Immediately after Ershad's meeting with Begum Zia, the JP faction leader Anwar Hossain Monju also met with the PM. Monju dubbed Ershad as a major political player, suggesting necessity would dictate Ershad's stance on alignment.

There are pulls and counter-pulls within the mainstream JP for and against alignment with either of the two major political forces in the country. Ershad's younger brother GM Qader leads the pro-AL trend in the party while Rowshan Ershad represents the BNP-leaning tendencies. Ershad's recently divorced second wife Bidisha who was expelled from JP was known to be pro-AL. It is her such leaning that led Ershad to disown her before the BNP government.

Some reports have it that Ershad, feeling so much sought after, reportedly upped his bargaining chips as the price for alignment with BNP demanding 75 JS seats, president's post, one-third of the cabinet positions, withdrawal of 12 corruption cases lodged against him, and the proceedings to put Rowshan Ershad's house on auction. Exactly how much accommodative BNP would be to his demands is not known.

The proximate cause for the Khaleda-Ershad meeting lay in the fact that JP leader Kazi Zafar Ahmed, who is identified as a BNP-leaning leader, had had a meeting on "electoral understanding" with the Awami League.

Ironically, given the anti-incumbency downslide in the ruling BNP's popularity, the party which commanded two-thirds majority in parliament is now keen on coalescing with both the Jamaat and Jatiya Party. Tareq Zia has stated that Jamaat and BNP are in the same family in an apparently pointed reference to possible realignment with the party.

The respective strengths of Jamaat and Jatiya Party in 1991, 1996, and 2001 elections make an enlightening reading in terms of their stocks in trade as far as future electoral politics goes:

Jamaat in 1991 received voter share of 12.13% and 3 JS seats; in 1996 voter share of 8.61% and 17 JS seats; and in 2001 voter share of 4.29% and 17 JS seats.

JP in 1991 received voter share of 11.92% and 32 JS seats; in 1996 voter share of 16.40% and 14 JS seats; and in 2001 voter share of 7.26% and 14 JS seats.

The five years since the last general election have been eventful and the state of politics may have transformed intrinsically without our realising it enough, something that will only become clear when the returns of the next general election will have been posted.

Whether the Bidisha affair has undercut Ershad's popularity, one has to wait and watch for it. But more importantly, how in the light of sharper public consciousness of political extremism engendered by the bombing incidents, Ershad's role in making Islam the state religion of Bangladesh and pandering to Islamist lobby will be seen, is an open question.

Turning to Jamaat, which has had a declining support base in terms of vote bank from 1991 through 1996 to 2001, though not in the number of JS seats obtained as such, the point of determination would be whether the incidence of extremists bombings and Jamaat's purported links to JMB have alienated the religion based parties from the voters.

In 2001 Ershad quit the four-party alliance out of fear for corruption cases. Taking part in the election on its own, the JP bagged only 14 seats. Having been incarcerated he couldn't also stand for the election. But the big difference is he can now participate in the election after having done the five-year waiting period since conviction.

Now the 12 cases against him that are hanging fire are a lever in the hands of the government while Ershad's electoral clout is his bargaining chip. Ershad's stakes lie in being on the winning side which would exonerate him from the corruption charges. Ershad will bide time until in his assessment the party to come out winner has been identified.

The major political parties have a history of aligning themselves with parties having ideologies different from theirs. So, theoretically JP would be welcomed by both the alliances. Besides, JP's political plank is the other side of the BNP coin. For Ershad, the only principle he can work for is his full political rehabilitation.

SH Imam is Associate Editor of The Daily Star.