The announcement, widely anticipated, meant the end of Chirac's remarkable 45 year political career, which included 12 years of presidency, two terms as prime minister and 18 years as mayor of Paris. His failing health and declining public support finally made Chirac bow out of French politics.

In his television address Chirac did not endorse his party's presidential candidate Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy. But in a clear reference to the far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen, he urged the voters to reject "extremism, racism and anti-Semitism." It may be recalled, Le Pen had stunned the whole world at the last presidential elections in April 2002 when he had decisively defeated the Socialist candidate Prime Minister Lionel Jospan at the first round and had moved to the run off with Chirac.

How will history judge the Chirac presidency? Well, he leaves behind a mixed legacy. Washington will surely remember him for his strong opposition to, and rallying of international support, against the US-led invasion of Iraq. However in view of France's special position in the Middle East, both the countries actively cooperated on Lebanon, Iran and Palestine-Israel issues.

To his countryman, Chirac had personified the image of a regal French leader, super elegant and debonair, and often temperamental who bluntly criticized his European Union allies. He was fond of good living and a staunch defender of French language and culture. However, his standing gradually dropped, especially during the last two years of his presidency.

Chirac, a strong supporter of new EU constitution, suffered a major political setback last year when the French voters summarily rejected it in a national referendum. His popularity further plummeted when his economic reform package failed to arrest the economic woes, unemployment remained record high, racial discrimination worsened and France's overseas clout diminished.

After riots in the suburbs of Paris in 2005, and labor and student strikes last year, his public support plunged to record lows. Only 2% of French people surveyed expressed their readiness to support him for a third term. In September 2005, he suffered a mini-stroke and in view of strong leadership challenge within his party, maintained a low profile since then.

Major contenders
There are four main candidates in the arena to replace him: the front runner is the Conservative party, Union for a Popular Movement's nominee Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy; the Socialist Party's candidate Segolene Royal-the first lady aspirant for the highest job; the Centrist Party, Union for French Democracy's nominee Francois Bayrou; and the far-right National Front's nominee, Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Until recently, Royal had been cruising ahead of Sarkozy and it had appeared that France was going to have the first lady president. But the scenario changed dramatically a couple of months ago when the centrist candidate Bayrou joined the race. In latest polling Sarkozy is leading by 26%, followed by Royal 25%, Bayrou 24% and Le Pen 14%. Of course, all these figures may keep on changing during the coming five weeks.

Since none of the candidates are likely to secure 50% of the votes at the first round on 22 April, the elections will surely go to the second round on May 8, when the two top candidates will face each other.

The second round will mark the turning point in this race. If its Sarkozy and Royal, then the former is expected to beat the latter in the second round by a comfortable margin as a good chunk of centrist votes could go to him. Furthermore, the leftist camp has been deeply divided between the "mainstream" left which accepts the market economy, represented by the French Socialist party, and some leftist groups which question or reject the market economy.

If Bayrou and Sarkozy move to the second round, then the centrist and the left wing voters might get together to defeat Sarkozy. In 2002 there was a similar situation when the centrist, socialist and conservatives got behind Chirac and defeated ultra-right Le Pen by a landslide at the second round.

Bayrou, who has always been a centrist politician, with a definite lean to the right, has refurbished his image in such a manner that voters find very little difference between his program and Royal's. Given this scenario, it should be in Sarkozy's interest that his hitherto arch rival Royal moves to the second round.

This third option, a Sarkozy-Royal runoff, is the least likely but it is possible only if Sarkozy support base shrinks dramatically. Sarkozy is aware of this possibility, and he has been wooing the far-right supporters, by promising the creation of a separate "immigration and national identity ministry" basically to stop immigration from their African colonies.

Royal and Bayrou camps and the French activist groups have already mounted a campaign against Sarkozy on this issue. Sarkozy had earlier earned the wrath of the human rights groups for his tough handling of the rioters in 2005. As a ranking Minister, Sarkozy is also vulnerable to attacks on account of failures of the present government. Furthermore, since he had declared his candidature before others, he has nothing new to offer.

The race is thus just heating up and no candidate has so far emerged as a clear winner. The French presidential elections have always defied predictions of political pundits and we should "expect the unexpected."

Syed Muazzem Ali, a former Foreign Secretary, served as Bangladesh Ambassador to France from 1998-2001.