The daily Ittefaq's report (January 13) shows how short supply of diesel and fertilizers are going to adversely affect boro cultivation in the western districts. The New Nation of January 13 shows how fuel and fertilizer crisis may hit boro cultivation in the northern region of the country.

The Financial Express of January 10 has written that growers in northern districts are now facing an acute shortage of urea fertilizer and diesel during this peak plantation season of boro crop. Reference may be made to more such reports from the print media.

Rice is the staple food of Bangladesh, providing about 93 percent of the country's total cereal intake, and about 75 percent of the calories in our diet. It is a fact that food grain (rice and wheat) production has been more than doubled since independence in 1971.

The sustained efforts by the successive governments had a salutary effect on the production of food grains that reached 26.75 million metric tons (mmt) in 2000-2001, which was till then the highest production of food grains in the country.

But the increasing trend of production of food grains could not be sustained. Food ministry sources reveal that in 2001-02, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2005-06, production of food grains stood at 25.90 mmt, 26.69 mmt, 27.44 mmt, 26.13 mmt, and 27.59 mmt against population of 131 million, 133 million, 135 million, 137 million, and 139 million, respectively.

This shows that food grain production could not keep pace with the annual population growth rate.

Among the three major rice crops aus, aman, and boro, aman continued to top the list until 1997-98. Available statistics show that in 1998-99, aman was replaced by boro as the highest producing rice. Since then, boro has continued to top the list.

For instance, in the FY1997-98, aman production stood at 8.85 mmt while boro production was 8.14 mmt. In the FY 2002-03, boro production stood at 12.22 mmt while aman production was 11.12 mmt. In the last FY (2005-06), boro production was 13.98 mmt while aman production stood at 10.81 mmt.

It is also to be noted in this connection that more areas have been brought under boro cultivation while the areas under aman cultivation have remained more or less the same.

Boro rice cultivation has got both advantages and disadvantages. Important advantages of boro rice cultivation are: first, yields of high-yielding variety (HYV) boro yield is higher than yields of other types of rice; second, boro crop is normally resistant to natural disaster; and third, there is no overlapping with any other major crop.

But the problems that the farmers frequently face are short supply of fertilizer and diesel, and non-availability of electricity during boro season. We are aware of the fertilizer crisis in 1995, as well as of the diesel, fertilizer and electricity crisis during the boro season of 2006. We have even seen the killing of farmers when they demanded electricity to irrigate their boro crop.

While aman, the next important rice crop, requires little irrigation since it is typically grown, in the most part, when the monsoon is in full swing, boro rice is grown completely under the irrigated ecosystem during the dry period.

The scarcity of diesel and fertilizer, and their high prices, make rice production in general and boro production in particular, costly. The result has been high prices of all varieties of rice even during harvesting seasons, which seriously affects the poor and the lower middle class in particular, as 50 percent or so of their earnings is spent on procuring rice.

Production target of food grains in FY 2006-07 has been set at 32.98 mmt (aus:2.22 mmt, aman:13.18 mmt and boro:16.74 mmt and wheat 0.83 mmt), about 21 percent higher than last year's actual production.

The first rice crop of the FY 2006-07, aus has already been harvested. According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), this year's aus production was 1.51 mmt, about 13 percent less than last year (1.75 mmt).

Harvesting of aman for the FY 2006-07 is going on. Available information suggests that there will be shortfall in achieving the aman production target of 13.18 mmt. Maximum production may reach 12 mmt.

Here lies the importance of not only achieving the boro production target for this year, but also of exceeding the production target if possible.

Although the incumbent caretaker government (CTG) will remain busy with the holding of the 9th election to parliament peacefully, fairly and impartially, yet it has to give utmost attention to avoiding any crisis in the availability of fertilizer, diesel and electricity to farmers for making boro cultivation fully successful.

As for diesel, it appears to be a distributional problem. In respect of fertilizer, there are reports that all the major factories are producing below their respective capacities. If domestic production of fertilizer is not sufficient to meet the demand for the boro season, procurement from abroad must receive priority.

It has to be ensured that the smuggling of fertilizer and fuel across the border does not take place. Ensuring supply of electricity may be a hard task due to the big gap between generation capacity and the increasing demands (annually above 10 percent or so).

The problem may be largely solved by restricting supply of electricity to households and commercial establishments in the urban and semi-urban areas during peak hours so that farmers get electricity to the maximum extent possible for irrigating their boro crop. There must not be a repetition of last year's tragic incident.

As stated above, this year's aus production has failed to achieve the target. There are all indications that aman production will also not meet the target. The main thrust should be on the next boro crop. All possible facilities and assistance must be rendered to farmers to attain a production level that will surpass all other previous records of boro production in the country.

M. Abdul Latif Mondal is a former Secretary to the Government.