Closeup Japan
Abe takes the helm
Monzurul Huq writes from Tokyo
The Japanese Diet in an extraordinary session has voted Shinzo Abe, the newly elected leader of the country's main ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), to the post of prime minister to succeed Junichiro Koizumi who retired after serving the top post for five long years. At the age of 52, Abe has become the youngest post-war prime minister of Japan and the first to have been born after World War II. These mere facts should have been enough to get a clear signal of the winds of change that have been blowing in Japanese politics for quite some time now. But one should be careful enough not to count the generational differences alone to come to a definite conclusion of any real change in Japanese politics. Abe has already nominated key party leaders and filled his cabinet mainly with his supporters and people close to him. Both party and ministerial nominations give clear indication of continuity of the reform policy pursued by the outgoing administration, though there are only a handful of those like Foreign Minister Taro Aso who have been able to retain their cabinet posts. The thirteen-member cabinet consists more or less of senior LDP figures and most of them appear willing to continue the reform initiatives of the Koizumi administration. In addition to the cabinet posts, Abe also has appointed a number of junior ministers and, for the first time, nominated five relatively high-ranking LDP politicians as assistants to the prime minister. As a result, his new administration is now set to start functioning amid expectations that a relatively younger head of the Japanese government would not only initiate new ideas in helping the country to come out of economic stagnation, but also help Japan to find her rightful place in international politics. This second task might turn out to be a tricky one as Abe, despite his youthful vigour and age, has always been regarded as a politician whose policy line is not far from the old guard, willing to ensure Japanese domination in Asia. This is probably the most striking feature of Japan's new prime minister that runs contrary to the deceptive view that some people might have looking just at his age. For Abe, though he rightfully represents the younger generation of the ruling LDP politicians in terms of age, the legacy of the older generation is not something quite easy to discard. It is not only because he is surrounded mostly by those who do not fall into the really fall into the category of younger politicians, but also because he carries with him the strong legacy of a political inheritance that has its root firmly placed in conservative ideas on crucial social and political issues. Being the grandson of the former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi, Abe has long been seen as a champion of constitutional revision and an enthusiastic patron of initiating a bill that would change the Fundamental Law of Education aiming at creating an environment to make Japanese feel more proud of their motherland. These are the ideas that young Abe inherited from his grandfather, who is seen by many as the leading figure of conservative thought in post-war Japan. As Abe starts his tenure with a chosen team of politicians he feels would be able to help him strengthen his hand, his popularity remains his greatest strength as well as the main cause of concern. His firm stand against North Korea, particularly on the issue of abduction of Japanese nationals, and the strong position that he always held on China over the controversy of Yasukuni Shrine visit made him popular, as many started to consider him a politician with a firm commitment. The more he expressed his strong commitment to such controversial matters, the more he was seen sailing in the tides of spreading nationalism touching other highly debated issues ranging from the revision of constitution to the controversy over history textbooks. Now as the head of the government he probably needs to slow down a bit, at least to show Japan's extremely suspicious neighbors that he would move away from his predecessor to mend ties with Japan's Asian partners. Initial signs are not bad at all, as instead of showing signs of antagonizing further Japan's Asian neighbours by making hasty commitment concerning his plan to visit Yasukuni Shrine, Abe so far remained cautious by not declaring what he intends to do. Although some find this standing of the new Japanese prime minister ambiguous, both China and South Korea seem to be convinced that they would be able to get along with the new Japanese administration much better than with that of the outgoing one. Japan and her two most important neighbours failed to arrange any summit meeting for more than one and a half years because of Koizumi's repeated visit to Yasukuni. Abe has declared that mending relationship with China and South Korea would be among his priority issues. As a result, some in Japan have also started to see him as a politician capable of drifting away from the pre-set political mould to a new platform in line with the demand of the time. According to those subscribing to this idea, if the new prime minister continues to show such pragmatism in connection with other crucial issues too, this would eventually put a firm end to the age-old practice of behind-the-scenes maneuverings in politics for which LDP is notorious. But will he be able to uphold this expectation? Initial signals clearly show that no drastic policy changes are on the cards and he most likely, at least for the time being, would not diverge much from the policy lines of his predecessor, who during his five-year tenure has changed drastically the way of choosing the party leader. In choosing the leader of the LDP, importance is no longer attached to policy or experience, but to the capability of acting as a drawing card to win the elections. Koizumi was master of that capability and it is this single most important factor that helped him to sustain for so long. Compared to Koizumi, Abe lacks both experience and the first-hand knowledge of backdoor maneuvering to fight effectively against such practices. But the support of rank and file party members that he enjoys can serve as a crucial factor in overcoming that drawback. At the same time, to ensure that his support base remains intact, the new Japanese prime minister needs to prove to voters that he is capable of delivering the promises that he made. A crucial test for Abe will come next summer during the upper house election. If by then Abe fails to show voters anything substantial, he could find himself leading the party in an uphill battle to ensure the majority in the upper house that the ruling coalition now enjoys. As a result, he doesn't have much time to spare and ponder upon his tremendous success in becoming the youngest prime minister in post-war Japan. Monzurul Huq is a Daily Star columnist.
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