There is no short or straight answer except to analyse what is happening in India. To begin with, Indian authorities are not novices; they knew that Pakistan government at this stage could not have winked at Mumbai bombings. The recent expelling of an Indian diplomat shows several things: among them the long-running war between the intelligence agencies of the two countries.

Both governments know that each country posts spooks in its embassies; a calibrated tolerance is usual. Some think that in this case the decision may be deliberate; may be a signal to India about the frustration over India's perceived lack of interest in solving outstanding problems. However it is a reversion to the cold war between the two countries. This underlines the basic antagonism in the relationship between the two longstanding rivals. It is saddening. Were the two grandstanding by their recent PR moves for the benefit of outside world?

The specific reason for freezing the Process may be that New Delhi is unable to move further because of political troubles. The Manmohan Singh government today is under siege. It is being pulled from right and left. Manmohan Singh himself was thought to be the head of pro-American lobby inside the Congress and is not just a figurehead; he may be politically a relative lightweight as Congress leaders go, but he is no pushover. But he is not merely a PM but is supported strongly by the pro-American lobby and the Americans have done so much to strengthen his position.

Actually the Indian polity, or call it the Indian middle class, is fundamentally divided. The rise of the Hindutva-supporting parties represented the end of Nehru era. It was a radical change. India became divided between the left forces, on the one side, and the rightwing forces, on the other. Over the years the rightwing forces have consolidated. The rightwing alliance of major social and political forces comprise the big business, India's largely bureaucracy-led Industrial-Military Complex, and both these tend to support the Hindutva's parties. The Congress is itself divided between pro-American and anti-American lobbies. Anti-American lobby comprises those still wedded to Nehruvian ideas, especially non-alignment.

Leaving aside the trouble from the mild or parliamentary Left, there has been a near revolt against Manmohan Singh's Pakistan policy. Remember what he said about converting Siachin Glacier into a Mountain of Peace; he was to visit Pakistan to finalise a few agreements; and he had indicated some progress on Kashmir, probably reducing troops in, if not demilitarizing, the disputed state. First a defiant statement came from an Indian general; then opposition to troop reduction was articulated in the media as well as by some more military men. Then there was opposition to March 2006 Indo-American agreement on nuclear reactors from what is bureaucracy; it was strongly supported by the Right, including the corporate press and media. Manmohan Singh had to stop dead in his tracks.

The parliamentary Left sometimes impedes but does not really threaten to withdraw support. It is inhibited by the numbing fear of the Right rushing in the vacuum that may be created, by the collapse of UPA government. That is how Manmohan gets away with his pro-American policies. This Left is still too small: 61 in a House of 543. It has not yet an alternative to the Right.

Being small in numbers in the Parliament does not mean that its influence is small. On the contrary, a lot of Congressmen, especially its still active workers, think the way the Left does. Where would anyone put Mani Shankar Aiyer or even Natwar Singh? Academia is full of Leftists and corporate press has not entirely got rid of all journalists thought to be Leftist-inclined. Leftist thinking is alive and is capable of kicking.

But there is another and harder Left that is seldom mentioned. These are Maoists or Nexalites. There are three or four groups of them. While their violent methods are not about to paint all of India red, they are a force to reckon with -- at least in the future. As of now, they have created a distinctive Red Corridor from north Bihar to Andhra Pradesh; 150 out of 600 districts fall into this Corridor. While it would be foolish to disregard their potential, no one should forget that they have yet to defeat the Indian Army of a million well-armed men. That will be no joke. Anyway much of the drama lies in future. For the present, it can be noted that the Indian state has not been able to contain their growth. And should New Delhi throw its Army to do the job, no early success is to be expected. Still, this Left is not being taken into account by most Indians.

In recent years Indian governments have gone headlong into the American camp. That was indicated by India's vote on Iran in IAEA, the way Manmohan Singh pushed out Kunwar Natwar Singh and virtually demoted Mani Shanker Aiyer, despite these two being close to Nehru family in the past. But even this government is now under attack from the Right, although Congress' own rightwing is authentic Right. India's Right behaves as if it is a big force, for Big Money is with it. It now appears that Indian bureaucratic apparatus, especially its nuclear and military establishment, can also assert itself, strengthening the Right. In short, the Right can thwart India's vaunted democracy.

The political future of Manmohan Singh government will be determined not only in the contest between the Left and the Right wings but also by caste-based parties. The future roles of BSP, Laloo Prashad Yadav's and Mulayam Singh Yadav's parties would be crucial for the future of populous Hindi-Hindu belt. Nothing can be said about the ultimate shape of things except that an element of uncertainty is woven into these caste-based parties: they now tend to favour leftwing rhetoric, especially on the communal question. But they can as easily help a rightwing government, as some supported the Vajpayee government.

Today, the divisions inside the Congress matter and they bode ill for its own future. It used to be a broad church under which there was always left- and right- wings. But the top political leadership somehow kept the two in harness. Now the top means who? There are three groups represented by Sonia Gandhi's Nehru loyalists, Arjun Singh and his friends, and other right wingers like the home minister and his friends.

There is another difficulty for it: The major share of support from the big business goes to Hindutva parties, Congress may be impoverished. Perhaps it will eventually split. No firm policies vis-a-vis Pakistan can be expected from this Indian government; it will probably vacillate between being friends and lurching into hostility. But there is a slight ray of light in the gloom: India needs Pakistan as a whipping boy who is needed to be demonised and blamed for India's many problems. That means Pakistan's longer-term security.

MB Naqvi is a leading columist in Pakistan.