In five districts in greater Rangpur, it is now a talk of the town to which alliance Ershad would goeither joining it or forming electoral alliance. Though Ershad at a recent press conference in Dhaka also hinted about running the polls race alone, the political circles claimed that this will not benefit his party much in the region now as the Ershad craze during 1996 and 2001 elections is no more among voters.

The political analysts claimed that Jatiyo Party (JP) will gain more if it makes an understanding with 14-party alliance, because, in 2001 polls, Awami League considerably narrowed its vote difference with the winning party in constituencies where its candidates lost as runners up.

But like BNP leaders, local Awami League aspirants also oppose Jatiya Party's joining the alliance or any understanding, claiming that their position is much better now in all the 22 seats in the five districts of Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Gaibandha, Rangpur and Nilpahmari, political circles said.

"We do not need to sacrifice any seat for Jatiya Party. We ran second in most of the seats we lost (in last election) and our position is much better now", a top leader of Nilphamari district AL told this correspondent.

As per data collected from the election office here, JP got 16,46,624 votes and Awami League (AL) got 13,53,256 votes in 2001 election in all the 22 constituencies in five districts.

Contesting for 13 seats as alliance candidates, BNP got 6,63,000 votes and its ally Jamaat, contesting for seven seats, got 4,86,692 votes.

Awami League's smaller allies now forming the 14-party alliance had got only 18,346 votes in the area.

In Nilphamari, AL's ally JSD (Inu) and Workers Party contested in two seats out of four. In Nilphamari-3, JSD (Inu) candidate Azizul Islam got only 496 votes and Workers Party candidate Noor Mohammad Khan got 1,743 votes in Nilphamari-1 constituency in 2001 election.

Similar was the position of AL's allies in most other constituencies in the area. Only 4 or 5 parties of the 14 party combine are active in the area, the analysts said.

According to statistics, if JP joins the BNP-led 4-party alliance, their total votes, as per the 2001 polls, stand at 27,36,316 (JP's 16,46,624 + BNP's 6,63,000 + Jamaat's 4,86,692). There is virtually no existence of two other parties of the 4-party alliance in greater Rangpur.

On the other hand, if JP makes alliance with 14-party combine, their total votes stand at 30,15,380 ( AL's 13,53,256 + 13 parties' 18,345).

From this calculation, it is evident that if Ershad joins hands with 14-party, it will be easier for the combine to snatch victory in most of the seats, they claimed.

In 2001 election, JP got 13 seats, AL four, BNP three and Jamaat got two seats out of 22 in greater Rangpur. In 1996 election, JP got 21 seats and Jamaat only one. Both BNP and AL went nil.

"That (in 1996 polls) was an unusual situation because there was an Ershad craze. That craze is absent now", claimed a top AL leader in Nilphamari seeking anonymity.

Ershad's demand for nomination of party man in all the 22 constituencies provoked a sharp reaction among local leaders of both the alliances.

Kazi Aminul Haque, former general secretary of Nilphamari district AL said, greater Rangpur is a traditional stronghold of AL and the party earlier bagged most of the 22 seats since 1970, which we lost to JP in 1990 and 1996 elections.

In 2001, we won four seats and narrowed the vote difference with JP by 2,93,368, which was over 6 lakh in 1996. Our position is much better now, he claimed.

Aftab Uddin Sarker, Dimla upazila AL president claimed that the 14-party combine will form the next government. So it would be wise for Ershad not to press for more parliamentary seats but to seek other benefits.

Local BNP leaders are also reluctant to welcome Ershad in the alliance. Rangpur municipal BNP recently demanded alliance ticket for party's district secretary party Habibun Nabi Shoel from Rangpur-3 (Sadar) constituency. Party leaders there vowed to resist JP candidate there.

Nilphamari district BNP secretary Anisul Arefin Chowdhury said the party men want Shahrin Islam Tuhin to contest from NIlphamari-1, Asadul Habib Dulu from Lalmonirhat-3, Shamim Kaisar Lincon from Gaibandha-4, Amzad Hossain Sarker from Nilphamari-4, and Rahim Uddin Bhrsa from Rangpur-4 constituency.

District Jamaat Ameer Mozzamel Haque said that in 2001 election Jamaat contested in 7 seats in greater Rangpur. "This time we expect more seats", he said.