This latest gimmick, full of ominous threats, is an attempt to draw global attention and support from both the Sunni and Shiite camps. This message also reflects al-Qaeda's bankruptcy and desperation. The Egyptian-born doctor-turned-terrorist also appealed the "downtrodden," Muslim and non-Muslim, to join the jihad against the "tyrannical western civilization and its leader, America."

The message is significant. It may signal some fundamental changes in the body politic of the Middle East or al-Zawahiri's Muslim world, from "Spain to Iraq" in the near future. It is significant because for the first time we hear al-Qaeda appealing not only to Sunni and Shiite Muslims to take up arms together, fight and die for "Islam," but it is also inviting "downtrodden" non-Muslims to join its jihad. However, al-Qaeda's track record, aims and objectives are neither appealing to the main stream Sunni Muslims, nor to Shiites, let alone non-Muslims.

It seems al-Qaeda will have to perform miracles to win over the estranged Shiites. During the last days of al-Zarqawi's genocidal, indiscriminate killing of Iraqi Shiites, al-Zawahiri had advised the former against the indiscriminate killing of fellow Muslims, However, after the killing of al-Zarqawi last June, al-Zawahiri paid tribute to the slain leader in glowing terms. Neither al-Zarqawi stopped indiscriminate killing of Iraqi Shiites nor are his successors shying away from doing so. Al-Qaeda is engaged in an all out war against Shiites in Iraq, and whenever it gets an opportunity, it hits Shiites in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere. Considering Shiism a heresy the fanatical al-Qaeda regards the "heretic" Shiites the main stumbling block in its way to an Islamic utopia.

This has prompted an analyst to surmise: "The Enemy of My Enemy Is Still My Enemy," hinting at the discomfiture of al-Qaeda at the growing popularity of Hezbollah as it could not lend support to the Shiite militants. Israel being the common enemy of both Hezbollah and al-Qaeda failed uniting the two against the common enemy. Al-Qaeda till last week was in a state of panic, worried at losing out to Hezbollah, which had already won over sections of Hamas, a predominantly Sunni Palestinian organization.

Meanwhile something very dramatic, another least expected development, has taken place. This time the surprise came from the battle fields of southern Lebanon. With the failure of the more numerous and well-armed Israeli commandos, backed by heavy artillery, tanks and air cover, to dislodge Hezbollah fighters from their strongholds, Israel seems to be in a state of panic. It may not be panicking apprehending defeat, but its failure in making much headway two weeks after the invasion is turning it nervous as this setback almost amounts to a defeat. While Lebanese media and people on the street have remained defiant, still publicly supporting Hezbollah and condemning Israel for the killing of civilians and devastating their country, some leading Western analysts are raising the very unpalatable questions for Israel: "Is Hezbollah winning? Is Israel losing the war in Lebanon?"

It is significant that while Israeli failure to score a quick and decisive victory in Lebanon is becoming headlines in the global media, al-Qaeda is trying to fish in the troubled water. And as there is no last word in war and politics, an al-Qaeda breakthrough in winning over sections of the Lebanese population, Sunni Palestinian refugees for example, does not bode well for Israel and its allies.

It is not unrealistic that as the desperate al-Qaeda is making overtures to its hated enemy, the Shiite Hezbollah, to fight together against Israel, if further pushed against the wall, Hezbollah might extend its hand towards al-Qaeda as well. There is no point debating who needs whom more desperately: al-Qaeda to remain relevant in the eyes of its sympathizers or Hezbollah to sustain itself against its over-powering enemy.

We need to feel the Shiite pulse. Shiites also despise Israel. Israeli invasion of Lebanon and its primarily targeting Shiite/Hezbollah strongholds must have intensified their hatred of Israel. If al-Qaeda decides to disengage itself from the Iraqi civil war to win over Shiite support, it could be catastrophic. Despite its strong reservations about al-Qaeda's methods and philosophy, Hezbollah could be transformed into a dependable ally of the proponents of global jihad. Confusing Hezbollah and Hamas with al-Qaeda, as President Bush insists on doing, in the long run might bring them all closer to each other.

In sum, neither America should undermine the latest al-Qaeda overtures to Hezbollah nor should it oppose all attempts for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. America should read more into the al-Qaeda overture to Hezbollah. Are the al-Zawahiri video and the vexing question about Israel not winning the war bringing back Condoleezza Rice to the Middle East for implementing an immediate ceasefire? It is significant that Israel is no longer insisting on having twenty-odd miles of buffer zone between itself and Lebanon. It seems to be happy with a couple of miles of barrier, which in not enough to save the country from Hezbollah rockets.

Meanwhile two most startling developments towards ceasefire, if not a lasting peace between Israel and its adversaries, have taken place in Washington and London. The first one is the least expected decision to send Secretary Rice to the Middle East. Her going back to the region within three days after her return from the diplomatic fiasco in Rome is very meaningful. So long she had been opposing any move to bring a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, for the sake of a "lasting peace." Let us see how she finally justifies US government's volte-face to bring peace between a sovereign state and a private militia run by Hezbollah. The second turnaround in London and Washington vis-a-vis the Lebanon crisis, as displayed in the joint Bush-Blair press show in Washington this Friday, was also very significant and comical at the same time. Both the leaders, in the most unconvincing manner, tried their best to save face and favoured a UN-sponsored peace mission in the Middle East.

These latest developments are quite comforting for peace lovers. However, one is not sure if these overtures -- gambits and gambles -- will lead to a ceasefire under UN supervision. It is most likely that Bush-Blair's volte-face will further embolden Hezbollah and its supporters across the Muslim world. In view of these dramatic events, al-Qaeda's overture to Hezbollah, Bush-Blair's about face, Secretary Rice's going back to the Middle East in quest of peace and Israel's willingness to accept UN-sponsored peace process -- one cannot help but ask the question: Is Hezbollah winning?

Taj Hashmi is a writer and historian.