But the government of Cuba has not been scared by the US "threats" of a "possible" US attack. It has even justified the "dearth" of news about Castro's health condition, arguing that the country "faces a clear and imminent threat from America." So the prowling wolves have already started howling to celebrate a grand feast in the near future!

It may be mentioned here that in 1959, a young, and almost unknown, bearded man named Fidel Castro appeared on the Latin American soil of Cuba. He later proved to be a powerful personality, taking control of Cuba, and giving the biggest shock of the century to America by forming a new revolutionary regime under his leadership. It was the first Latin American regime to take a stance against the US government and free itself from the political influence of America. And Cuba happens to be one of the 51 "original members" that established the United Nations

I am praising Fidel Castro, not because he is a communist leader, but because of his guts and boldness in defying the orders of the most powerful nation of the world -- America. If some of our Asian and Arab leaders could show a fraction of Castro's bold leadership in the face of US hegemony, then the world could have been saved from many cruel and inhuman trials and tribulations.

Cuba under threat
At first Fidel Castro used to call himself a democrat, even after he became an iron-handed dictator. But later he changed his tune and declared that he was Marxist-Leninist, and Cuba was put on the road to communism. This change came when America was directly involved in a sinister move, in the sixties, to remove Castro from power and put in a candidate of its own choice, with the help of the so-called Cuban exiles. But Castro parried the attack, dealing a fatal blow to US plans. This was perhaps the first US adventure in Cuba, since Castro came to power, that misfired. But Castro kept marching on to his goal, defying all US-laid plans. Even the demise of the mighty Soviet Union due to the machinations of US intelligence service in the eighties could not cow down Castro, although he lost Moscow as a powerful ally. Castro followed his own anti-US strategy declaring openly that Cuba, and he, were always under threat from the United States.

CIA failure
But the most striking feature in CIA's history is that when it could so successfully penetrate the iron-curtain, built by Stalin, to bring down the most powerful US rival, brick-by brick, and razing it to the ground, it could not touch a single hair of Castro, who escaped every attempt made on his life by the CIA agents.

It may be mentioned here that during the last 47 years of his rule as the undisputed leader of Cuba, Fidel Castro had narrowly escaped hundreds of attempts on his life, the official figure being 640 attempts. It is a mystery that he could escape every such murderous attempt. As they say, "threatened men live long." Castro has proved that to be true. It is, therefore, quiet natural on the part of the Cuban exiles to celebrate Castro's exit from power, though temporarily, on health grounds. To them, the curtain has fallen on Castro's regime.

President Bush is tightening his belt to enter the arena to exploit the vacuum created by Castro's absence. He had already offered support and help to the Cuban people to usher in a democratic government in the country. He had directly called upon the Cuban people, as if he was their only well-wisher in this hour of crisis, "to push for democracy" in the absence of the dictator, Castro, declaring that America was "ready to help Cuba's transition to democracy." He also strongly criticised "imposition" of Raul Castro on the Cuban people by the out-going dictator. Perhaps America would prefer a "democratically imposed" person who would follow the path shown by US democracy, of course, through a democratic election. But will Bush succeed in Cuba?

Bush's tin-pot rhetoric
However Bush's call has already been dismissed by a cross-section of the Cuban people, including prominent legislators and newspapers. The editor of Youth Rebel newspaper labeled Bush's call as "tin pot rhetoric," while a legislator had called it an "epitome of delirium."

Anyway, whether Bush is in "delirium," uttering his "tin-pot rhetoric," or not, the US Republican representative, Jaff Flake, a long-time critic of the Bush administration's Cuba policy, asserted that America "is in no position to help" Cubans, adding "we are more distant now than we ever have been from the Cubans." Flake warned that there is a "widespread misconception that as soon as Castro is gone, US will be able aid and assist a transition."

But, certainly, such words of wisdom will fall on deaf years, and Bush will go ahead with his plan of action to put Cuba on the right track, as he had done earlier in Iraq and Afghanistan. Only a couple of weeks back the Bush administration released a report on US's Cuba policy, the main theme of which was to tighten the embargo on Cuba and secondly to establish a fund to bank-roll Castro opponents.

The question of tightening the embargo on Cuba may be shelved for the time being, with preference given to the establishment of a fund to bank-roll Castro opponents. The creation of the fund for the golden hand-shakes with the Castro opponents is likely to bring better harvests for America this time, provided it is not marred by any sudden flood or typhoon.

While America follows a hard and fast policy towards illegal immigrants from other countries, it keeps its doors wide open all the time to welcome the Cuban exiles as honoured guests, mainly on political grounds. Perhaps America cherishes the hidden hope that one day they would act as weapons to put an end to the Castro regime for good. But this has not succeeded so far.

In 1961, there was an abortive attempt by the Cuban exiles, nurtured in America, to attack Cuba with US assistance. But it totally failed, ending in a fiasco. It is known as the Bay of Pigs debacle. But the worst came in 1962 when the relations between the two countries reached their lowest point. In October that year Kennedy announced that Russia had installed inter-continental missiles, and Ilyushin bombers, on the soil of Cuba. For some days the world seemed to be on the verge of nuclear war. Then Kennedy threatened Khruschev that the US would use force unless those were removed immediately and a deal was reached. The world heaved a sigh of great relief, no doubt.

Bush must be musing about his future plan of action to build a democratic state of Cuba as a progressive country. It all depends on what measures he adopts in near future. He, however, should keep in mind what hot kick-backs he had received, and is still receiving, in Iraq.

He also shouldn't forget what humiliation America had to swallow in Somalia when the US forces were literally driven out of Somalia and a dead US soldier was lynched by anti-US demonstrators on the streets of Mogadishu, the ghastly scene of which was telecast all over the world. Therefore Bush should think twice before he leaps into the black hole.

A M M Shahabuddin is a retired UN official.