Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 924 Thu. January 04, 2007  
   
Point-Counterpoint


Perspectives
Stay the course?


In 2000, James Baker came to the rescue when it appeared that George Bush, the Republican presidential candidate might sink in Florida. The lawyer in him instinctively persuaded the parties concerned that the electoral dispute must be referred to the Supreme Court where, he was convinced, the conservative majority would deliver a positive result. And he was right.

Years later, George Bush, now the US president, is irretrievably stuck in Iraq, where he has made a mess of his policy, resulting in the possible break-up of the country amidst mounting sectarian strife. In recognition of the unfolding disaster, a congressional initiative earlier this month led to the establishment of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group (ISG). Baker was back to the scene as its co-chairman. The group did not, however, receive publicity until the Republicans faced monumental popular backlash in recently-held mid-term election. It was only then that the ISG was transformed into a panacea.

A rattled Bush hoped against hope that Uncle Jim -- who served his father as secretary of state and is considered a close family friend -- would once again ride to his rescue. In the given circumstances Baker did his best, but was unable to prevent the ISG report from being viewed as the Bush administration's second serious blow within a month following the election verdict of November that delivered both the houses of Congress to the Democrats. Bush could hardly draw any comfort from the report.

The ideologues of the far-right involved in pushing Bush for Iraq misadventure are up in arms against the ISG report, although its 79 proposals do not contain anything that can even vaguely be construed as radical. On the military front its advice barely differs from the strategy that the administration has already evolved -- with greater emphasis than before on the training of the locally recruited troops and getting them to do the dirty work with the US forces only in supportive role. However, the problem is that the strategy isn't working.

The ISG calls for the gradual withdrawal of US combat units from early 2008 contingent upon the ability of the proxy forces to sustain in power a US-friendly regime with reduced American assistance. It also implicitly accepted the imperative for an indefinite US military presence in the region.

The ideologues are even less thrilled by the Baker commission's emphasis on a new diplomatic offensive that involves an international support group consisting of Iraq's neighbours, other regional powers, the US, the EU, and other interested countries.

Perhaps the neo-con cabal is irked in part at the brutal and frank assessment of the existing situation. It is also particularly averse to the idea of a place at the table for Syria and Iran and the suggestion that the US should unconditionally engage in dialogue with these two nations, leaving the dilemma of Iran's nuclear ambition to UN security council.

But it was apparently in response to developments last month, when according to the US press, the Saudi regime effectively summoned Dick Cheney to Riyadh and issued a stark warning: if the US pulls out of Iraq, the Saudis will he obliged to step into the breach in order to protect minority Arab Sunni community, even if it entails war with Iran.

The ISG's proposal appears to be motivated in part by the presumption that a platform for negotiation would reduce the likelihood of such hostilifies breaking out. Washington's far-right cheer crowd, however, look upon the contemplated regional conference as a cover for the occupying forces "cutting and running," although this suspicion is not substantiated.

A precipitate withdrawal may be the least damaging option available to the US. The fear that it would lead to an upsurge in violence may well be exaggerated. There is at least a chance that once the indignity of brutal occupation is removed from the occupation a sobriety will prevail and Iraqis will be increasingly inclined to work out modus vivendi as an alternative to open-ended sectarian violence.

This may to be an over-optimistic conjecture. But had the ISG called for an immediate withdrawal, that would have been out there in public in spite of Bush's rejection. As things stand now, President Bush has virtually rejected the bipartisan ISG recommendation for a withdrawal of American troops even by the first quarter of 2008.

Unfortunately neither the ISG, composed of luminaries with impeccable conservative credentials, could come out of its warped mindset, nor the president himself was in a mood to avail the opportunity for changing course Iraq.

Under the circumstances, President Bush seems happy to "stay the course" which will mean the continuation of the slaughter already underway. So far, by estimates worked out by an American think-tank, the civilian casualties have reached the unbelievable figure of 600,000 dead, with the American death toll has crossed 3,000. But George Bush refuses to be rescued this time, even by Uncle Jim.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.