Yes, it is they who will sway things in the upcoming general elections (2007) as well. No coalition -- however big it may be -- is going to win the elections unless the non-partisan voters side with them. I also feel prompted to add that no vote bank could counteract the floating voters in the past nor will they succeed in the next general elections.

The floating voters are just like mammoth upsurge with outstanding capability to easily outsmart the so-called vote banks. In my opinion, Nazim Kamran Choudhury, in his outstanding analysis and predictions on Election 2007, printed in The Daily Star on October 6, has very rightly pointed out a debacle for BNP-JI-JP combine. This is, however, not to mean that the current opposition parties deserve to win big in the next general elections for their effective role during the last five years against the misrule of the incumbents, it is more for the reason that the masses have still to get a viable political alternative.

Moreover, the public is raring to answer back the sheer misgovernance presented by the current coalition in terms of power crisis, price hike, insatiable corruption, gross human rights violation, repulsive use of security personnel, unprecedented politicisation of almost all sectors of the country, and what not. To be more precise, power crisis and price hike are going to cost the current coalition heavily. Yes, the math is as simple as that. Rice, sugar, vegetables, and even chola during holy Ramadan were dear to the average countrymen. It is thus very likely that votes, too, would turn dear to the current ruling coalition in the next general elections.

The fasting Muslims were not provided with power (electricity) at least at Sehri, Iftar, and Tarabi prayers, so it is not unlikely that the people will snatch the magical wend of power from the said coalition. Mind you, the current BNP coalition hardly deserved a landslide victory in 2001 for their efforts and achievement. Rather, the then anti-AL stance of the floating voters handed them victory on a plate. The power-mongers in the country are powerful enough to manipulate things but only to an extent.

In the final analysis, however, it is the people's power that overpowers other monstrous powers or it is the public wrath that pulverizes the monolith of power at least on the day of general elections. Many, including the bigwigs in the ruling party may have the misconceived notion that money can buy votes. Sorry, I beg to differ. Vote-purchase might succeed to a degree but not definitely in large measure. Poor yet spirited people of Bangladesh have by now become clever so much so that they might accept the money offered by the affluent candidates and they can even swear by God to vote for them.

It, however, does not guarantee their votes. Because, the rationale is quite simple: if an undeserving candidate can buy votes through means which are unjust, why will it be unjust for the deprived and battered masses to vote against the undeserving candidates of the tyrannical political parties while in power, especially the immediate incumbents? Besides, the Islam and India factors are also very unlikely to work, let alone work wonders, and more so this time around. Admittedly, people have been made to suffer greatly by the so-called Islamic parties who adopted militancy.

Many know full well about the catalytic role of the current ruling coalition's Islamic allies in abrupt rise of militants who at one stage ventured to tear apart the nation by horrible series and suicide bombings. The religious yet liberal Muslims are also very unlikely to forget the horrific scenes of bomb blasts at the holy shrines of great saints who were instrumental in bringing Islam to this land. Whatever might have been the desire of the forces behind the militants, the image-damage will definitely pinch them more than anybody else because people will no doubt be less sympathetic to their political Islam this time around.

Anyway, a colleague of mine with economics background predicted months ago that the current ruling coalition would not get even 60 seats in the next general elections if the elections are held in a free and impartial manner. Mr Nazim Kamran Choudhury has predicted about 80 seats for the BNP-JI-JP combine (provided the JP join the combine). I think such sorts of observations are rapidly beginning to become a herd instinct.

Arguably, elections in Bangladesh are profoundly influenced by immediate public sentiment, which is now clearly against the ruling political parties. If anything too dramatic does not happen in between, very few eyebrows would be raised should the predictions come true in full bloom.

Kazi SM Khasrul Alam Quddusi is Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, University of Chittagong.