Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 763 Thu. July 20, 2006  
   
Editorial


Strategically Speaking
Reaping the whirlwind


The Mumbai blasts are once again very painful reminders of the utter helplessness of the many to the ill motives and the wicked actions of the few. But there are some important issues, which emerge from the incident that is worth expanding on.

But to start with I cannot resist quoting a friend of mine on the Indian government's reaction after the blasts. He writes: "New Delhi did not react by dispatching bombers, tanks, gunboats, and artillery to start a regional war, nor did she mete out collective punishment to people at random, nor kill innocents dubbed as 'collaterals'. If they did, I could not distinguish them from the 'equal opportunity killers' who blasted the Bombay train! Indeed, if New Delhi behaved like Washington DC or Tel Aviv, I'd be utterly disappointed. To me, that would be the demise of the last bastion of civilized people on earth. True, India spends $32 billion in defense each year, but the country has not been taken over by war-profiteers -- at least not yet."

One could not agree more.

However, one notices that perhaps for the first time recriminations are being hurled at the ruling alliance at the Centre by the BJP, which has used the scrapping of POTA as an issue to smash the UPA's anti-terrorism strategy, its kid-gloved handling of terrorism, ostensibly for political gains. This is quite what we get to see in Bangladesh.

A striking resemblance of the Mumbai blasts to our situation is the failure of the Indian intelligence apparatus to get wind of the matter or pre-empt this from happening, and being as yet without a definite idea as to the real perpetrators. And while we in Bangladesh are very prompt in pointing an accusing finger at the incompetence of the Bangladesh intelligence agencies for their inability in predicting such occurrences, our intelligence agencies can perhaps take comfort in the fact they are in elite company. But then, "we know what we know, but we do not know what we do not know" is an apt characterization by a senior US counter-terrorism expert of the gap in our knowledge that constantly outruns our efforts to make up the shortfall of information in our fight against terror.

But what is not surprising was the rush by the Indian media to link Bangladesh to the blasts, particularly the extremely premature comments on Bangladesh being the source of supply of the RDX has made light of a very serious matter. One is surprised how fast the Indian media's intelligence apparatus functions. It had verified and confirmed that the explosives were supplied from Bangladesh when even the Indian government agencies were and still are undecided as to the type of explosives used in the blasts, let alone ascertain the source of it.

One has to marvel at the competence of the Indian media at having determined definitively, not only the type of the explosives, but its source so very soon after the blasts. One feels that the South Asian media should refrain from rushing to judgment and mutual blame game for the sake of objective investigation of the matter.

Apart from that, some Indian analysts have suggested that the perpetrators have been trained and worked out of bases in Pakistan and Bangladesh. There is a talk about terrorism being outsourced by Pakistan in order to "maintain deniability" to certain countries in South Asia and the Middle East, and Bangladesh is one of them. Some authors have quoted sources linking Bangladesh to the bombings.

One feels that the problem of terrorism we are faced today requires more objective evaluation of the issue and not knee-jerk reactions. Otherwise the menace will continue to grow and destroy the fabric of our society in South Asia. There are few things that we must recognise as being a reality and proceed to act from there.

First, several Islamists parties have emerged with radical views that resort to exploiting religion for their tactical goals. In India, a section of the minority community that uses the real or perceived repression against them to motivate their fellow religionists to resort to violence, have set up these groups. In Bangladesh, these groups are made up of certain elements of the majority community but have quite a different charter, if not a separate modus operandi. They have grown more because of the internal political flux.

A link between them for ideological support, if nothing else, may not be entirely out of the realm of possibility. The linkages of the non-state elements, be it the Naxalites or the communist elements through the Maoist Coordination Committee or the LeT, HuJI or the HUM through their own net work, or the LTTE, have prospects to be more than a nuisance. Thus there is a need for a regional view to address this phenomenon concertedly and without any pre-conceived notions.

Secondly, as despicable as these acts are, and nothing can justify killing of innocent civilians, it will do no harm, in fact it would help in tackling the menace, to look into the reasons behind the blasts. In this context, comments of B Raman, an Indian analyst, appearing in a well-known think tank web-site following the July 11 blasts are worth a close look.

He says: "Jihadi terrorism in Indian territory outside Jammu & Kashmir is a post-1992 phenomenon and is attributable to the feelings of hurt and anger caused in the Muslim community -- particularly the Muslim youth -- by the demolition of the Babri Masjid ... aggravated from time to time by feelings of anger over alleged police atrocities against Muslims and over alleged police failure to protect Muslims. A third cause for anger since July last year has been the growing close relations with the US and the perceived failure or reluctance of the government of India to express itself openly and in strong language against the violations of the human rights of the Muslims by the US. Such feelings of anger have resulted in a series of acts of reprisal terrorism since 1993. One should not be surprised if there is an involvement of India Muslims in the blasts of July 11, 2006, too."

And in Bangladesh, the religious fanatics wanted to establish Islamic rule by killing innocent civilians. The counter-strategy will thus have to be country specific since handling of the religious radicals in Bangladesh will differ from the way it will be tackled in India or Pakistan. That also goes for those that are provoked by different political ideologies.

South Asia as such is in the vortex of the crisis with terrorism afflicting most of the countries in various degrees. Very little purpose will be served by failing to acknowledge the menace. Otherwise we may well be sowing the wind, its consequent whirlwinds we may not be able to withstand.

The author is Editor, Defence and Strategic Affairs, The Daily Star.