The leaders of the BNP, it is reported, have been advised to refrain from making any adverse comments on Ershad's activities. On the other hand, Jamaat-e-Islami consider that joining of the alliance by Ershad will not make much of a difference and in fact the alliance partners feel that the alliance does not need support from JP to win the election.

But, BNP, as it appears, cannot depend on such assurance. It is apparent BNP may have some considerations to go for absorption of attacks of JI and a part of BNP such as: (a) awareness of disadvantage of incumbency factor, (b) tarnished image of the party due to terrorist activities by the Islami militants (mainly), (c) bad handling of minority affairs, (d) current image of pro-fundamentalist parties, (e) unprecedented price hike of essential commodities, (f) high inflationary condition, (g) failure in curbing corruption, (h) growing dissension in the party because of inequitable distribution of benefits, and (i) failure in producing enough of power.

High politicisation of administration may backfire in some critical areas. It is common knowledge that a politicised bureaucracy tends to go sometime against the interest of the concerned party or the concerned government. The majority of a politicised bureaucracy show leaning toward a particular political party because of their self interest not for any other considerations such as loyalty to party or respect for political ideology. The moment they sense any form of danger of jeopardising their interest they do not hesitate to betray. It may be pointed out in this regard that the history of Bangladesh is replete with incidences of betrayal and hypocrisy.

Thus, much benefit may not be expected from a politicised bureaucracy. In regard to ordinary party activists, we may say that they will make sacrifice (if necessary) as long as their own interests are served. Because many of these activists change their leaning towards other parties, they know well how to swim with the current. They, however, lose interest in this exciting job once they can make enough of fortune because majority of them basically prefer enjoying their ill-gotten gains to the humdrum of political life with lots of risks and hazards.

Those activists who firmly believe in the ideology of the party do not change their colours, but they expect that the party high command will give them their due i.e offer them important positions. If the high command of the party fail to offer them their due to various reasons, these people may not hesitate to involve themselves in actions prejudicial to the interest of the party.

The parties must be aware of the change in the attitude of the political leaders at the grass-roots level. We see that more and more educated and knowledgeable people are showing interest in politics at the grass-roots level. This may further improve with the strengthening of local government and devolution of more power to the local bodies. The major parties will commit a serious blunder if the local heroes or popular local leaders are ignored during finalistation of the nomination of candidates. If the front-line leaders lose contact with the grass-roots level leaders, they may commit mistakes in political judgement.

We see that some eminent leaders of BNP have already left the party. Among them are Messrs Budruddoza, Mahi Chowdhury, Abu Hena, and Abdul Mannan. Some others, it is reported, such as Col (retd) Oli Ahmed, Ashraf Hossain, and SK Abdur Razzak, may also leave the party soon. Final decision about Saifur Rahman is awaiting. It is at this juncture of the party that JP decided to join the alliance. BNP's eagerness to invite Ershad (at high cost) appears to be due to dwindling of confidence in JI. We hope that the present haziness about it will disappear soon.

The experience of BNP to handle a coalition government is not considered adequate. In the allocation of seats for the next election it is to be seen how far the advisors of Hawa Bhaban are capable of distribution of seats to the satisfaction of their alliance partners and the party itself. Tackling of Ershad appears to be tougher than handling JI because of Ershad's shrewdness, experience, and intimate knowledge about politics and administration of Bangladesh. Though Ershad will be gainer from the deal, it is not clear whether JP as a party will be gainer or loser.

The present political situation is tense. The main causes may be identified as: (i) ruling party's indifference to any reform in EC or caretaker government, (ii) unacceptability of voters list prepared under an arrogant and enigmatic CEC and ECs, and (iii) AL-led 14-party alliance's refusal to participate in the election without proper discussions on reforms in EC and the CTG. It is extremely doubtful whether reforms can be completed under the CTG through ordinance. Thus the fate of the next election is uncertain.

A few months back the Bikalpa Dhara chairman stated that a large number of existing BNP MPs may resign from the party -- signs of dissension in the party are becoming clearer. It may be premature to draw any firm conclusion about the situation. It is, however, comprehensible that the present relationship between BNP and JI (Jamaat-e-Islami) may lose some warmth if BNP-JP deal is successful. We may also see another interesting political development -- resurgence of the Pir of Attrosi, a close ally of Ershad. Within a couple of months we may see more discards and more inclusions or increase in number of independent candidates.

ABMS Zahur is a former Joint Secretary.