficient industrial producer. Majority of voters think that the economic situation in the country has worsened along with their personal economic circumstances.

Deterioration in the economy and in personal economic expectations normally lead to a decline in the share of votes. The BNP-led government should realise that rises and falls in support for them can be accounted for by factors to do with the state of the economy. Although economic policy making lies at the heart of politics, but electoral choice is also constrained by the reality of the alternatives on offer for the voters. The Awami League's noisy razzmatazz may be good enough to attract people's attention, but it may not be effective enough to swing the votes in their favour, unless they show genuine political commitment to address the real issues facing the national economy. Leaders of the Awami League should not think that voters are ill-informed, non-ideological and least interested in party politics. Now-a-days, most voters assess policies, parties and their leaders. Voters know exactly many of the parties' platforms and hold clear view on a range of political issues and accordingly endeavour to and whose style of government they can respect.

Militant extremists of the opposition alliance seem to take the view that widespread political agitation, direct action and strike after strike may easily damage the image of this government and consequently pave the way for their defeat at the forthcoming general election. The right to engage in direct action and civil disobedience is often justified by the argument that people have an absolute obligation to disobey the unjust laws of the state.. Here again, this involves people setting themselves above the law.

Direct action challenging the rule of law may encourage more general lawlessness in the country. Voters may consider such action as a quite illegitimate challenge to an elected government. Conventional wisdom holds that most people are ignorant about the specific laws and they do not know which law is unjust and when such unjust law demands disobedience. Strangely enough, feuding leaders seem less sensitive to human tragedy and suffering they inflict on innocent people. The greatest irony is that ordinary people of this country are paying a terrible price for a conflict not of their making. Politics is the art of compromise. Both the major parties cannot carry on their ruinous feud indefinitely. Most voters expect that the feuding leaders reopen dialogue and find a possible way out of this quagmire. Negotiations will have a little chance of success if both the parties maintain such an intransigent position. I think it is the responsibility of the incumbent government to give some kind of leeway to resolve this trivial issue.

Unlike neighbouring India, Bangladesh is coming nearest to two-party system. Smaller parties will never be able to form a government given the dominating presence of the two major parties within the first-past-the-post electoral system. Voters those who do not take a partisan line are in a difficult situation where there are two equally unacceptable choices. To take vengeance on BNP led coalition, they might be tempted to vote the Awami League, not because of their past economic records, but to punish the BNP for their intransigence and failure to cure the disease of widespread corruption, mal-administration and high-inflation. Incumbency often becomes electoral liability when things go horribly wrong and are exploited by the opposition in ways that resonate with voters.

Typically, Bangladeshi voters are keen on punishing a bad performance than convince on rewarding a good one. The Awami League led alliance needs to emphasise the importance of the way they appeal to voters. They have to the voters that they are the natural governing alternative and they are fit to govern and can ensure security and prosperity the people of this country. In a two-party contest, a winning party has to advance policies near to the centre because that is where votes lie thickest. Mr Anthony Downs, a British political scientist, observed that political party leaders are entrepreneurs who are in the business of maximising votes in order to win elections and secure the fruits of office.

Fundamentalist image of some political parties once regarded as an asset by some sections has now become a clear political liability. Our educated middle-class and more prosperous section of the people may not wish to see an Iranian style clerical regime gradually take hold in this country. Alliance between the BNP and fundamentalist party is no longer a marriage of convenience. Social trends have inevitable political consequences and general view is that most people want to see Bangladesh as a moderate Muslim state. As the BNP leadership appears to have leaned heavily on fundamentalist parties they may not be able to extend their policy appeal to the moderate and progressive minded voters.

In Bangladesh there is a wide gap between democratic ideals and the corrupt realities of politics. We cannot behave democratically without democratic structures. Voters expect that political leaders should try to create a more perfect democracy. The harsh reality is that widespread practice of "money politics" and the political campaign in an intimidating manner by political thugs may tilt the political balance in favour of economically powerful party.

Anam A Choudhury is a former investment banker.