A startling statement as it may seem on the face of it -- no headway having been made on the key procedural issue of holding a dialogue on the substantive questions of electoral and caretaker government reforms, removal of the CEC and his two commissioners and ensuring availability of an authentic voter list, yet even in this frustration zone, there is a flicker of hope kindled by the tenacious business community.

Their throwing the idea of a bipartisan start to a dialogue between the secretary general of BNP and his counterpart in Awami League has apparently caught the imagination of the ruling party and the opposition top brasses. So long the question of dialogue itself was ensnared by BNP's insistence on Jaamat's participation in the talks and AL's vehement opposition to it. The secretaries general meeting could be a workable compromise solution, since a dialogue had to be held at some stage to start ironing out differences between the major parties for the elections to be made possible with a broad-based participation.

Strangely, the secretary general level meeting which looks such a plausible option has been pushed into uncertainty as Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan and Abdul Jalil keep insisting on each other to make a formal request first. This is inexplicable because one would have expected that the onus lay on the government side to take the initiative. It seems, however, neither side wants to take the blame for a failure of the talks or maybe it is just another round of ego-play.

By all accounts, after the caretaker government is constituted in October, there is a strong likelihood of a broad framework of electoral understanding emerging beyond what is now known as the 14-party alliance. Awami League is holding parleys with Jatiya Party (Ershad), Bangladesh Communist Party (CPB), Bikalpa Dhara Bangladesh, Zaker Party, Bangladesh Islami Oikya Jote, Islami Shashantantra Andolon (constitutional movement -- Chormonai peer), Tarikat Federation, and the like. Although the madrasha teachers' association called Jamiatul Modarresin is not a political party as such, for strategic reasons Awami League wishes to use the Modarresin as counter-poise against Jaamat.

With some such parties AL is contemplating to forge parliamentary seat apportionment arrangements. AL leaders tend to think that Jatiya Party (Ershad) has not had too friendly a relationship with the government during the last four and a half years and that Jaamat being opposed to Jatiya Party coming to the BNP fold, JP is only expected to be drawn to Awami League.

Jaamat and Jatiya Party at their levels are political rivals on the national stage. In 1991 and 1996 elections JP bagged more seats than Jaamat. Then in 2001 elections, Jaamat in spite of its electoral alignment with BNP secured only three more seats than JP. If all the factions of Jatiya Party are put together, they fared better than Jaamat. That's why Jaamat is keen on keeping Jatiya Party at bay from BNP.

It is understood that Awami League has altogether three plans revolving around Jatiya Party and Bikalpa Dhara. First, foster a big alliance with Ershad; secondly, have an alliance with Ershad as its chief; thirdly, forge a united front with Bikalpa Dhara including those disgruntled by failing to win BNP tickets and different Islam-oriented parties.

Sheikh Hasina is prepared to concede a large chunk of seats for the sake of accommodating other potentially election winning parties. To this end, she has urged her party colleagues to be ready to make sacrifices. Some tested leaders of Awami League may have to forgo their claims to party ticket. We are told highly affluent seekers of AL nomination are in communication with party top brasses. The capacity to win is going to be the criterion.

Both Begum Khaleda Zia and Hasina are in a process of meeting party men and women at the grassroots to impress upon them the need for sacrificing for the sake of embracing new entrants. The task may not be easy.

In public perception, the major political parties by their unabated confrontational posture against each other might have unwittingly estranged their relations with the electorate. In that context some political pundits were even apt to suggest that the voters might be looking for a third alternative to both BNP and AL. But such predictions seem to fall flat on the ground that neither any alternative force has emerged in the political arena nor do the objective conditions permit the genesis of a third force as yet.

It is very much the two major political parties and their alliances that call the shots.

SH Imam is Associate Editor of The Daily Star.