Though the discussion between Khaleda Zia, H M Ershad and Roushan Ershad was held in secrecy, our efficient press was active enough to gather adequate information for reasonable speculation. Ershad told the press that the discussion mainly hovered round a private matter about the recovery of a residence of Mrs Ershad. Our press was smart enough to guess about the real agenda, an attempt to draw Ershad as an alliance partner in exchange for some benefit.

It is speculated in some quarters that Ershad's separation with Bidisha was mainly because of his strong desire to save the JP from disintegration. With regard to the present state of the 4-party alliance, reports are trickling down about growing pressure from a substantial section of BNP to make the party less dependent on Jamaat's support, because of the recent exposure of various nefarious activities of JMB. Apart from this there are, reportedly, serious rifts in the leadership in certain constituencies and also the danger of division of vote banks of BNP.

Under the leadership of Khaleda Zia BNP has apparently emerged as a political party capable of facing any challenge from the Awami League. From a party dominated by retired armed forces personnel it has now become a party dominated by the business class.

Should we call it demilitarisation and civilianisation?

However, merely serving the party is not enough, now one must have the ability to contribute substantially to the party funds to secure a leading position. Thus we see that a good number of senior dedicated activists of the party could not hold any important position in the alliance government. During the alliance rule for the last four and a half years the high command of the party failed to properly utilise the services of some mature, experienced, intelligent and efficient leaders.

It appears strange that even this jumbo cabinet (52-members) could not accommodate some of the most dedicated BNP followers. Perhaps the advisors of Hawa Bhaban have made some serious mistakes in choosing the cabinet ministers in a number of cases. Needless to say that some alliance ministers are more interested in their own welfare and less in the welfare of the people or even the party.

It has been reported that more than 58 per cent of BNP lawmakers belong to the business community. Because business people find little time for political work a majority of them have failed to attend even the parliament sessions, though they are supposed to be believers in parliamentary democracy. The same may be true also in the operation of parliamentary committees.

The JP of Ershad, and Zia's BNP, are similar in structure and ideology. The founders of both the parties happen to be from the armed forces and,as such,are less democratic than AL (though AL's attempt to introduce Baksal was certainly undemocratic). Both JP and BNP depend too much on their chairpersons. In case of any serious mishap at the top the parties may be in serious trouble.

Khaleda Zia is, of course, trying to train her son to handle the intricate problems of party politics in future. In fact, Tareq Zia has started understanding the various intricacies of politics at the field level to avoid and overcome any danger of under-reporting or misreporting. In JP, on the other hand, some of its frontline leaders (such as GM Quader) are not happy about the dictatorial attitude of Ershad as the chairman of the party.

As indicated earlier everything is not going on well in BNP camp. The Young Turks are becoming increasingly ambitious and the senior politicians are gradually losing ground to the junior leaders. The most well-known example is the recent clash of personalities between Mr Saifur Rahman and Mr Ilyas (both lawmakers of BNP). Apparently the PM has ably controlled the situation.

The BNP-JP reconciliation bid is certainly an important event in Bangladesh politics. The JP was created mainly by turncoats from BNP after the assassination of Zia. In fact a majority of BNP leaders at that time thought that BNP would disintegrate because of lack of strong leadership. They could not rely on the weak leadership of an aging Sattar.

The emergence of Khaleda was indeed a miracle for the BNP. With no political experience she could convert BNP into a major political party with the strong help of BNP's student wing. However, this seems to have created a problem for the high command now. It has become difficult to maintain a balance between the old stalwarts and the emerging new leadership.

JP does not have any problem with student politics because it did not have any student wing. JP does not have much hold in the south, except in some constituencies of Sylhet and Barisal. BNP's hold on the other hand is strong in the southern districts. Because of JMB activities in districts like Bogra and Rajshahi the image of BNP has been damaged to a certain extent in the north.

On the other hand JP still has some support base in Rangpur. It may be pointed out in this regard that in some constituencies in Chittagong BNP may lose some support because of internal conflicts. Because of possible changes in nomination for the next election BNP may lose a few seats in Feni and Noakhali also. An additional problem for BNP will be rather big demand for seats by JI.

Whatever Ershad may think about his party's support to BNP, it is extremely doubtful that the majority of JP will agree to JP-BNP alliance because of their suffering at the hands of BNP during the 1991-96 regime of Khaleda. They are also not very convinced about the success of BNP in the next election because of (i) exceptional price hike of essential commodities and (ii) lack of attention to problems of rural people. Thus, if Ershad insists on an alliance with BNP there may be a division in the JP.

In the circumstances JP may opt for going alone, whatever may be the difficulties. In fact the image of JP is somehow brightening up because of administrative failures of AL and BNP during the last 15 years. However, these parties will remain major parties. With a better performance in the next election Ershad may be the kingpin in forming the government, because none of the major parties are likely to gain absolute majority.

A B M S Zahur is a former Joint Secretary.